Économie, emploi

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

La Diplomatie économique : le diplomate et le marché

Sous-titré Le diplomate et le marché, ce livre est plus riche que son titre ne le laisse deviner. On y trouve un abrégé d'histoire économique et monétaire, un manuel d'économie internationale, une explication de la mondialisation, mais aussi de précieux renseignements sur les mécanismes de définition et de coordination des politiques nationales visant ce domaine nécessairement partagé entre affaires étrangères, affaires économiques et finances. Ayant occupé de hauts postes dans la diplomatie économique française, à Rome puis à ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Territoires, réseaux

France, portrait social 1998-1999

La deuxième édition de France, portrait social, fruit du travail des spécialistes de l'INSEE et des services statistiques publics, met à disposition de tous un ensemble d'indicateurs sociaux essentiels, portant sur l'année 1997 et le premier semestre 1998. La réflexion nourrie par cet ouvrage est également favorisée par sa périodicité : d'une année sur l'autre, les comparaisons permettent de replacer les événements marquants dans la perspective des grandes évolutions sociales. Proposée en ouverture du document et ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail

Travail ou revenu ? Pour un revenu inconditionnel

Un petit livre au petit format qui résume parfaitement bien les différentes positions des partisans d'un revenu social déconnecté du travail. Un genre de « Que sais-je ? » des théories du revenu inconditionnel où l'auteur nous présente bien les positions des différents gourous de cette approche. Toutefois, ce n'est pas un livre objectif où les arguments favorables seraient équilibrés par des arguments critiques. On peut considérer qu'il s'agit d'un argumentaire comparé en faveur du revenu inconditionnel.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi

Réduire les subventions pour améliorer l’environnement

Les dépenses consacrées aux mesures de soutien à l'agriculture, à l'énergie, aux transports et à l'industrie demeurent élevées, d'après une nouvelle étude émanant d'experts des questions fiscales et environnementales des pays de l'OCDE. Qui plus est, ces mesures de soutien s'avèrent écologiquement coûteuses et préjudiciables car elles favorisent l'émission de polluants, la production de déchets et la surexploitation des ressources naturelles. Les montants correspondants, qui pèsent lourdement sur les finances publiques, risquent ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Population

The Great Population Spike and After : Reflections on the 21st Century

Dans cet ouvrage, W.W. Rostow explique que l'on peut observer le « grand pic démographique » de l'humanité au travers d'un graphique retraçant les taux de croissance de la population mondiale depuis 8000 ans avant J.C. jusqu'à l'an 8000 de notre ère. Un tel graphique montrerait, selon lui, un taux de croissance démographique moyen égal à zéro, excepté pour la période comprise entre 1776 et 2176. « C'est au cours de cette période, dit-il, que ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Le Kondratieff. Essai de théorie des cycles longs économiques et politiques

Dans les années 20, l'économiste soviétique N.D. Kondratieff étudiant la dynamique longue de l'économie capitaliste, élaborait une construction statistique montrant la succession de « vagues ascendantes » et de « vagues descendantes », en matière de prix, salaires, innovations..., depuis la fin du XVIIIe siècle. Une décennie plus tard, J. Schumpeter rendit hommage à ce travail en donnant le nom de Kondratieff (alors déporté en Sibérie où il mourra) aux cycles longs d'origine technologique que lui-même définissait dans son ouvrage ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

France : le mythe du néoconservatisme. Vote Front national et évolution des valeurs

The Myth of French Neoconservatism. The National Front Vote and the Evolution of Values
Increasing popularity of the Front National in legislative elections since 1986 has been interpreted by some as a neoconservative turn in French society toward xenophobic, authoritarian, and traditionalist values. Etienne Schweisguth demonstrates here that the interpretation is flawed, and that in fact liberal, anti-authoritarian humanism is on the rebound. The FN owes its success, he points out, to being the only party with a radical mandate. It is a natural magnet for all those who have been marginalized: the uneducated are the principal victims of exclusion and insecurity.
Schweisguth uses birth cohorts and generation effects as the basis of his analysis, which is a more pertinent approach to identifying trends than one based on age and time period. It allows him to demonstrate that authoritarian values are on the decline in French society and that the rise of liberal humanitarism is linked to better education and the spread of the ideas of the enlightment.
Making use of 1978, 1988, 1995 and 1997 surveys conducted by the CEVIPOF, he stresses that FN success at the polls is due mainly to protest votes from the least favoured. Their vote is not so much an endorsement of the ideas of the FN as it is the expression of deep discontent over socio-economic changes which leave them out in the cold.
Schweisguth concludes that more resources for education and the reinsertion of the excluded into society will be a more effective counter to further FN gains than the appropriation of its themes by democratic parties, whether of the right or of the left.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Innovation et croissance

Les faibles marges de manœuvre laissées à la politique conjoncturelle du fait de l'appartenance à l'Union européenne et monétaire amènent à s'interroger sur les autres instruments dont disposent les gouvernements pour infléchir la croissance et l'efficacité du système productif. Robert Boyer et Michel Didier nous invitent à une réflexion sur les moyens susceptibles d'influencer les entreprises et les amener à une démarche plus novatrice. Dans la compétition mondiale, l'innovation est la condition de la ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Éducation

Les Jeunes face à l’emploi

La question du rapport entre les jeunes et l'emploi est au cœur du débat social, et ceci n'est pas étonnant, car c'est probablement une des questions les plus importantes. Nos sociétés contemporaines, on le sait, reposent sur l'innovation et le changement social. Dans ces conditions, elles ne peuvent être gérées uniquement par les individus les plus âgés, censés incarner la tradition et la routine. Comment faire en sorte que les générations montantes aient la place qui ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi

La réduction du temps de travail aux Pays-Bas

The Working Time Reduction in the Netherlands
We published in issue 222 of Futuribles (July-August 1997) an article by Jean-Yves Boulin and Gilbert Cette under the title "The Reduction of the Working Time: the Case of the Netherlands", which excited a lot of interest. Some of our readers pointed out, however, that the drop of unemployment in the Netherlands may be less spectacular than depicted by the official data, and that economic and social performance were not as promising as stated by the authors of the article.
We shall go deeper into the subject in another issue. In the meantime, the authors wish to correct some statistical errors in the article (repeated in the covering abstract) for which we want to apologize: the workforce in France increased between 1982 and 1996 by 7% (not by 2.9%), while it increased by 20.5% in the Netherlands (not by 8.1%). On the other hand, the purchasing power of the employed has increased not by "less than 12%" as stated, but by less than 2% in the Netherlands (as compared with 8% in France) from 1979 to 1996.
Jean-Yves Boulin and Gilbert Cette have acknowledged the ambiguity of some of the published data and they have clarified them. They also wish to point out, though, that the new data reinforce their interpretation that there is a double process in which reduced working time and wage moderation have a positive effect on employment.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

Les réseaux de transport transeuropéens

Trans-European Transportation Networks. The Missing Link Between History and Geography ?
The coming of a unified market and the consequent growth of trade within the European Union should logically be accompanied by a policy to encourage the knitting of national transportation systems into a Community network. In view of greater cohesion, the more remote regions should be pulled together lest they find themselves marginalized.
From numerous studies dedicated to this issue, the European Council of Essen (1994) eventually selected fourteen priority projects which, if put into place, should also stimulate economic growth and employement in the short and long term.
Claude Martinand, however, deplores the lack of adequate financial provision for these projects and the habitual hesitation entailed in coupling public institutions with the private sector. Without dwelling on the wisdom or desirability of these grand schemes, Martinand's text is testimony to the difficulty of uniting means with ambitions in building Europe.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

L’émergence technologique de l’Asie orientale

The Technological Emergence of East Asia
Many important innovations originated in East Asia, especially China, but were not effectively exploited there. Today this reputation is being rapidly put to rest as a powerful dynamic of development emerges in the region. It combines an aggressive process of acquiring scientific discoveries with one of exploiting technological innovations effectively for commercial gain.
The authors of this paper explore the steps taken by East Asia to establish itself as a pillar of techno-economic development-noting that they exacted a high price in social, cultural, institutional and political transformation.
They show also how this region has acquired a degree of autonomy vis-à-vis the West and woven strong links of intensified trade and cooperation across the region. These will give it unprecedented power from now on.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Mondialisation et inégalités

La mondialisation est un phénomène aux dimensions multiples, symboliques, réelles et idéologiques. Au plan symbolique, elle renvoie au déclin relatif des pays riches et, en ce sens, constitue une bonne nouvelle puisqu'elle signifie que les pays pauvres se développent. Au plan réel, la mondialisation joue dans deux sens opposés : la globalisation financière accroît les inégalités entre les profits et les salaires, tandis que la globalisation des marchés, elle, accroît les inégalités de salaire (et d'emploi) entre les personnes ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

Universalisme moral et tri économique

Who Are We? Universal Ethics and Economic Triage
UNESCO took the happy step a few years ago of organizing philosophic forums around questions which are elementary on the surface, but which always give rise to passionate debates between philosophers and historians, and, more generally, between exact scientists and humanists. One such question is "who are we?"
The second of these philosophic forums was hosted by UNESCO in Paris from the 27th to the 30th of March in 1996. The question at issue was the status of moral universalism at the end of the 20th century. We inherited this great idea from the era of enlightenment, but it is now threatened by economic globalization, disintegration of the public domain, the loss of collective referents and fiercely competitive individualism. The combination puts at risk the universal human values on which our societies are founded.
Richard Rorty, a distinguished professor of philosophy at the University of Virginia, was charged with launching the debate. He did so in a particularly provocative manner by showing how the globalized economy amounts to a triage, selecting the privileged who enjoy universal rights from the poor who, by the logic of the economic mechanism, are relegated to the margins of a system which proclaims universal values while becoming more and more unequal. His text, which should obviously be read in its North American context, is published in this issue.

Revue

Économie, emploi

France : Conférence nationale sur l’emploi

Il est d'usage en France que, à l'issue de la constitution d'un nouveau gouvernement, le Premier ministre fasse devant l'Assemblée nationale une "déclaration de politique générale" . Le nouveau chef du gouvernement, Lionel Jospin, a ainsi présenté le 19 juin 1997 les grandes orientations de la politique qu'il entend mener - y compris son intention "d'entamer une réduction négociée de la durée du travail" - et annoncé l'organisation en septembre d'une "conférence nationale sur les ...

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Forum

Économie, emploi

Observations sur les observations de Gilbert Cette

Je veux commencer par dire tout le gré que je sais à la revue futuribles et au Professeur Gilbert Cette d'avoir souhaité poursuivre et enrichir le débat sur les causes du chômage, ce drame contemporain qui menace la cohésion de nos sociétés, et sur les moyens de le réduire. C'est donc en sympathie que je réponds à la demande de réagir aux observations de Gilbert Cette.

Forum

Économie, emploi

Chômage : « les moyens d’en sortir »

Michel Rocard, Premier ministre du gouvernement français de 1988 à 1991, a publié en novembre 1996 un ouvrage dans lequel il analyse les principales causes de la crise économique et sociale - particulièrement le chômage - qui sévit en France et propose "les moyens d'en sortir", notamment par une réduction du temps de travail. L'actualité du propos reste vive. Néanmoins Gilbert Cette conteste ici le bien-fondé de l'analyse et, outre le reproche adressé au Premier ministre de ne point ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Le marché mondial des drogues

Prenant appui sur les travaux de l'Observatoire géopolitique des drogues, Alain Labrousse brosse ici un panorama des tendances les plus marquantes du marché mondial des drogues illicites. Il montre d'abord que la production des principales drogues augmente, année après année, du fait de l'extension et de la diversification des surfaces cultivées, imputables notamment aux politiques d'ajustement structurel et, plus généralement, à la nécessité pour nombre de pays de s'engager dans des activités à plus forte ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi

Réduire la durée du temps de travail : l’exemple des Pays-Bas

Le gouvernement français a annoncé l'organisation en septembre 1997 d'une "conférence nationale sur les salaires, l'emploi et le temps de travail" dont un des objectifs principaux sera d'examiner comment mettre en oeuvre une réduction du temps de travail entraînant une répartition plus équitable de celui-ci au sein de la population active. L'expérience des Pays-Bas en ce domaine est intéressante puisque leur taux de chômage est passé de 12 % à 6,5 % entre 1983 et 1996 ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Réduction du temps de travail et emploi : du bon usage de la loi Robien

Reduction of Working Time and Employment. An evaluation of the Robien Law
The left, having won the French legislative elections of June 1st, has obviously geared its campaign to fighting unemployment and the "social gap" - just as Jacques Chirac did when he was a candidate in the presidential elections. The shortening of the work week to 35 hours without a reduction in salary is one of the main measures that the Left promised to adopt. Today it has to bear the responsibility of establishing a policy which, in employment matters, will have to be more efficient than what was offered by previous governments themselves unable to stop either the rise in unemployment or, a fortiori, the rise in under-employment.
The new government inherits from the previous legislature the "Robien Law", passed on June 11, 1996. Thanks to a reduction in payroll taxes, it offers enterprises an incentive to shorten working time without cutting salaries too greatly in order to create new jobs or to preserve jobs otherwise threatened.
Though recent, this law has played an important role in helping on the one hand the renegotiation of new collective agreement and on the another in concluding many agreements on the consolidation if not creation of jobs. This initiative came from the Right (and as such was opposed by the Left in times we hoped past) and its collective costs have given rise to several conflicting estimates which fed strong controversies.
These estimates came too soon, as Hervé Passeron vice-president of BIPE explains. In association with the firm Bernard Brunhes, he was given the task by the Finance Commission of the National Assembly of making a first estimate on the basis of already concluded agreements. The BIPE, using its models of macroeconomic forecasts which take into account secondary effects, produces here a quantitative estimate of the advantages of direct and indirect costs which could result from a generalisation of the "Robien agreements".
According to Hervé Passeron, there is no doubt that this measure is far more effective and less costy than all the other measures used to fight unemployment so far. Our readers will judge for themselves and we will welcome those who wish to add to the debate.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

L’avenir de Hong Kong. L’après-1997 est déjà là

The Future of Hong Kong Post-1997 is already here
On June 30th 1997 at midnight, Hong Kong - a British colony since 1942 - will rejoin China where it will become a "special administrative region". What will become of Hong Kong then, a real democratic capitalist enclave in the Chinese world?
The Sino-British agreement provides that Hong Kong economic social and political systems would be respected for fifty years. China could derive a double advantage: not kill the goose that lays the golden eggs and above all foreshadow in a positive way a reunification which would extend to Macau and Taiwan beyond Hong Kong.
Nonetheless China did not wait for the fateful date on the first of July to put into question the democratic regime in Hong Kong. It has already established a provisional legislative council intented to substitute for the present Parliament and named a Chief Executive of the Region completely convinced of Beijing approach. The democratic institutions wouldnot have lasted a long time.
As for economic issues, the integration of Hong Kong and China particularly its coastal provinces has already occurred. China derives great benefit from it even if one could question the longevity of Hong Kong prosperity after the abolition of the law-based state.And thus that will be the end of the Hong Kong exception except, as Sophie Marquié asks us to consider, the longer term outlook of an island which consists of a world metropolis rather than a Chinese village and has gained a political culture which will not be forgotten.
In addition the Beijing regime already being destabilized and with very unequal developmentamong its provinces, the risk of the disintegration of the Chinese empire and of democratic contamination of a continent should not be excluded in the long term.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

L’Europe à l’heure britannique

Europe along the British Path? The Euro and defence in the "Scenarios 2012"
The present debate about Europe is excessively - if not exclusively - centered on the Euro and the convergence criteria of Maastricht. But, emphasize Albert Bressand and Emmanuelle Maincent, the major issues lie elsewhere; they are related more to Europe's capacity to adopt an economic policy and a common foreign and defence policy. And seen in this light, the United Kingdom could well play a driving role in part because it is economically more advanced than the continental countries and on the other hand because of the Franco-British defence axis.
The authors present five scenarios for Europe in 2012 which are constructed on the basis of two main axes: on one hand the degree of economic integration, on the other the degree of "Europeanization" of defence policy which are both viewed from the point of view of "European governance".
On the basis of five contrasting hypothesis on economic integration and three hypothesis on foreign and defence policy, they present:
- two extremes scenarios that of Non Europe and that of the United States of Europe ;
- three hybrid scenarios: a scenario which contrary to all expectations would see instituted the common and foreign defence policy, not the Euro. The other the Euro without the common foreign defence policy and the third would be distinguished by differentiated Europes.
According to the authors, the United Kingdom could play a major role in this logic of political and economic governance. Economically it opposes to Franco German concepts a pragmatism which has proven its relevance especially by relying on the logic of the market. Politically because the British, in addition to the fact that they represent advanced democracy, have a long term vision of Europe which the continental countries scarcely do.
A real message of welcome to Tony Blair, this article provides useful material to leave behind the purely technical debate over the adoption of the Euro.

Forum

Économie, emploi - Population - Société, modes de vie

Immigration : le laboratoire américain

Immigration: the American Laboratory
The two articles which we are publishing here report on the debate already under way in the United States on immigration, its melting pot experience and its ability to integrate socially minorities and foreigners.
First, Nicole Morgan outlines the point of view of David N. Kennedy and George J. Borjas as they stated it in two recent articles published in the magazine The Atlantic Monthly. These articles emphasize the influence of socio economic factors (the advantages and costs of immigration) as against the cultural issue and each in their own way raises the issue of the ability of American society and the economy to achieve integration given the quality of the immigrants.
Rémy Oudghiri reports on the book by Dale Maharidge The Coming White Minority which shows the fear of whites in the process of becoming a minority in California and underlines the risk of seeing society disrupted by stronger segregation. R. Oudghiri also shows how much the economic dynamism of California favours the process of integration.
These two papers put into perspective the importance of the ethnic and cultural differences always brought up in numerous debates. They underline on the other hand the role of social and economic factors which are often underestimated in Europe.

Chapitre Economie, emploi

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.