Économie, emploi

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Économie, emploi

Modernité du corporatisme

Directeur de recherche au Centre d'étude de la vie politique française (CEVIPOF), l'auteur nous livre ici une réflexion stimulante sur la signification de la persistance et de l'amplification du phénomène corporatif, en s'efforçant d'échapper aux jugements de valeur simplistes récurrents le concernant. Insistant d'abord sur l'importance de la dimension identitaire de la crise " multipolaire " du monde du travail, Jacques Capdevielle met en relation le corporatisme avec la réapparition des identités de métier depuis ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi

O Futuro da Indústria : Oportunidades e Desafios [L’Industrie Brésilienne : opportunités et défis]

L'objectif recherché ici est une meilleure compréhension du panorama de l'industrie brésilienne. Le premier chapitre est consacré à la question du défi principal de l'économie brésilienne au cours des prochaines années qui est, sans aucun doute, l'avenir de son secteur industriel. Longtemps protégé par une politique économique de substitution des importations (1950-1970), la « décennie perdue » (1980) a révélé l'extrême fragilité du secteur et sa dépendance face à la demande extérieure. Les années 1990 ont eu ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi

Journal imprévu d’un banquier : une aventure, un métier (1943-2000)

Pierre Ledoux, ancien président de la BNP (Banque nationale de Paris), avait commencé sa carrière dans l'administration des Finances comme membre de la mission financière française en Extrême-Orient. Dans le récit de son existence active, il rapporte ce que, dès 1946 et les années qui ont suivi, il avait compris de la Chine. Ses observations restent très actuelles. « Les difficultés qui se sont souvent répétées dans ce pays, ne doivent pas faire oublier ses caractéristiques fondamentales. » Pour lui, elles ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail

Tocqueville Revisited : the Meaning of Americain Prosperity

Dans un long article de la Havard Business Review, Charles Handy s'appuie sur Tocqueville pour éclairer le futur du capitalisme américain. Il procède d'abord à quelques rappels. Tocqueville a bien vu l'une des raisons de la réussite américaine et de sa permanence. Les Américains, notamment les Puritains, sont venus dans un pays vierge pour construire une société nouvelle. Ils avaient, et gardent, confiance en eux-mêmes. La plupart sont convaincus qu'aujourd'hui est meilleur qu'hier et ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Société, modes de vie

Rapport moral sur l’argent dans le monde en 2001

Pour son huitième rapport moral sur l'argent dans le monde, l'Association d'économie financière a choisi de revenir sur quatre grands thèmes qui ont marqué le monde de la finance durant l'année 2000-2001. Sur fond de crise majeure des relations internationales et de remise en cause radicale du système financier mondial provoquée par les attentats du 11 septembre 2001, les auteurs se sont tout d'abord penchés sur les enjeux de l'économie mondialisée. Dans cette première ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

The Coming Collapse of China

Fils d'un émigrant chinois qui s'est installé aux États-Unis, l'auteur de ce livre, Gordon G. Chang, a longtemps travaillé pour un cabinet d'avocats américain implanté en Chine, avant de se consacrer à l'écriture de cet ouvrage qui n'annonce rien moins que l'effondrement du régime politique chinois aux alentours de 2006. « Aujourd'hui, quelque part dans ce pays, il y a quelqu'un qui mettra fin à l'État chinois dans sa forme actuelle ...

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Économie, emploi

Les Libéraux

L'un des effets du drame du 11 septembre 2001 est d'avoir redonné de l'espoir aux dirigistes. La guerre conduit à l'intervention de l'État. Enfin les administrations vont pouvoir justifier leur gonflement et les gouvernements leurs déficits. Alors que cette menace se précise, il n'est pas inutile de relire les « libéraux ». Pierre Manent reprend dans la très bonne collection Tel, chez Gallimard, son anthologie des « Libéraux ». Il rappelle dans son introduction que le socialisme n ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Société, modes de vie

Les Naufragés. Avec les clochards de Paris

Ce livre menant une réflexion anthropologique et psychanalytique sur la condition de vie des clochards s'organise en deux temps. Une première partie est consacrée au témoignage de l'auteur sur la vie des sans domicile fixe (SDF) qu'il a partagée à plusieurs reprises, afin de connaître leurs conditions de vie réelles, ainsi qu'au récit de son métier de psychanalyste au centre hospitalier universitaire de Nanterre pendant 15 ans. Mais l'importance fondamentale de ce livre réside sans ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi

« Réduction du temps de travail et emploi »

La réduction du temps de travail n'est pas un phénomène récent. Ce mouvement paraît universel et assez tendanciel, mais les raisons des réductions observées sont très variées selon les pays et sans doute davantage selon les époques, la lutte contre le chômage étant évidemment la plus fréquente en période de sous emploi. C'est autour de cette question de l'influence de la RTT sur l'emploi et le chômage que s'organise cette livraison d'Économie Internationale. L ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

L’impact des TIC sur la croissance. Les technologies de l’information et de la communication en France : diffusion et contribution à la croissance économique

This article examines the most recent assessments of the spread of information technology (IT) in the French economy and their contribution to growth; these evaluations are accompanied by some comparisons with the United States.
The authors start by looking at the impact of IT on the French economy, focusing first on the share of IT output in total production, and then on how they have spread throughout the whole economy. On this second point, they point out the difficulties of conducting an accurate evaluation in the absence of appropriate indicators and comparable data covering a long period. Nevertheless, they conclude that the IT have shown a strong upward trend in France, albeit to a lesser extent than in the United States.
In the second part of the article, the authors investigate the contribution of the IT (roughly defined as computer and telecommunications hardware and software) to growth. Here, too, they emphasize the problems of making an evaluation, but conclude that the contribution to the growth of GDP in France of all the IT taken together was probably on average around 0.3% per annum between 1967 and 1999. They note that this contribution, though far from negligible, was well below the comparable figure for the United States.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Institutions

La transition indienne

Jean-Luc Racine sets out here a masterly account of the current transition in India, a transition that he argues will allow this enormous country, with over a billion inhabitants, to overcome its internal contradictions and become a major player in tomorrow's world.
This important transition is taking place first of all at the domestic, political level through the decline of the Congress Party and the rise of the Bharat People's Party (BJP) which champions the Hindu nationalism in spite of the increase in the number of regionalist parties.
The economic element of the transition has taken the form of a two-stage programme of limited but continuous moves towards liberalisation. This policy has required major structural reforms, but these have been carried out cautiously, with a view to re-establishing the main equilibria, and ensuring high levels of economic growth, which will be judged in the end by its capacity to promote more equitable human development.
In the second half of the article, devoted to India's foreign policy, Jean-Luc Racine first describes the policy adopted to make the country a nuclear power, and then shows how this affects India's handling of its geopolitical relations with its neighbours, especially its tense and ambiguous interactions with Pakistan and China. Lastly, he examines how New Delhi is trying to establish itself as one of the main players on the world scene while at the same time maintaining a completely new style of dialogue with Washington.
The portrait of India sketched by Jean-Luc Racine is of a giant who is gradually waking up, of a country that, stifling its internal tensions and inequalities, is at the stage of rapid take-off and is preparing to play a major role in the world of the future.

Revue

Économie, emploi

Reconstruire l’économie. À propos de l’ouvrage de Pierre Bourdieu, Les structures sociales de l’économie

In his latest book, Les Structures sociales de l'économie [The Social Structures of Economy], Pierre Bourdieu observes that economists' models do not accurately reflect reality. He therefore argues that the discipline should be restructured, taking as the starting point a consideration of the economic actors and the areas that they act upon.
Gérard Dréan accepts this view, but stresses that -although Bourdieu would probably deny it- the proposed approach is closely related to the methodological individualism that lies at the heart of the Austrian School, too frequently forgotten because of its free-market stance...

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Liberté et développement. À propos du livre d’Amartya Sen, Un nouveau modèle économique. Développement, justice, liberté

André-Yves Portnoff has just read (in the Italian version) Amartya Sen's most recent book, originally published in the United States under the title Development as Freedom. Here he discusses its main ideas, in particular:
- freedom is a universal value, not the exclusive right of Westerners; it is a factor in development and not an incidental by-product of it -and a factor that is all the more decisive, now that the economy is increasingly concerned with "intangibles", and human beings are more than ever "the only form of wealth";
- democracy and human rights go hand-in-hand with development; they can follow on afterwards but, more certainly, they are an essential prerequisite for it, e.g. the right to health, education, information, communication, etc.;
- the economic indicators are devised so that they attribute value only to those things that are dear in monetary terms and not that are dear to us (to quote Denis de Rougemont), consequently they cannot on their own take full account of the human capital which is the crucial factor in the process of development...
However, Amartya Sen's book goes much further than these general findings. As readers will see from the extracts and examples chosen by André-Yves Portnoff, Sen enunciates a real philosophy of development at the same time as he explores practical strategies.

Forum

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Nouvelle croissance ou vieilles lunes ?

This is a time of "new growth", thanks to the IT (information technology) and the widespread confidence, indeed conviction, that we are at the beginning of a new Kondratiev upturn, launched into a new era of stable prosperity.
Michel Godet, sceptical as always of generally accepted ideas, warns us to be cautious. True, Europe is currently enjoying a new growth spurt, which furthermore has created new jobs. But this phenomenon, here in Europe as in the United States, has little to do with the IT.
The impact of the IT obviously should not be overlooked, since they have undoubtedly helped in the development of a new economy, in particular by stimulating competition and therefore lower prices. Yet the new growth should not be overestimated on the basis of the Nasdac and the stock market bubble which will ultimately burst.
In any case, Godet argues, convinced that human beings are the only real source of wealth and that the future depends on what they want, the growth cycle theories (especially that of Kondratiev) are illusory. The new growth cannot continue without generating adverse side-effects and consequently in Europe, with its ageing population, weak and fluctuating demand.

Revue

Économie, emploi

États-Unis : l’emploi à l’horizon 2008

At the end of 1999 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS, responsible for US employment statistics) published a series of projections for employment in the United States between now and 2008. Charles du Granrut presents some of the main findings here, showing that, even if the rate of growth slows down, the present situation of virtually full employment is likely to continue.
According to the BLS, the American economy has been "tertiarized" and the trends noted since 1976 will probably be maintained in the coming decade. However, as Charles du Granrut stresses, "the image of an American economy based largely on services is too simplistic": for one thing, the growth of many services is closely linked to manufacturing; for another, the growth of services is strongly tied to demand and the arrangements made to satisfy that demand.
Lastly, the nature of employment in the United States is also changing: the level of skills and qualifications required are in general rising, which does nothing to reduce inequalities (according to the BLS, the highest rates of growth are in the best-paid but also in the less well-paid jobs).

Revue

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail

Les districts italiens. Un modèle de développement local exemplaire

The Italian industrial areas (districts with small and medium-sized firms, linked by local networks) are an excellent model. Their micro-enterprises, well known for their competitiveness, their entrepreneurial spirit, their capacity to innovate and skill in adapting to the market, are generally the heirs of the long Italian tradition of craftsmanship; they have now organized themselves into networks that make them extremely efficient.
As Florence Vidal clearly demonstrates, these Italian industrial areas are flourishing and make a major contribution to the good reputation of Italian goods. Their very good results (200 industrial areas in 1998, with 2 200 000 employees and 42.5 % of manufacturing jobs) make them key elements in the Italian economy as a whole. As each one specializes in producing just one product, in a flexible system of almost total vertical integration, they benefit from considerable economies of scale, and they are renowned for their good design, creativity and efficiency.
The areas are complex systems that rely on network coordinators who look after the links with national and international markets and funding for projects. They also cooperate in consortia for specific projects, and hence benefit substantially from sharing costs, while also being supported by many local agencies that encourage their development and back their interests by fostering social cohesion, entrepreneurship, product specialization, flexible working and interactive governance.
Florence Vidal examines whether this admirable concept is transferable. The industrial areas are at present concentrated in Central and Northern Italy, but will they continue to prosper and spread to the South, and perhaps to other European countries? Efforts are being made in this direction, with varied results.
As for the future, what will happen when the links based on geographical proximity are replaced by telecommunications links? Will it be possible to reconcile globalization, competitiveness and e-commerce with locally based social and cultural groupings relying on social integration? Will the industrial areas be able to cope with moving into the virtual world and become crucial links in worldwide networks? The author concludes with several scenarios.

Chapitre Economie, emploi

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.