Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
« État moderne, État modeste » avait écrit Michel Crozier. « État imposant, État impuissant » répond en écho Alexandre Siné. On savait l’État imposant par ses dépenses, ses effectifs ; d’autres comme Daniel Bell le qualifiaient d’impuissant, « trop petit pour les grands problèmes et trop grand pour les petits problèmes ». Alexandre Siné ose le lien entre finances publiques et démocratie : un déficit permanent depuis plus de trente ans avec un service de la dette qui a plus que triplé et des ...
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Selon une étude récente du cabinet de conseil en stratégie Mercer Management Consulting, le marché des services aux personnes, qui pèserait aujourd'hui 8,2 milliards d'euros, devrait progresser, dans les cinq ans qui viennent, de 10 % par an et donc atteindre 13,2 milliards d'euros en 2010. L'idée que les services aux personnes recèleraient de véritables gisements d'emplois et pourraient, par conséquent, résoudre (du moins en partie) le problème du chômage de masse que connaît ...
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With the parliamentary debate on the French budget for 2006 in full swing, Alexandre Siné sets out the prerequisites for a proper understanding of the issues surrounding public expenditure. The topic is of course frequently aired in the media. But the questions of public finance are generally treated either by focusing on "totem" figures whose size is beyond the instinctive grasp of the normal person (a deficit of 46.8 billion euros - why not 60?) or by highly technical discussions (annexes to the main budget, Title III, etc.) that are meaningless to the man or woman in the street.
So we are very grateful to Alexandre Siné for giving us here an expert's analysis, focusing on a few crucial topics, that is easy to understand and essential for a genuine reflection about how much flexibility the French authorities will have in the future. Indeed, this article shows to what extent the national budget is shaped - aside from all the attempts to optimise it generated every year by the fertile imagination of the services of the finance ministry - by expenditures that "increase slowly but surely". This is fairly clear from the parliamentary voting mechanism that operated under rules set in 1959 whereby the "services votés" - i.e. the minimum amount that the government considers to be indispensable in order to maintain public services at the level of the previous year - were voted on as a whole, although they account for more than 90% of public expenditure.
Today, the 2001 "organic law" which applies to financial legislation (called LOLF) has altered this procedure. But simply applying this law will not do anything to change the salient fact affirmed by Alexandre Siné: that this structural rigidity in the national budget constitutes an abdication of political control, as every year parliament has less and less say in the financing of the central government, except to continue to sell off the state's assets as long as there are any to sell.
Avertissement Dans une précédente livraison (TRP n°20. mars 2004), François Plassard avait montré combien les exercices de prospective sont souvent soumis aux préjugés de l'époque à laquelle ils sont menés. Fort d'une longue expérience acquise au Commissariat généraldu Plan ainsi qu'au Centre d'Etudes des Revenus et des Coûts (CERC), Philippe Madinier contribue à son tour à cette analyse critique des travaux d'anticipation en s'attaquant aux prévisions économiques publiques, et plus particulièrement à celles ...
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Winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1998, Amartya Sen is known above all for his work on indicators of poverty and development which now form the basis of the international comparisons produced every year by the UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) in its Human Development Report. One of his other main concerns is cultural freedom and the promotion of democracy - a universal value that he feels is too often monopolized by the West. André-Yves Portnoff knows Sen's work well and stresses here the contribution of his thinking in these two fields; he is delighted by the ethical rigour that the Indian scholar brings to his work.
The impressive economic growth of China and its increasingly important place in international trade are much discussed in the media, business circles and even by Western governments. How can a country governed by an authoritarian communist regime become part of the market economy without major problems and flourish in it? This question applies to China, the most striking example, but also to Vietnam, its Asian alter ego.
Philippe Delalande analyses here how the Chinese and Vietnamese economies are adapting to the market. In particular, he shows how the Communist Party in both countries is trying to renew its legitimacy with the public in order to be able to continue to foster economic growth, and how it is opening itself up to national economic pressures so as to incorporate them in policy decisions and ultimately to control them better. Furthermore, he stresses the way in which both countries "make use of free market globalisation without submitting to it" (and angering their trading partners). Finally, he highlights the essential positive feature of both authoritarian regimes: the long-term confidence that allows them to embark on ten-year development strategies for tackling major issues such as energy, infrastructures and education...
Although this alliance between communism and the market economy is acrobatic as well as disturbing for Western commentators, it appears to work, says Philippe Delalande, and could indeed last longer than some people expect.
India is, along with Brazil, Russia and China, one of the so-called emerging countries likely to play a crucial role in the international economy in the future. Quite apart from its geographical size (a subcontinent) and its huge population (more than a billion inhabitants in 2004), India's rapid growth comes from the opening up of the economy and its strength in the key sector of information technologies.
However, as Joël Ruet shows in this article, India remains a two-tier economy, with a (tiny) minority benefiting from development while the vast majority - rural and poor - is still largely left behind. The much-hoped for middle class, which would be the key to moving to a higher level of development, is slow in emerging, mainly because of problems with the central government system, which is struggling to modernize the infrastructures required and to make allowance for the country's enormous diversity.
After a brief sketch of this vast country, Joël Ruet points out what the current structural constraints are and shows how the private sector (whose features he describes in some detail) could intervene - not to supplant but to complement the public sector. He argues that such a public-private partnership would make a crucial contribution to promoting economic development in India.
"The Arab World finds itself at a historical crossroads. Caught between oppression at home and violation from abroad, Arabs are increasingly excluded from determining their own future." So begins the cover blurb for UNDP's recent Arab Human Development Report 2004. Towards Freedom in the Arab World (New York: United Nations, 2005, 248 pp.).
Contrary to what some commentators might think, in particular given recent events in Lebanon, the Arab world is still far from embracing democratic principles as many wish that it would. For the moment, as Jean-Jacques Salomon argues in discussing the UNDP report, respect for basic freedoms is compromised in many Arab countries by dictatorship, authoritarian rule and their cultural heritage. Many lag behind in their respect for freedoms of various kinds and for human rights, but also with regard to female emancipation and improvements in education. Yet unless the Arab countries deal with these problems and institute "indigenous" democratic reforms, it is unlikely that a "renaissance of the Arab world" will ensue.
Le présent rapport du groupe Delos, du Commissariat général du Plan, dirigé par Guilhem Bentoglio, étudie quels seront les opérateurs de demain dans le secteur des services à la personne et comment leur mode d’organisation pourra permettre de développer des emplois de qualité. La demande dans les services à la personne est potentiellement très élevée en France, compte tenu du vieillissement de la population, de la mutation des structures familiales et des changements dans la gestion des temps. Pour ...
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Qu’est devenu le Japon qui, après les années 1980 où il fut érigé en modèle, a sombré depuis 15 ans dans une crise financière, économique, politique, culturelle dont nul, jusqu’à présent, n’avait dressé un bilan vraiment exhaustif ? Sans renier son modèle particulier de développement, le Japon a accompli une véritable mutation aux plans industriel et économique, social et culturel, telle que, ayant surmonté les chocs pétroliers, remédié aux errements de son administration publique, procédé à un véritable ...
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As the unemployment rate in France rose once again above the symbolic level of 10% of the economically active population at the end of February 2005, and the rising cost of housing tends to reinforce the social and geographical segregation of the country, people are becoming worried. But how bad, in fact, is the gap between rich and poor? Is inequality becoming worse and, if so, how much worse?
As Louis Maurin, Director of the Observatoire des inégalités, argues here, it is still very hard to answer these questions. Because of the lack of indicators that are sufficiently relevant and comprehensive, the measurements of changes in income are only partial - in particular, a large part of inherited wealth is not covered - and furthermore involve serious lags: some of the figures available in 2005 date back to 1996! Despite these problems, when the available data are examined, it appears that - optical illusions aside - the poverty gap in terms of income is tending to become wider in France, and educational inequalities are also increasing, which will obviously make matters even worse in future.
Once again, France lacks satisfactory monitoring tools, a criticism often voiced in these pages. As a result, warning bells are not rung when they need to be and the authorities then do not take the steps that should be taken to deal with the country's problems. If inequalities are indeed increasing, we should not be surprised, says Louis Maurin, if this has an impact on social relations and even, in the longer term, on French democracy.
A specialist in land-use planning, Jean-Paul Lacaze examines the figures from the 2004 French population census - carried out in a new way - which were published at the beginning of 2005. He recalls Alfred Sauvy's warnings about the optical illusions that can arise from looking at annual variations rather than absolute numbers, and points out that the regions which are classed as the most attractive in population terms differ depending on the method used to rank them.
When the absolute numbers are considered, the area of France that attracts the largest inflow of population is the Île-de-France (the Paris region), closely followed by Rhône-Alpes, and then much further behind are Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur and Languedoc-Roussillon. But if the ranking is based on the annual rate of change between 1999 and 2003, the order is Languedoc-Roussillon followed by Midi-Pyrénées, Aquitaine and Rhône-Alpes.
As always, how you interpret statistics, when they are available, depends on the spectacles you wear when you look at them.
En guise d’introduction, Jean-Marie Chevalier a rappelé que les États-Unis sont souvent présentés comme voulant imposer au monde entier leur vision libérale fondée sur le primat absolu de la propriété privée, la liberté d’entreprendre au service d’un enrichissement sans bornes et le fonctionnement démocratique des institutions, où, à tous les niveaux, s’opposent pouvoirs et contrepouvoirs. Une vision qui fascine et qui agace. Elle nous fascine parce que l’Amérique incarne toujours l’idéal démocratique, l’espoir ...
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"Coup de gueule en urgence. Alerte sur notre contrat social" est destiné à réveiller les Français. Hervé Sérieyx pense qu’il est encore temps de faire bouger les choses dans la société, tout du moins si l’on veut conserver notre contrat social (qui repose essentiellement sur la solidarité entre les individus). Au cours de sa carrière, il a régulièrement constaté ce qu’il appelle le « catastrophisme du bousier », ou la capacité qu’ont les individus à voir tout en ...
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André-Yves Portnoff argues here that how far societies evolve depends closely on the values they hold and their ability to change. He takes as his starting point the example of the current Italian reluctance to adopt modern medical techniques such as the use of peridurals in childbirth, and recalls that the Roman Empire declined because of a "cultural and mental block". Drawing on various scientific and historical studies, he shows how the Empire "condemned itself" by clinging to "regressive" values, especially the preference for relying on a cheap and abundant labour force (slavery), rather than on innovation and investments in intangible resources as a basis for technical progress that might have allowed the Romans to start an industrial revolution well ahead of time.
By above all holding onto the status quo (preserving their leading position which they thought was at its height), the Romans forgot an important principle: it is impossible to make progress or to survive for long if one cannot imagine a better future. This is even more true if one does not mobilize the intelligence of everyone to do so...
At the end of November 2004 a report was published in France, produced by Claude Bébéar at the request of the prime minister, on discrimination by firms. In particular, the report showed evidence of undoubted discrimination against foreigners or people of foreign descent with regard to hiring, and it called for a radical change in attitudes.
Michèle Tribalat is a researcher at INED ("Institut national d'études démographiques") and the author of one of the most recent studies to investigate ethnic criteria that provides statistical evidence on the true extent of discrimination in France (1992). She discusses the present position with regard to combating discrimination in this country (against minorities, women, the handicapped, etc.), and shows in particular how much France relies heavily on a "hyperjuridical" and global approach to the problem, being generally content to pass legislation and apply (without great zeal) EU directives. She stresses the lack of any real political will to measure how much discrimination there is: no satisfactory statistical tools exist, not even in employment, which is an area where using existing surveys would, without involving major difficulties, yield studies based on actual figures.
By contrast, the United States - which has been very active in combating discrimination since the 1960s - has been highly pragmatic and this has allowed the Americans to measure what has in fact been happening. Michèle Tribalat presents here, as an example, the way they gather data relating to the employment of women and minorities in American firms, and shows how this could be transposed to France. However, apart from the periodic bursts of interest in this issue, do the French really want to have such statistical information? Are we ready to abandon the current global approach and tackle the problem at a more refined level (employment, housing, etc.)?
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.
- Quelles trajectoires géoéconomiques et géopolitiques à l’horizon 2025 ?
- Tempête solaire : un risque avéré, avec quelles conséquences ?