Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Le secteur des carrières et matériaux de la construction qui compte, au total, 70 000 salariés, est particulièrement confronté à un vieillissement de ses effectifs et à des difficultés de recrutement. Il s'interroge actuellement sur la façon de faire face à ses besoins en renouvellement de main-d'oeuvre. Pour répondre à cette interrogation, le CEREQ (Centre d'études et de recherches sur les qualifications) a mis en oeuvre une approche prospective en trois étapes dans ce secteur. Elle consiste ...
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According to Michel Godet, the French are wrongly obsessed with the relocation of manufacturing activities to other countries. He argues instead that it is "less a case of de-industrializing than of shifts in manufacturing practices and the internationalization of industrial activities", and indeed these changes have a beneficial impact on employment.
That manufacturing productivity should rise is a good thing as long as there is service sector growth, including in services for firms that will contribute to the needed expansion of the tertiary sector of the French economy.
The real problem of the French economy and society lies not in globalization or in de-industrialization. Rather, it arises from the fact that, rather than encouraging initiative, every effort is made to keep uncompetitive firms in business artificially.
What we should do, says Michel Godet, is first of all help successful firms to expand and to activate dormant projects. We should abandon the myth of large-scale plans and instead stimulate the creation of activities which would, in turn, create jobs. We should stop dreaming of a knowledge economy fuelled by major programmes for research and development, and create a new collective pattern of growth based on a network of skills, individuals and organizations. They should stop attacking each other and work together to create a new collective dynamism.
In short, Godet concludes, we should stop looking for a foreign scapegoat for France's problems and also stop hoping for salvation from abroad. The solutions lie above all in mobilizing people and therefore in better management - this alone could lift the country out of its threatened stagnation.
André-Yves Portnoff argues here that how far societies evolve depends closely on the values they hold and their ability to change. He takes as his starting point the example of the current Italian reluctance to adopt modern medical techniques such as the use of peridurals in childbirth, and recalls that the Roman Empire declined because of a "cultural and mental block". Drawing on various scientific and historical studies, he shows how the Empire "condemned itself" by clinging to "regressive" values, especially the preference for relying on a cheap and abundant labour force (slavery), rather than on innovation and investments in intangible resources as a basis for technical progress that might have allowed the Romans to start an industrial revolution well ahead of time.
By above all holding onto the status quo (preserving their leading position which they thought was at its height), the Romans forgot an important principle: it is impossible to make progress or to survive for long if one cannot imagine a better future. This is even more true if one does not mobilize the intelligence of everyone to do so...
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.
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