Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Pour Anne-Marie Guillemard, qui vient de sortir son livre L’Âge de l’emploi. Les sociétés à l’épreuve du vieillissement, la faiblesse du taux d’emploi (proportion d’actifs au travail) des personnes de plus de 45 ans n’est pas une fatalité. Dans le contexte de la réforme des retraites, Anne-Marie Guillemard souligne qu’on ne peut repenser la retraite sans questionner les mutations du travail et la réorganisation des temps sociaux, c’est-à-dire la distribution des temps ...
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Every year since 1987, a World Day Against Poverty is held on October 17. But it is important that the collective reaction against poverty should not be limited to this occasion alone. For one thing, fighting poverty means having the wherewithal to do so. But how? And what are the prerequisites?
The future studies approach may have a useful contribution to make in this regard. This would help to prevent the goals set by the European Council in 2000 -to eliminate poverty by 2010- from being mere pious hopes.
Identifying the likely trends in extreme poverty in Europe may indeed help us to perceive how much room there is for manoeuvre and the means of altering those trends. Even more, to quote Jean-Pïerre Dupuy, this approach may well enable us to see the worst situations as well as revealing "what is of enormous value".
In this article, Saphia Richou and Xavier Godinot discuss a joint initiative of ATD Quart Monde and Futuribles to examine the prospects for extreme poverty in Europe between now and 2015. The authors describe the methods used and the scenarios which were developed. Clearly this exploratory approach cannot avoid a discussion of what would be desirable, since that was what motivated the exercise in the first place. The article therefore examines the means and the conditions needed to achieve a scenario with the evocative title: "poverty made illegal".
Véronique Lamblin examines here how the World Bank arrives at its long-term forecasts. She first describes the variables selected (working population, rates of savings and investment, productivity), then outlines the Bank's economic outlooks for each major region of the world from now until 2015, although she stresses that these involve a high level of uncertainty.
Voici une compilation très complète d'articles traitant de la Russie sous ses angles historique, démographique, politique, social et économique. Les difficultés sont nombreuses auxquelles doit faire face le plus grand pays du monde (17 millions de km2) : pauvreté (le produit national brut par habitant y est 10 fois plus faible qu'en Europe occidentale), importance du secteur informel, insécurité, crise identitaire suite à la libéralisation de l'économie et des mœurs, nostalgie et fatalisme ambiants, alcoolisme endémique, ravages écologiques ...
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It has to be acknowledged that the many plans intended to rescue Africa from underdevelopment, often surrounded by controversies, have so far met with failure. NEPAD (New Partnership for African Development), drawn up on the basis of proposals made by African leaders and adopted by the new "African union" in Durban in July 2002, hopes to be the means henceforth of reversing the trend and bringing about growth for the African continent.
Christel Alvergne and Daniel Latouche present here the content of this plan, which aims basically to stimulate a new impetus of development by relying on substantial investments in infrastructure (transport, energy, clean water supply, drainage, telecommunications) in the hope that these will also have a strong multiplier effect.
The authors describe the projects planned under NEPAD and set out the benefits which these may generate for the whole of Africa. But they also stress that the infrastructure programmes must be conducted within the framework of a general land-use planning policy, which for the moment does not exist. According to the authors, NEPAD has allowed Africa to rediscover its land. But the continent still lacks a project to make the most of this resource, in particular one based on genuine territorial dynamics.
Although she is cautious about the viability of using changes in gross domestic product as an indicator, Céline Laisney presents an overview of both past and future changes in GDP in the main regions of the world. Drawing on the work of specialist agencies such as OECD and the World Bank, she shows that the period of rapid economic growth from the 1950s to the 1970s was more the exception than the rule. In future we must therefore expect slower rates of growth, more like those of the 1950s, especially in France and in Europe generally.
In an analysis of the reasons for the low rate of economic growth in France, Jacques Bely emphasizes here how unhelpful it is to look for answers in contrasting the public and private sectors. In his view, an increase in the rate of economic growth will be achieved not by privatising certain public services but by improving their efficiency. Bely argues that the failure of public services to take account of this "efficiency factor" leads to a need for even greater productivity on the part of the market and competitive sector, thereby impairing the contribution of the latter to fostering growth. It is therefore essential for the French public services to acknowledge this efficiency dimension and take their inspiration from businesses in making organizational changes that will provide greater customer satisfaction at lower costs. This is one of the keys to reviving French economic growth, says Bely, and he offers some concrete proposals at the end of the article.
In the midst of the "war against terrorism" launched by the US government, the editor of Foreign Policy rightly reminds us that there are other "wars", not waged by one state against another; these are sometimes even more destructive and governments have great difficulty in gaining the upper hand. These wars are made much worse by certain new features of globalisation and, according to Moisés Naím, they are likely to be long-lasting and to become even more serious if governments do not realize that these problems call for major strategic reforms.
The wars in question are against drug-trafficking, the illegal arms trade, breaches of intellectual property, trafficking of human beings and money-laundering.
These problems have no regard for geography or sovereignty, and they bring governments into conflict with networks based solely on market forces. In many ways, Naím argues, these struggles are structuring the world as much as the tensions between nation-states did in the past. In addition, they raise questions about the dominant ideas and institutions of nation-states and they highlight the damaging side-effects of untrammelled market forces.
In 1993, in a report to the French Senate on the economic and fiscal implications of the relocation abroad of manufacturing and services (L'Incidence économique et fiscale des délocalisations hors du territoire national des activités industrielles et de service. Paris: Senate, June 1993), Jean Arthuis expressed his concern about the impact of relocations on employment. His assessment then was deeply worrying: in 15 years, the domestic workforce in the sectors most affected by this trend (electronics, clothing and textiles, shoes) had been more than halved.
At the time, the report was presented by Arthuis in this journal ("Les délocalisations contre l'emploi. La sombre analyse du rapport Arthuis", Futuribles, n°181, November 1993) and he intended to shock ("the house is on fire", he wrote then). It proved to be prophetic in that he predicted the coming of the "second generation" of relocations that would affect services and intangibles.
Now indeed, 10 years later, the headlines of the European press continue to be full of news of closures of industrial plants while more and more foreign businesses are established in China, India or Eastern Europe, in high value-added sectors and research as well as basic manufacturing.
In this article, Jean Arthuis makes a gloomy assessment of the last 10 years: "the numbers of relocations have not stopped growing... Worse still, they have increased." He adds, "all sectors of the economy are now affected". Unlike those who like to think that this phenomenon is simply marginal, he argues that it is indeed a major trend but that something can be done to offset it. In his view, the solutions lie in reducing social security contributions and tax rates, in better economic coordination at European level, or in reforms of governance. In addition, he makes proposals for practical measures such as the creation of a "social" value-added tax and ecological taxation.
In the June 2003 issue of Futuribles we published an article by Michel Albert arguing that business could have a key role in promoting sustainable development. Nicole Notat has a similar viewpoint here, showing how the idea of the social responsibility of firms (SRF) has developed, driven by the growing awareness of the social and environmental risks associated with their activities and by a groundswell of opinion among both intergovernmental organizations and civil society.
Mme Notat describes the forms that reactions to these new demands can take, including ethical financing and socially responsible investments, or where necessary outright philanthropic actions. Better still, she stresses that firms can make a real contribution through preventive or proactive strategies that integrate social and environmental concerns in their management.
At the same time, Nicole Notat argues that, because there is no normative statement of what the SRF involves, it is essential to ensure that efforts conducted under this label are in fact genuine. Hence the creation of agencies like the one she heads, Vigeo, which tries to ensure the good faith and good practice on the part of firms.
For her, in any case, the issue is extremely important and the investment in it will be rewarded. A firm that os truly socially responsible has every likelihood of also being more competitive in the short term and, a fortiori, in the long term too.
The French government's plan to reform pensions - although useful - is based ultimately on the assumption that the country will return rapidly (by 2010 or 2020) to full employment, if not of general labour shortage. The reform therefore relies partly on making people work longer (and therefore pay more contributions) in order to qualify for a full pension, and partly on a sharp fall in the costs arising from unemployment, so that the money thereby released could be used to finance pensions.
All of this is based on a highly interventionist scenario developed by a special advisory council on pensions which reported in December 2001 at the end of three years of exceptional economic growth and job creation.
Unfortunately, as we foresaw at Futuribles, the economic growth fizzled out, unemployment rose again and underemployment became widespread (though not unavoidable), which seriously compromises a reform plan that threatens simply to reduce the standard of living of pensioners and widen the gap between rich and poor.
Les auteurs estiment qu'à cotisations inchangées, le vieillissement est un facteur de développement : l'allongement de la durée d'inactivité incitant à une épargne plus abondante, il en résulte que le vieillissement des générations actuelles est aussi favorable aux générations futures.
L'économie chinoise, tant en raison de ses ressources, de la taille de son marché que de ses importants taux de croissance (8 % pour l'année 2002 malgré le SRAS, Syndrôme Respiratoire Aigu Sévère), semble appelée à devenir prochainement un centre économique majeur de la planète. Au vu des importantes réformes déjà entreprises par les autorités pour se conformer aux réglementations de l'OMC (organisation mondiale du commerce) et de sa stabilisation politique, la Chine offre des conditions d'échange ...
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De nombreuses entreprises ont été amenées à modifier leur organisation à l'occasion de la réduction du temps de travail. « Toutes choses égales d'ailleurs », les salariés ont diversement vécu ces changements. Leur appréciation est plutôt positive quand il s'agit d'utiliser davantage les technologies de l'information ou de développer le travail en groupe, ou encore quand cela permet de disposer de plus de temps pour s'occuper de sa famille, spécialement pour les hommes. À l'inverse ...
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Le système financier international connaît actuellement d'importants bouleversements dus à des causes tant technologiques qu'institutionnelles ou politiques. Face aux désordres monétaires actuels, cinq économistes s'interrogent sur l'évolution des stratégies étatiques et évaluent les éventualités qu'a la zone euro d'être prise comme exemple et adaptée en autant de zones monétaires régionales. Si les crises financières systémiques incitent les États à mettre en place un pôle de régulation, l'organiser à un niveau planétaire semble pour ...
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In 2002 East Asia has again achieved a high rate of growth. Philippe Delalande asks whether it can last, noting that the Asian development model -originally based on exports-is beginning to change.
In examining which are the most successful economies, the author argues that although at the outset Japan acted as the driving force in the region, its leading position is now being challenged by the growth of China.
Finally, Philippe Delalande wonders about the emergence of an economic organization in East Asia and concludes, in essence, that just such a regional organization is developing and in the long term is likely to be in competition with the countries of the European Union.
Geneviève Schméder, on the basis of several studies carried out in the United States, examines the potential costs and benefits of the war in Iraq for the American economy.
The estimates of the costs naturally vary depending on the length and difficulty of the war, its immediate aftermath, and what happens to oil prices...
The author stresses that military victory is much less important than the restoration of peace, and ponders the post-war phase, humanitarian aid and the reconstruction of Iraq. It is clear that, unlike the period of the Marshall Plan, the United States is no longer in a position to help the region as it might have in other times.
Lastly, Geneviève Schméder argues that the American economy, far from gaining from the conflict, could suffer badly as a result of it.
Les auteurs rendent comptent dans cet article des conclusions d'un programme de recherche financé par plusieurs grandes compagnies américaines. Selon eux, la plupart des entreprises ne savent pas manager les knowledge workers de manière efficace. Elles pourraient améliorer leur productivité et leur flexibilité en réduisant dans le même temps leurs coûts fixes de 30 % Le changement de nature du travail (de plus en plus intellectuel), la diversité croissante de la population active (plus féminine, plus âgée), les attentes de ...
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Basing his discussion on the national surveys of time-use in a dozen countries, Jonathan Gershuny argues that the changes in how time is spent every day reveal a general similarity among countries and between the sexes, although women still do more housework than men. He also shows that there has been a slight increase in the amount of time spent on paid work (and rising with level of education) and a slight fall in time spent on domestic chores.
Despite these trends, Gershuny stresses that there are potentially substantial differences from country to country, especially between those with long working hours, poor public services and where therefore there are big gender differences, and those with shorter working hours, better public services and where therefore gender differences are smaller.
From this he outlines a political economy of time, and argues that the time spent on paid work has an impact on how and which services are used. He ends by showing that "social democratic states tend towards high-value leisure service consumption, whereas liberal market states tend towards the low value pattern".
Gilbert Cette and Pavel Diev offer here a short survey of the various studies devoted to the impact of the reduction in working hours (RWH) on the way the French spend their time, as well as the main conclusions.
Overall, these studies show that the time released by the RWH is shared among the activities people usually engage in outside working hours, depending on characteristics such as gender, income, whether or not they have children... Women, for example, mostly spend this extra time on household tasks and personal care, whereas men tend to spend it on gardening and DIY. If they have children, those in paid employment spend more time on domestic tasks and/or leisure activities. The level of education appears to determine whether this extra time is spent on domestic chores rather than leisure or social activities.
Finally, the authors provide some interesting insights into the variables most likely to influence how this extra free time is spent by those who have gained it (by age, family situation, income, length of service in the firm, travel-to-work time, the manner of RWH, etc.).
For a very long time, and above all as a result of industrialization, social life was organized around working hours, which in turn tended to conform to a single pattern, with everyone working at the same times and in the same place.
Several new trends are now appearing: the number of hours worked is becoming more varied, as are work schedules; distinctions in times and places of work/non-work are increasingly blurred, especially as a result of new forms of organization and employment and also of a rise in female activity rates (since lack of change in the division of labour means that women have to juggle several kinds of time constraint).
Consequently we are moving towards a society in which the boundaries between work and leisure are becoming increasingly fluid, and social schedules less and less synchronized, leading to debates about such matters as access to services and therefore the opening hours of public services, shops, etc.
In order to accommodate "atypical", "unsocial" working hours and to harmonise at least some of these different patterns of work and leisure, interesting local initiatives have been launched in Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and France. They aim to bring together the various protagonists in social life in "offices of time" with a view to reaching agreement on establishing core hours for communal activities in spite of these increasingly heterogeneous schedules and everybody's desire to organize their own time.
The process described by Jean-Yves Boulin is only just starting. No one can doubt, however, that the trend is likely to continue and we shall gradually develop a very different relationship with both time and space from the pattern prevailing when everyone worked the same hours in the same place.
Le rapport du groupe "Prospective des métiers et qualifications" du Commissariat au plan a été remis au Premier Ministre en novembre dernier. Ce groupe, créé en 1997, avait pour mission d'éclairer le champ des possibles en matière d'évolution des ressources en main d'oeuvre en France, tant sur le plan quantitatif que qualitatif.
Confrontés au vieillissement démographique et, parfois, aux pénuries de main-d’œuvre, de plusieurs pays européens ont engagé, au cours des années 1990, d'importantes réformes de leur régime de retraites mais aussi des conditions de travail et d'emploi des travailleurs de plus de cinquante ans. Les pays du Nord de l'Europe et le Royaume-Uni ont ainsi mis en œuvre des réformes diversifiées, mêlant mesures ciblées et approche globale, actions sur l'âge de la retraite et prise en ...
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Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.