Économie, emploi

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

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Économie, emploi - Population - Société, modes de vie

Les métamorphoses de la société et de l’économie japonaise

Qu’est devenu le Japon qui, après les années 1980 où il fut érigé en modèle, a sombré depuis 15 ans dans une crise financière, économique, politique, culturelle dont nul, jusqu’à présent, n’avait dressé un bilan vraiment exhaustif ? Sans renier son modèle particulier de développement, le Japon a accompli une véritable mutation aux plans industriel et économique, social et culturel, telle que, ayant surmonté les chocs pétroliers, remédié aux errements de son administration publique, procédé à un véritable ...

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Forum

Économie, emploi - Population

The French Population in 2004. Beware of Optical Illusions!

A specialist in land-use planning, Jean-Paul Lacaze examines the figures from the 2004 French population census - carried out in a new way - which were published at the beginning of 2005. He recalls Alfred Sauvy's warnings about the optical illusions that can arise from looking at annual variations rather than absolute numbers, and points out that the regions which are classed as the most attractive in population terms differ depending on the method used to rank them.
When the absolute numbers are considered, the area of France that attracts the largest inflow of population is the Île-de-France (the Paris region), closely followed by Rhône-Alpes, and then much further behind are Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur and Languedoc-Roussillon. But if the ranking is based on the annual rate of change between 1999 and 2003, the order is Languedoc-Roussillon followed by Midi-Pyrénées, Aquitaine and Rhône-Alpes.
As always, how you interpret statistics, when they are available, depends on the spectacles you wear when you look at them.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Société, modes de vie

How much Is Known about Inequality in France?

As the unemployment rate in France rose once again above the symbolic level of 10% of the economically active population at the end of February 2005, and the rising cost of housing tends to reinforce the social and geographical segregation of the country, people are becoming worried. But how bad, in fact, is the gap between rich and poor? Is inequality becoming worse and, if so, how much worse?
As Louis Maurin, Director of the Observatoire des inégalités, argues here, it is still very hard to answer these questions. Because of the lack of indicators that are sufficiently relevant and comprehensive, the measurements of changes in income are only partial - in particular, a large part of inherited wealth is not covered - and furthermore involve serious lags: some of the figures available in 2005 date back to 1996! Despite these problems, when the available data are examined, it appears that - optical illusions aside - the poverty gap in terms of income is tending to become wider in France, and educational inequalities are also increasing, which will obviously make matters even worse in future.
Once again, France lacks satisfactory monitoring tools, a criticism often voiced in these pages. As a result, warning bells are not rung when they need to be and the authorities then do not take the steps that should be taken to deal with the country's problems. If inequalities are indeed increasing, we should not be surprised, says Louis Maurin, if this has an impact on social relations and even, in the longer term, on French democracy.

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Économie, emploi

Les paradoxes de l’économie américaine

En guise d’introduction, Jean-Marie Chevalier a rappelé que les États-Unis sont souvent présentés comme voulant imposer au monde entier leur vision libérale fondée sur le primat absolu de la propriété privée, la liberté d’entreprendre au service d’un enrichissement sans bornes et le fonctionnement démocratique des institutions, où, à tous les niveaux, s’opposent pouvoirs et contrepouvoirs. Une vision qui fascine et qui agace. Elle nous fascine parce que l’Amérique incarne toujours l’idéal démocratique, l’espoir ...

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Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail

Alerte sur notre contrat social

"Coup de gueule en urgence. Alerte sur notre contrat social" est destiné à réveiller les Français. Hervé Sérieyx pense qu’il est encore temps de faire bouger les choses dans la société, tout du moins si l’on veut conserver notre contrat social (qui repose essentiellement sur la solidarité entre les individus). Au cours de sa carrière, il a régulièrement constaté ce qu’il appelle le « catastrophisme du bousier », ou la capacité qu’ont les individus à voir tout en ...

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Forum

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail

De-industrializing or Modernizing?

According to Michel Godet, the French are wrongly obsessed with the relocation of manufacturing activities to other countries. He argues instead that it is "less a case of de-industrializing than of shifts in manufacturing practices and the internationalization of industrial activities", and indeed these changes have a beneficial impact on employment.
That manufacturing productivity should rise is a good thing as long as there is service sector growth, including in services for firms that will contribute to the needed expansion of the tertiary sector of the French economy.
The real problem of the French economy and society lies not in globalization or in de-industrialization. Rather, it arises from the fact that, rather than encouraging initiative, every effort is made to keep uncompetitive firms in business artificially.
What we should do, says Michel Godet, is first of all help successful firms to expand and to activate dormant projects. We should abandon the myth of large-scale plans and instead stimulate the creation of activities which would, in turn, create jobs. We should stop dreaming of a knowledge economy fuelled by major programmes for research and development, and create a new collective pattern of growth based on a network of skills, individuals and organizations. They should stop attacking each other and work together to create a new collective dynamism.
In short, Godet concludes, we should stop looking for a foreign scapegoat for France's problems and also stop hoping for salvation from abroad. The solutions lie above all in mobilizing people and therefore in better management - this alone could lift the country out of its threatened stagnation.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Anticiper les besoins en renouvellement de main-d’oeuvre : une démarche prospective sectorielle

Le secteur des carrières et matériaux de la construction qui compte, au total, 70 000 salariés, est particulièrement confronté à un vieillissement de ses effectifs et à des difficultés de recrutement. Il s'interroge actuellement sur la façon de faire face à ses besoins en renouvellement de main-d'oeuvre. Pour répondre à cette interrogation, le CEREQ (Centre d'études et de recherches sur les qualifications) a mis en oeuvre une approche prospective en trois étapes dans ce secteur. Elle consiste ...

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Chapitre Economie, emploi

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.