Économie, emploi

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Économie, emploi

The Assets Held by French Households. A Key Element Requiring Interpretation

Whereas many analysts are forecasting a deterioration of the French economic situation in the short term, the assets held by French people must be taken into account if we are to have a comprehensive view of the situation. But what do we know about these assets? What are they based on and who is involved?
In this article, Charles du Granrut has studied the assets held by French households. He presents here the long-term trends in those holdings, the way they are evaluated, their main characteristics (mainly the preponderance of residential property), their distribution among the French population, the role they could play in the management of the risks with which households are likely to be confronted etc. This very detailed analysis enables us to grasp both the central place and the great complexity of asset holdings, the composition and accumulation of which remain very much linked to the psychology and life itineraries of individuals, as do the strategies for their allocation. However, if it is highly probable that they will play an increased role in intergenerational relations and in covering life risks (such as dependency), we must nevertheless keep in mind - alongside a certain ignorance on the part of individuals in respect of their asset holdings and the use they can make of them - the very great inequality of their distribution, which prevents them being used as a universal instrument in respect, for example, of social insurance needs.

Forum

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Derivatives and Other Mathematical Aberrations

Much ink is still to flow on the financial crisis of autumn 2008. It is difficult as yet to evaluate the extent of the damage and if we do venture some mid- or long-term forecasts in the pages of Futuribles, we do so only with the utmost caution. It seems, in fact, to have become virtually impossible to determine how things are going to develop in the financial sphere, since the players have lost all confidence in each other and, despite intervention on an unprecedented scale, the powers that be are finding it difficult to restore trust.
Analysts have remained cautious even on the deep causes of this crisis, given that those in the world of finance themselves still find it hard to understand how matters raced so far out of their control. Is mathematical modelling, which is a key element in the operation of global financial markets, in some way to blame for the current parlous situation, and, if so, to what extent? Pierre Papon inquires here into the significant role played by that modelling, demonstrating, in substance, that mathematical tools are undoubtedly very useful in the financial field, but that they have to be regularly submitted to both theoretical and practical testing.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

The Crisis and the Shift towards Asia: Issues for Europe

Last October Philippe Delalande enquired, in this journal, into the impact of the current Western financial crisis on the Chinese economy, indicating that that crisis might ultimately present an opportunity for China to stabilize its economic development at a "sustainable" level. This month Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière goes beyond this and offers an analysis of the mid- and long-term consequences of recent economic developments on the global equilibrium and, more particularly, on the influence of the Asian continent, and the ensuing issues for Europe.
After recalling demographic changes and prospects in Asia, he shows that the economic shift begun in the 1970s with the rise of Japan and confirmed in the 1990s by the "miracle" of the new industrialized countries, is currently being reaffirmed, despite the sideshow of the 1997 crisis. Hence, unless a scenario emerges in which "globalization grinds to a halt," the heart of the global economy could well come to reside lastingly in Asia, with internal (national or regional) demand as its main engine. Drawing on the relevant statistical evidence, Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière illustrates his argument by examining recent developments in, and the future prospects of, the main countries of Asia (China, India, South Korea, Taiwan etc.). Lastly, he outlines the consequences of this economic shift: competition over costs and quality of labour, an explosion in the number of consumers (the middle classes), an aggravation of the environmental situation (two elements Europe could draw on to reposition itself), geopolitical changes (the growing influence of China and India in Africa) etc.

Forum

Économie, emploi

Can the French Economy be Reformed?

Echoing an article by Charles du Granrut, "Growth by Decree?", published in these pages in May, Émile Quinet returns to the question of the reform of the French economy. As he reminds us, everyone - or almost everyone - today agrees on the diagnosis: France is in trouble and major reforms are urgently needed, particularly in the economic field. Most of the (generally very competent) experts who have examined this question also take a similar view on the prescription for the French economy: a more flexible labour market, lower government deficits, more efficient systems of education and research etc.
On the other hand, it is when it comes to administering the treatment - and hence to implementing reforms - that things get sticky: either no real solutions are offered, the recommendations that are made lack finesse or the measures get nowhere on account of the various deadlocked elements in French society. Here, Émile Quinet identifies three major obstacles: French reform projects often have no implementation plan; communication between experts and public opinion is poor; and, lastly, French people have a very low level of understanding of economics. These, in his view, are the three major aspects that need to be improved if there is to be a hope of going beyond the mere repetition of old shibboleths in the area of economic reform.

Chapitre de rapport annuel vigie

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Institutions

Chapitre 6 du rapport Vigie 2008 : La couverture des risques sociaux

La Déclaration universelle des droits de l’homme de 1948 a proclamé (article 22) : « Toute personne, en tant que membre de la société, a droit à la sécurité sociale. » Soixante ans plus tard, l’Association internationale de sécurité sociale constate dans son rapport annuel : « La plus grande partie de la population mondiale est dépourvue de protection sociale. » Et là où les taux de couverture sont élevés — dans les pays riches —, les problèmes d’organisation et de financement sont aigus. Que ...

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Chapitre de rapport annuel vigie

Économie, emploi

Synthèse du rapport Vigie 2008

Il y a quelques mois, les journaux français titraient encore sur la baisse du chômage, l’amorce d’un retour à une situation de chômage frictionnel, voire de pénurie(s) de main d’oeuvre ; la crise intervient, les périodes de chômage technique se multiplient, les licenciements et dépôts de bilan vont bon train ; bref, les perspectives de l’emploi s’assombrissent, tant en France qu’à l’étranger.La crise économique majeure que nous traversons peut être un accélérateur des ...

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Futuribles

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Bibliographie prospective n°65

La Bibliographie prospective du mois de novembre 2008 consacre son Focus à un rapport publié par l'OCDE sur la politique d'innovation en Chine : Reviews of Innovation Policy: China. Le bilan des réformes apparaît très contrasté : le développement de l'enseignement supérieur étant encore insuffisant et l'importante hausse des dépenses en R&D pas toujours judicieusement attribuée, bien des défis restent encore à relever. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de comptes rendus de livres ...

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Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Territoires, réseaux

L’impact de la « crise « sur les villes et les ménages français

Quels impacts auront la crise financière mondiale et, plus généralement, la dégradation actuelle de la conjoncture sur les villes et les ménages français ? Une étude du magazine L'Expansion et d'Experian permet de dresser un panorama prévisionnel de la France " d'après la crise " et confirme que les inégalités risquent fortement de se creuser.

Analyse prospective

Économie, emploi

L’investissement socialement responsable en France

On parle souvent de la financiarisation de l'économie, ces dernières années ayant été marquées par la déréglementation et la dérégulation croissantes de la finance. Si l'économie paraît sous l'influence croissante des marchés financiers, cela permet de penser aussi, inversement, qu'il est possible de l'amender par cet intermédiaire. La prise de conscience de ce levier d'action a une longue histoire (les premiers fonds éthiques ont été lancés aux États-Unis dans les années 1920) mais, depuis ...

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Forum

Économie, emploi

The Western Financial Crisis: an Opportunity for China?

Since mid-2007 we have been witnessing a financial crisis that originated in the now notorious "subprime crisis" which developed in the United States in 2006/07. Since most of the financial institutions concerned have international ramifications, the crisis spread, damaging the confidence of many players in the global financial system, and it continues to inspire fear regarding its possible consequences.
Since the Chinese economy is closely linked to that of the USA, on account of the many letters of credit issued in dollars, American Treasury bonds held by China and export flows to the United States, is there a risk that this economic giant will be affected by the current crisis? We should not assume so, argues Philippe Delalande: on the one hand, the conditions for a property slump, followed by a banking and stock-market crisis, do not seem present in China; on the other, the current global crisis might well enable that country to reduce its pace of growth and opt for a path of "harmonious development", provided that inflation does not take off.

Forum

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Towards an "Active Solidarity Income" on the Cheap?

In late August 2008, after several months of wavering in which the projected law perhaps seemed doomed, French president Nicolas Sarkozy officially announced the introduction of a new scheme for assisting those in difficult or marginal situations, the so-called Active Solidarity Income. He also announced a timetable for the measure and how it would be funded. About four million French homes suffering from unemployment or casual employment (including 1.5 million "working poor"), or those on income support, should, he said, be affected by the measure. It is to come into force in July 2009 and will be debated in the French parliament from 22 September 2008 onwards, a few days before the publication of this issue.
Chantal Euzéby takes stock of the scheme here and reminds us how necessary it is for the benefits muddle to be reviewed and simplified, so that social benefits can recover their basic role of returning the groups concerned to work. She outlines the project for merging the various benefits, but also raises some questions that remain unanswered, concerning, for example, which social security scheme will apply to the beneficiaries, the index-linking of the new provision, and the decisions to be made over the "reinsertion" strand, particularly regarding the division of responsibilities between the state and the local authorities.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi

Les délocalisations ne sont peut-être plus si rentables…

Les exercices de prospective de ces dernières années qui portaient (pour tout ou partie) sur le commerce international comportaient généralement un scénario où le processus de mondialisation et de division internationale du travail était remis en cause, que ce soit à cause d'une montée du protectionnisme ou bien des coûts de l'énergie et du transport. À l'heure où le prix du baril de pétrole est passé de 28 dollars US en 2003 à plus de 100 dollars ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

The Sharing of Talents. Flexicurity by Employer Groupings

In the current context of economic globalization, combining employment flexibility and employee security is one of the major challenges for France and Europe. Alongside the Danish route, which consists in making redundancy easier while at the same time boosting the performance of the employment agencies, the option of employer groupings can also be very attractive, both for employees and for companies. By coming together jointly to employ their workers - who operate in various companies within the group depending on the season or day of the week - the companies provide their employees with stable, open-ended employment and, at the same time, profit from the enhanced experience of these "multi-company" workers, while, at the same time, expanding their networks and increasing their synergy.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Éducation

Les jeunes Français sans diplôme face à l’emploi

Dans un récent rapport, le CERC (Conseil de l'emploi, des revenus et de la cohésion sociale) tente de comprendre qui sont les jeunes sans diplôme en France, comment cette population a évolué au cours des dernières décennies et comment elle évoluera à l'avenir, une problématique analysée récemment par Julien Damon.

Analyse prospective

Économie, emploi

Perspectives des emplois verts

À l'heure des délocalisations et de l'intensification de la concurrence sur le marché du travail mondial1, de grands espoirs sont placés dans les perspectives économiques ouvertes par la nécessité de faire face au double défi énergétique et environnemental. Les investissements dans l'environnement, les changements nécessaires de mode de production et de transport sont censés générer d'importantes créations d'emplois dont l'un des avantages, et non le moindre, est qu'il s'agirait d'emplois " protégés ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Population

Foreign Immigration and Local Development in France

The demographic dynamic in France today is largely a product of the migration flows affecting the country. But these flows are not the same over the whole national territory: some regions receive greater inflows of immigrants than average, while others are barely involved. The impact of these migration flows on local development is not uniform either, as Gérard-François Dumont shows here.
After briefly reviewing the two main approaches to the analysis of foreign immigration and its consequences on territorial development (source of wealth vs. budgetary burden), Dumont offers a detailed region-by-region analysis of foreign immigration in France, covering such aspects as the share of regional migration, the changes to flow-patterns, the proportion of immigrants in the active population, the unemployment rate for foreign nationals of working age, the pivotal role of the Île-de-France region etc. He also analyses the - very variable - economic effects of the presence of this foreign population, taking two distinct aspects into account: the legal criterion (nationality) and the geographical criterion (origin of the immigrants, whether or not they have acquired French nationality) and studies the relations between immigration and unemployment more closely (identifying "four different Frances" here). These findings show that the effects of immigration on local development vary as a function of two distinct geographical criteria: the geographical origins of the individuals and the particular area in which they settle.

CR intervention d'expert

Économie, emploi - Population - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

« La hausse des matières premières agricoles : une inflexion durable ? »

L’exposé est centré sur la hausse des prix des produits agricoles et la sécurité alimentaire. Il s’appuie sur deux documents qui en constituent la toile de fond : — Le modèle économique « Oléosim » : analyse structurelle du marché international des produits de grande culture, basé sur les oléagineux et sur toutes les grandes productions végétales. — L’exercice de prospective « INRA 2013 », fait en parallèle avec le modèle Oléosim, simule les conséquences de l’adaptation de la Politique Agricole Commune aux décisions ...

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Note de veille

Économie, emploi

Le plan « Services à la personne « trois ans après

Trois ans après le lancement du " plan de développement des services à la personne " en France, un premier bilan des créations d'emplois dans ce secteur peut être fait. Selon les modes de calcul, celui-ci est plus ou moins positif. Toutefois, le secteur commence lentement à se professionnaliser.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi

Vers une version asiatique du FMI ?

Le 4 mai 2008, la 11e réunion des ministres des Finances de l'ASEAN+3 a rassemblé à Madrid les ministres des Finances des 10 pays de l'Association des nations de l'Asie du Sud- Est (ASEAN) et ceux de la Chine, du Japon, et de la Corée du Sud (ASEAN+3). Ils y ont annoncé la création d'un fonds commun de réserve en devises, destiné à faire face à une éventuelle crise financière régionale, doté d'un ...

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Note de veille

Économie, emploi

Production manufacturière : la Chine en perte de compétitivité ?

La compétitivité de la Chine dans le secteur de la production manufacturière s'effrite, tel est le point le plus marquant d'une étude publiée en mars 2008 par le cabinet de conseil Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) en partenariat avec l'American Chamber of Commerce de Shanghai (AmCham) . Cela signifie-t-il que les multinationales vont relocaliser leurs activités pour s'adapter à une nouvelle géographie des avantages comparatifs au profit de pays tels que l'Inde, le Viêt-nam ou la Thaïlande ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi

Growth by Decree? On the Reports "The Levers of French Growth" and "300 Decisions for Changing France"

France, which has regularly been presented by various prominent authors as a "blocked" society, if not indeed a society doomed to decline, is marking time economically and has not managed to recover a sufficient pace of economic growth to end the crisis besetting it for more than three decades. Under one government after another, reports and proposals have been produced aiming to reverse this trend, providing lists of the measures to be taken, but so far to no avail.
Two new reports in this same vein were published in late 2007 and early 2008. The first, by the Conseil d'analyse économique is entitled The Levers of French Growth (Paris: La documentation Française, 2007). The second, by the Attali Commission is called 300 Decisions for Changing France (Paris: La documentation Française/Xo éditions, 2008). Both provide quite a well-stocked list of measures aimed at re-launching the country's economic growth and Charles du Granrut has analysed and compared these for Futuribles. Though they share a diagnosis of the obstacles to growth, particularly in the employment field, the two reports converge on many points, including higher education, increased labour market flexibility, the liberalization of "closed" occupations etc. However, as Charles du Granrut reminds us, and as the previous reports (which in many cases contained very similar proposals) have proved, implementing these measures (which, according to the authors make sense only when carried out in a joined-up way) is a delicate matter, to say the least, given the various "blockages" in French society and its aversion to change, which have bedevilled earlier attempts. Moreover, the factors accounting for economic growth are not perhaps as clear as they seem.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi

La « guerre des talents « a-t-elle commencé ?

L'activité économique soutenue des grandes entreprises multinationales occidentales, conjuguée à une grande mobilité des cadres, conduit à un relèvement des rémunérations dans les pays émergents, et en particulier de celles des cadres. Des pénuries de main-d'oeuvre qualifiée commencent à apparaître, qui pourraient peut-être à terme remettre en cause les stratégies de délocalisation.

CR table ronde

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Population

L’Inde à l’horizon 2025 : ses perspectives économiques

Jean-Joseph Boillot a tout d’abord justifié le choix d’une étude de l’Inde à l’horizon 2025, qui lui paraît être une base de travail raisonnable compte tenu du cycle d’un investissement commercial (compris entre 5 et 15 ans) et, plus subjectivement, parce que cette date ne semble pas trop éloignée.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi

La situation de l’emploi en Europe s’améliore

Le chômage baisse en Europe, mais les objectifs de Lisbonne sont loin d'être atteints. La question demeure de savoir si la reprise de l'emploi est d'ordre structurel ou résulte d'un cycle économique dont la longévité est douteuse.

Chapitre Economie, emploi

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.