Économie, emploi

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Bibliography

Économie, emploi

The Future of Manufacturing : Opportunities to Drive Economic Growth

Dans ce rapport, le Forum économique mondial (FEM) met en évidence les facteurs clés du développement industriel de demain. Il propose, dans un premier temps, de relever les principaux changements survenus dans l’industrie depuis les vingt dernières années. Il tente, ensuite, de déterminer les tendances qui pourraient avoir un impact sur l’organisation de la production industrielle dans les années à venir. Enfin, il s’interroge sur les moteurs du développement industriel de demain. La mondialisation des systèmes de ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi

Delivering Tomorrow : Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study

Cette étude conjointe de la Deutsche Post et de DHL imagine cinq scénarios socioéconomiques à l’horizon 2050 et envisage leurs impacts sur la logistique en Europe.Ces scénarios étudient notamment l’évolution du commerce et de la consommation, des usages sociaux et technologiques, mais aussi le changement climatique. 42 experts ont participé à leur rédaction.Scénario 1 : Économie non-apprivoisée - effondrement imminentLa consommation de masse incontrôlée et l’exploitation anarchique des ressources accélèrent le réchauffement climatique et les catastrophes naturelles ...

(367 more words)

Bibliography

Économie, emploi

China’s Great Rebalancing Act

Fondée en 1998, Eurasia Group est une firme spécialisée dans l’analyse du risque politique.  Consacré à la Chine, le présent rapport analyse les enjeux et les perspectives du rééquilibrage de la croissance engagé par la mise en œuvre du 12ème plan quinquennal (2011-2015). Au cours des trois dernières décennies, la croissance économique de la Chine a reposé sur les exportations et sur l’investissement. Le pays est devenu l’atelier du monde, des millions de Chinois sont sortis de ...

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CR table ronde

Économie, emploi

Le grand basculement

Photo d’un désert majestueux sans légende : s’agit-il du Colorado, au nord, ou bien du désert du Tchad, au sud ? Il pourrait bien s’agir du Tchad, qui nous est moins familier et où nous serons sans doute surpris de découvrir qu’un décollage économique est en train de se produire. Le clivage Nord développé / Sud sous-développé est en train de basculer vers un Nord atone / Sud dynamique car, depuis le milieu des années 1990, les taux de croissance ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Éducation - Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

“Passerelles numériques”: Shortcuts to Upward Social Mobility

Whereas, in France, upward social mobility seems to have come to a standstill and it is less and less clear how young people are going to find jobs at a level equal or superior to that of their parents, the initiative presented here by Marthe de La Taille-Rivero provides food for thought. “Passerelles numériques”, an organization founded in 2006, has set up an IT-careers training centre in Phnom Penh especially for the most deprived young Cambodians. It is a centre that trains its students in direct association with that city’s IT companies, thus meeting local economic needs and ensuring that its trainees find jobs at the end of their courses.

In this article Marthe de La Taille-Rivero describes the origins of this project and the various actors who have contributed to its success (from both the voluntary and the business sectors). She outlines in detail how these “Gateways to the Future” operate and the principles that play a part in making them effective (as attested by the development of similar training centres in other South-East Asian countries). Lastly, she describes the economic model Passerelles numériques is striving to put in place to safeguard its funding and ensure that it continues to operate in the longer term.

Revue

Économie, emploi

France: the Prospects for Economic Growth. What Hopes should be Vested in Innovation?

Economic crisis, financial crisis, debt crisis – there has been no shortage of adjectives in the last four years to describe the crisis affecting most of the developed countries and, most particularly, those of the Old Continent. Like many European countries, France faces a difficult balancing act, in which it must improve the state of its public finances to reduce (or at the very least stabilize) the cost of servicing its debt, without hampering the dynamics of economic growth, which is itself essential in the long term to reduce the state’s indebtedness. In such a context, what are the French economy’s prospects for growth and what levers can be pulled to achieve it?
Drawing on various recent reports, Charles du Granrut begins by presenting the various projections for the development of economic growth in France over the next decade or two, stressing that the general trend is for moderate growth. He specifies the sectors in which the largest part of job creation should occur, while stressing the great fragility of the public finances in this low-growth situation.

Drawing on the teachings of economic history and on recent literature, he goes on to analyse the role which technical progress, the main engine of growth in this context, might play in re-stimulating the French economy, particularly in two major areas: industrial revival and green growth. At the end of this detailed analysis of the sources of economic growth, it has to be said that France is going to find it difficult to adjust to a mediocre long-term economic situation in a climate characterized by an increasingly vexed relationship between society and technical progress.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Population - Société, modes de vie

Controversy over Migration. A Review of Two Books: Exceptional People and Immigrant Nations

Migration issues regularly make the headlines on the continent of Europe – and in France, in particular, as can be seen from the 2012 election campaign – and they give rise to lively debate. It is the same in the UK and the USA, as Michèle Tribalat shows here in her comparative analysis of two works published in 2011: Balarajan, Cameron and Goldin’s Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped our World and Will Define our Future and Scheffer’s Immigrant Nations. Michèle Tribalat stresses, for example, the extent to which the approach to the migration issue can vary, not only in its relation to time and history, but also in the economic analysis of the impact of migration on host societies and the attention paid (or not paid) to the identity-related and cultural aspects surrounding the arrival of foreign communities in a society.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi

Hausse des salaires en Asie : vers une nouvelle donne ?

Depuis quelques années déjà, les entreprises installées en Chine doivent faire face à une hausse rapide des salaires des travailleurs. Cette inflation concerne désormais plusieurs pays asiatiques, et pourrait se poursuivre à l’avenir. Elle pourrait avoir des conséquences importantes sur les coûts de production.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi

Finance Watch : une ONG pour surveiller les dérives du secteur financier

Suite à la crise économique et financière de 2008, des députés européens ont créé Finance Watch, un contre-lobby européen dont l’objectif est de « mettre la finance au service de la société ». Il a contribué à la décision du Parlement européen d’interdire les CDS (Credit Default Swap) à nu et pourrait devenir un interlocuteur important lors des futures décisions européennes concernant le monde de la finance.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi

L’Asie et le risque européen

Malgré une conjoncture mondiale morose, les pays de l’Asie émergente devraient maintenir leur dynamique de croissance économique au cours des deux prochaines années. Les incertitudes persistantes dans la zone euro font cependant peser un risque important sur les perspectives économiques de pays très dépendants de leurs exportations. Telles sont les principales conclusions du rapport annuel de la Banque asiatique de développement (BAD) publié le 11 avril 2012.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Territoires, réseaux

The Dynamics of Industrial Territories: An Essay in Foresight within the Framework of “Territories 2040”

This article by Gilles Le Blanc is the first in a series of eight aimed at responding to the “Territories 2040” foresight exercise, launched in 2009 by DATAR (Délégation interministérielle française à l’aménagement du territoire et à l’attractivité régionale), and at showing what lessons can be learned from that work. In this first instalment, the analysis is directed at the dynamics of industrial territories.

After briefly rehearsing the approach and method used in the “Territories 2040” exercise, Gilles Le Blanc reports on the foresight study carried out on industrial territories. He first defines what is covered by the notion of “industrial territories” (on the basis, among other things, of a “geography of industrial and productive activities”), then specifies the main factors affecting the development of those territories and the range of problems associated with them (particularly the issues of company boundaries and innovation). He then presents the four scenarios imagined for the industrial territories up to the year 2040, entitled respectively: “Green Industrial Reconstruction”, “Effervescence”, “Citadels” and “Alternative Industrialization”. He goes on to stress the main issues associated with these scenarios in terms of public policy and spatial planning, emphasizing in particular the possible uses of the scenarios, the geography of industrial and productive activities that would ensue from these scenarios up to 2040 and, lastly, the key factors, the risks and threats related to each scenario.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Insurance of the Nuclear Risk in France

This March, Japan commemorated the first anniversary of the Fukushima tragedy, when an unhappy combination of natural disasters led to a nuclear accident. The material and human damage was enormous and it will be decades before memories fade and the Japanese can try to forget this tragedy, which attests to the great vulnerability of – even the most advanced – economies to natural and technological risks. In the wake of the accident, there has been much debate on the pertinence of the use of nuclear fission in energy production, particularly in France. Without going over these debates once again, it is nonetheless legitimate to ask not just how well equipped we are to prevent nuclear risks, but also how the consequences of a potential nuclear disaster would be dealt with in this country.

It is this question that Guy Brassard latches on to. After reminding us of the limits of the responsibility of EDF (Électricité de France) and the state in France regarding the indemnification of the damage that would ensue from such a disaster, Brassard stresses the inadequacy of the guarantees in force and calls for the creation of a reserve fund for exceptional events. He stresses the need to mitigate the nuclear risk through a clear assessment of power stations on the basis of uniform security parameters, a publicly available economic analysis of the electricity mix, and the establishment of measures of efficiency and prudence in the use of France’s nuclear resources.
He ends by proposing a model, based on a large number of international studies, for calculating the costs of a scheme for insuring against exceptional risks. From these it emerges that a very moderate increase in the price of electricity would make it possible to set aside 100 billion euros over 18 years to meet a risk that would arise only once every century. A relatively negligible investment for the future by comparison with the cost to the public finances of such a disaster occurring.

Futurs d'antan

Économie, emploi

The Greek Finances, as Seen from 1854

Edmond About, who passed the prestigious agrégation examination in 1851 and was to know success some years later as a writer and dramatist, was appointed a member of the French School at Athens in that same year. He joined the institution in 1852 and lived in Greece for a little under two years. It was an inspiring stay and from it he derived one of his first books, La Grèce contemporaine (Paris: Hachette & compagnie, 1854), which went through many editions during his lifetime. Tackling various facets of Greece (country, people, economic activities, family, religion, institutions etc.), which had been independent from the Ottoman empire for only 20 years or so, the book also has a chapter a good 30 pages in length on the Greek public finances.

We reprint here only the first part, which offers “general observations on the financial situation of Greece” (the following section goes much further into the technical details of the budgetary mechanism). These observations by Edmond About from more than a century and a half ago seem to us highly relevant in the current European context, in which the Greek public debt crisis continues to complicate the fragile economic situation of the eurozone countries.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi

La finance participative : un service d’avenir ?

Fin 2011, la première agence de notation participative est née : Wikirating fonctionne sur le même modèle que Wikipédia (l’encyclopédie participative) et pourrait être une illustration de la reconfiguration de la finance évoquée dans le Rapport Vigie 2012.

Revue

Économie, emploi

On the Proper Use of Finance

The sub-prime crisis in 2007-2008 marked the beginning of a dark period for the developed economies, the end of which does not yet seem to be in sight. One of the consequences has been the stigmatization of those in international finance accused of producing the crisis. Lacking adequate regulation, the financial machine effectively ran out of control, taking with it large swathes of the global economy against the background of a generalized crisis of confidence among the main players in the financial sector. As Bertrand Collomb reminds us here, the sector had actually drifted too far away from its primary functions, which lay in financing the real economy, and it is now urgent that it becomes refocused on that objective. Collomb thus goes through the various technically possible avenues for cleaning up international finance. He also stresses the need to do so in concerted fashion, not forgetting the importance of the sector in the financing of public debt.

Tribune européenne

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

The Franco-German Couple and Budgetary Discipline

Since the creation of the European Community in 1957, the construction of Europe has largely been down to Franco-German cooperation and the capacity of those two countries to overcome their differences to advance the economic and political integration of the continent. However, Jean-François Drevet tells us, this “exemplary cooperation” seems to be running up against its limits in the current context of crisis and excessive indebtedness of the states of Europe. For it is clear that Germany, which made sacrifices to overcome the cost of reunification in the 1990s, intends that today’s debt-distressed European states will do the same, so as not to drag down the entire European edifice with them in their (potential) fall. France, not greatly attracted by the budgetary conception its Rhenish neighbour has of the Union, would prefer the option of a European “economic governance”, allowing considerable scope for the inter-governmental element. However, its economic and budgetary situation, which is far worse than that of Germany, hardly puts it in a position of strength. It is hence a sound bet, concludes Drevet, that the Union will only be able to get out of the economic and political impasse in which it finds itself through an evolution towards federalism inspired by the Rhenish model.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi

Investissement étranger : les nouvelles priorités de Pékin

La version actualisée du catalogue d’orientation de l’investissement étranger en Chine est entrée en vigueur le 30 janvier 2012. Au-delà d’une libéralisation tempérée et cantonnée à certains secteurs, cette actualisation reflète clairement le rôle que les autorités chinoises assignent à l’investissement étranger, conçu comme un vecteur d’appropriation des savoir-faire et des technologies les plus avancés au bénéfice des industries domestiques.

CR table ronde

Économie, emploi

L’échéance

François de Closets, après une carrière de journaliste pour la presse écrite et pour la télévision dans les domaines de la science, de l’économie et de la santé, a produit une vingtaine d’essais sur la société française et ses dysfonctionnements, dont la plupart ont été des best-sellers depuis son célèbre ouvrage « Toujours plus ! » (Paris : Grasset, 1982). Dans son dernier livre, « L’Échéance. Français, vous n’avez encore rien vu… » (Paris : Fayard, 2011) coécrit avec Irène Inchauspé, journaliste financière ...

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Analyse prospective

Économie, emploi

Les investissements chinois à l’étranger

En novembre 2011, les dirigeants européens ont souhaité la participation de la Chine au Fonds européen de stabilité et leur demande a été accueillie par une fin de non recevoir. Assis sur un matelas de réserves dont le montant dépasse le PIB (produit intérieur brut) de la France, les Chinois préfèrent intervenir de manière bilatérale en finançant la construction d’infrastructures, en investissant ou en rachetant des entreprises. Deuxième pays d’accueil des investissements directs étrangers dans le monde, la ...

(81 more words)

Note de veille

Économie, emploi

En 2012, le Royaume-Uni lance les fonds de pension low cost

En 2006, pour réduire la pauvreté des retraités, le gouvernement britannique a entamé une réforme de son système de retraite. Le Pension Act 2007 annonçait, entre autres, pour 2012, l’obligation pour tous les employés d’adhérer à un fond de pension dès l’embauche. Cette année, trois groupes proposeront leurs services low cost aux salariés britanniques.

Futurs d'antan

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Institutions

Crisis in the Eurozone: The Contemporary Relevance of the Werner Plan of 1970 (Future of Yesteryear)

For some months now, the European Union has been facing an economic and financial crisis in which the challenge to the member states has been to find the means to bolster the economic governance of the eurozone. If they fail to do so, the monetary union that has been in existence for some 10 years might hit the buffers. There have been ever more European summits and Franco-German meetings aimed at finding a way out of the Greek crisis and, more generally, a solution to the general destabilization of the European financial system, but ultimately, as Frédéric Allemand shows here, they are hardly proposing anything more than was advocated in the Werner Report of 1970. That report had, in fact, drawn up a particularly far-sighted “plan for achieving economic and monetary union by stages.” However, for want of genuine political support at the time, it was not carried through.

Economic and monetary union was, indeed, established by the Maastricht Treaty in the 1990s, but the union provided was of a minimal kind and did not follow the recommendations proposed by the Werner Report, of which Frédéric Allemand reminds us here. As a result, monetary integration was implemented without economic integration, and particularly without the establishment of a “decision-making centre for economic policy” that would be responsible to the European Parliament and enforce strict control of national budgetary policies. Now that the facts have cruelly shown up the failings that ensued from the omission of such a central structure, perhaps Europe’s leaders will at last get back to fundamentals and, wittingly or otherwise, see through the various stages of the Werner Plan…

Editorial

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Le défi de l’emploi

Deux défis majeurs, au moins, devraient être à l’ordre du jour de la campagne précédant la prochaine élection présidentielle française, pour autant toutefois que les candidats veuillent bien les aborder et éclairer les électeurs sur leurs propositions plus ou moins différentes pour les relever.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Le protectionnisme version Mercosur, un nouveau modèle commercial ?

Alors que les pays européens réfléchissent à des solutions fiscales et douanières pour favoriser leurs productions locales, les pays d’Amérique du Sud, eux, multiplient depuis plusieurs années déjà les mesures protectionnistes. L’Argentine se distingue particulièrement dans ce domaine, car le gouvernement considère que le protectionnisme est nécessaire à la sauvegarde de l’industrie du pays.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Éducation

Culture financière : bonnet d’âne pour les Français

En mars 2010, dans les colonnes de Futuribles, Julien Damon présentait l’éducation financière comme une innovation sociale en plein développement . La France, qui dispose pourtant d’outils innovants favorisant la diffusion des connaissances en matière financière, se situe parmi les plus mauvais élèves (des pays développés) dans ce domaine.