In this September issue of Futuribles, we continue the “Greater Paris” theme that was addressed in July by Mario Polèse and Jean-Claude Prager (issue no. 401). Here Émile Quinet outlines the lessons to be learned from the evaluation of the proposed Greater Paris Metro, which he has studied closely as a member of the independent committee set up by the “Société du Grand Paris” to subject the project to scientific scrutiny.
Quinet first goes over the content and anticipated cost of the project. Then, deploying various different scenarios, he offers a socio-economic evaluation of its effects, as traditionally estimated in the transport field: in terms of time saved, environmental and demographic impacts, and effects on employment (volume of jobs, location etc.). He rounds off his analysis by examining the possible impact on the regional economy of the gains achieved in the transport field, estimated using specific models (particularly the Pirandello model): changes to economic activity, increases in income, productivity etc. The result is a positive impact in all three of the scenarios considered (“low”, “central” and “high”). Lastly, Quinet undertakes an evaluation of this evaluation, facilitating a better grasp of the method used and the lessons to be drawn from it, and enabling emphasis to be placed on the necessary integration of the Greater Paris project into the regional economic development strategy. This implies, among other things, that the project should be linked to housing and transport policies in the Île-de-France region.