The current economic and financial crisis is still very much in the news and very few commentators are able to predict how it will develop. Futuribles, which has already published various analyses on this topic (see, e.g., October and December 2008), continues this month with a discussion piece by Alain Bienaymé, who returns with insights into the preconditions for this crisis and also reflects on how it might develop.
Bienaymé shows how, after an initial phase characterized by the excesses of market finance, which neither the actions of the most powerful governments nor moves by the central banks seem to have sorted out, the crisis is confounding most prognoses. He goes on to point out that, once the immediate storm has passed, it will not be possible to return to the economic model of the years 1980-2008, among other things because of the social costs incurred, the inability of the international markets to regulate themselves and the pernicious effects of the hitherto dominant management models (which have brought about "that worst form of wastage, a waste of human resources"). Lastly, he reminds us that this economic crisis has to be grasped within a broader context, taking account of the environmental issues (climate change, scarce resources etc.) that directly affect the choice of the future growth model or models.