Union européenne

Bibliography

Géopolitique

Future Shocks 2022

Future Shocks 2022: Addressing Risks and Building Capabilities for Europe in a Contested World

Le Service de recherche du Parlement européen (European Parliamentary Research Service) a publié début 2022, peu après les débuts de l’invasion de l’Ukraine par les troupes russes, une étude sur les menaces futures auxquelles pourrait être confrontée l’Union européenne (UE). Cette étude se présente comme étant la première édition d’un document qui paraîtra à l’avenir annuellement. Cela pourrait à terme rapprocher ce type d’études de l’Annual Threat Assessment des services de renseignement américains ...

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Chronique européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

To Expand or to Deepen the European Union? New Elements of an Old Dilemma

The UK’s official departure from the European Union in early 2020 and the acceleration of Ukraine’s EU application process following conflict with Russia in 2022, has revived debate on the development of European institutions. In the context of renewed tensions on the continent and the exposure of the vulnerabilities of European states in some key sectors (energy foremost among them), greater solidarity in stance and action seems necessary and is desired by various member states (including France and Germany). However, current institutional arrangements make this complicated, if not indeed impossible, in a very broad EU that includes some less tractable countries and some governments that no longer totally share certain values (including the democratic values) of their partners. Should we, then, expand the EU or do the opposite and deepen its mode of organization in a more federalist direction? Jean-François Drevet re-examines this dilemma, which has been to the fore since the creation of the European Community, in the light of the institutional developments the Union has undergone and the limits these have exposed over time. Confronted with the many questions raised by the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, with regard to energy independence, economic sovereignty or geopolitical leadership, the EU will not be able to sidestep this debate for much longer.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Twinning the Green and Digital Transitions in the European Union: The EU’s 2022 Strategic Foresight Report

Because of its effects on energy supplies, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has speeded up efforts to develop renewable energy sources in Europe, thus indirectly contributing to the EU’s ecological transition. However, to secure the implementation of that transition in this new context — and combine it with the digital transition, a second major axis of European policy — it is essential to develop a robust, long-term strategy. This is what is advocated in the EU’s 2022 Strategic Foresight Report, the official presentation of which we carry in this issue.

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions

Europe contre Europe

Europe contre Europe. Entre liberté, solidarité et puissance

Le lecteur qui viendra à bout des 496 pages de cet excellent ouvrage y trouvera des réponses très documentées sur les principaux problèmes de la construction européenne depuis sa création. En effet, il est très utile qu’un spécialiste de l’histoire de l’Europe ait le courage de nous faire partager son érudition sur ces questions souvent ignorées ou mal comprises. Elles sont tellement nombreuses que ce commentaire ne pourra en aborder que quelques-unes. La structure de l’ouvrage ...

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Chronique européenne

Géopolitique

Should we Believe in the Resurrection of NATO?

On 29-30 June 2022, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) brought together the heads of state and government of its member nations and key partners in Madrid. At the heart of the discussions was the examination of current and future security challenges, which are particularly sizeable in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, and also the accession of two European countries that have previously remained neutral, Finland and Sweden. NATO has widely been seen as moribund in recent years, particularly during the Trump presidency in the USA, but might present geopolitical and strategic developments be changing all that and lending the Atlantic alliance renewed dynamism?

This is partly the case, as this European Chronicle shows, but this renewed interest in—and dynamism of—NATO should not be allowed to obscure a number of questions that are as yet unresolved. What is the alliance’s real deterrent capacity? Enlarged to more and more countries, not all of them equally well equipped militarily, is it really able—and prepared—to defend all its members over the slightest incident? Doesn’t an enlargement of this kind run the risk of exacerbating tensions with Russia? Does Turkey (with its authoritarian regime) remain a legitimate player in an alliance that advocates the defence of democracy? With all these questions surrounding it, wouldn’t the European Union be better off substantially strengthening its own defence and security policy?

Repères

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

The European Union’s Energy Strategy

For several years now, the EU has made ambitious noises on the environmental front (with its ‘Green Deal’ in 2019 and ‘Climate Package’ in 2021), particularly the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050, with an intermediate objective of a 55% reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. However, Russia’s war in Ukraine and its impact in the field of energy have changed the terms of debate. This ‘Signposts’ article offers an update on the EU’s energy strategy (REPowerEU), as it is emerging in this new context.

Note de veille

Géopolitique

Le projet européen de système de combat aérien du futur peut-il aboutir ?

Envisagé en 2017, le projet européen de système de combat aérien du futur (SCAF) vise à construire un avion de combat de nouvelle génération, mais aussi un ensemble interconnecté d’armes aériennes opérant autour de cet avion. Ce projet, particulièrement ambitieux pour la défense européenne en termes aussi bien stratégiques que politiques, doit néanmoins faire face à plusieurs obstacles majeurs. Le lancement du projet SCAF a coïncidé avec le besoin de remplacer, en France, le Rafale (en service dans la ...

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Chronique européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

Ukraine, the 28th Member State?

It is difficult to know how things will stand with the Russo-Ukrainian conflict when this summer issue appears, but, as we go to press, it is highly unlikely that the situation will have returned to what it was in February 2022. Will the borders of Ukraine have moved again by comparison with what they were in 2014 before Russia annexed Crimea? Will Vladimir Putin’s troops have retreated?

But if President Volodymyr Zelensky is still in power, discussion of Ukraine’s possible entry into the European Union will still be as live as it is currently. Is such a prospect imaginable? On what terms and what timescale? In this ‘European Chronicle’, Jean-François Drevet puts Ukraine’s fast-track request to join the Union into perspective, both in geopolitical and institutional terms. He reminds us, in particular, how accession processes are long and complex (several Balkan countries have been patiently waiting in the accession antechamber for a number of years) and require detailed preparation and negotiation between the candidate and the EU; he also stresses the very special context represented by the ambitions and security approach of Ukraine’s Russian neighbour. So many elements that do not conduce toward a fast-track approach, but make it more likely that there will be increased financial and material aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia before — once the situation has been stabilized — consideration of Kyiv’s accession demand in accordance with the usual process previously followed by the EU, though possibly preceded by an intensified association period.

Futurs d'antan

Géopolitique - Institutions

The Long March towards the European Union: From Victor Hugo’s ‘United States of Europe’ to the Treaties of Rome

When Russia went to war in Ukraine in late February 2022, it reawakened painful memories of an age when Europe was regularly beset by wars and conflict between neighbours. At a time when, thanks to the construction of the European Union and its successive enlargements to most of the continent, the Old Continent believed that it was now at peace, this reappearance of war on European soil — and on the EU’s border — is a worrying development. It also shows the vulnerabilities that remain within the EU, both in terms of military defence and energy dependence. With regard to these two aspects, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict might well encourage the countries of Europe to take a further step towards political integration, a move already advocated by Victor Hugo in the mid-19th century, when he called on European countries to come together in a ‘higher unity’, both economically and politically. Hugo, already arguing for a form of federalism, was ultimately, two or three wars later, to find 20th-century followers in the shape of the founding fathers of the European Community (Robert Schuman and Jean Monnet in particular). This is recalled here in this ‘Future of Yesteryear’ article by Pierre Papon, in which he cites long extracts from the founding speeches that led to Europe building itself, slowly and incrementally, through economic interdependence. With genuine political integration perhaps in prospect at a later stage…

Chronique européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

Europe, France and Multi-tier Governance

Following the territorial reform begun in 2014, marked by the move from 22 to 13 regions in 2016 and by the development of ‘inter-communality’, France has seen the number of its local administrative authorities fall a little; it nevertheless remains among EU member states with the greatest number of territorial units. Despite efforts at simplification, of which Jean-François Drevet reminds us in this article, advances have come slowly and the present fragmentation of decisional levels does nothing to simplify governance for citizens. Similarly, even if the institutional development of the European Union (by ‘baby steps’) has made it possible increasingly to delegate some member-state competencies to the European level, the decision-making process (particularly the requirement for unanimity in some key matters) also has a cost, not only in terms of efficiency but also of image. With the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as with policy toward Turkey some years ago, the limits of the system are showing, as is the need to strengthen the EU’s decision-making capacity, so that it can react more quickly and nimbly. New institutional developments are essential for this, in the direction of greater federalism; as a consequence, France will very definitely have to reconsider its choices at all levels of its governance structures.

Repères

Géopolitique - Institutions

European Defence Budgets Following the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict

Following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and renewed tensions in Europe, the Signposts section of this issue takes stock of the defence budgets of the EU countries and their development trends.

Revue

Territoires, réseaux

The Railways — Engine of Future Mobility in Europe?

With the Green Pact that was launched in 2019 and the ‘Climate Package’ of 2021, the European Union has shown great ambition on the environmental front, particularly with its goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and intermediate aim of a 55% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Some sectors are of particularly strategic importance here, beginning with transport, since it is the leading greenhouse gas emitting sector in the EU (more than 25% of the total). To decarbonize this sector, the main emphasis has to be on public transport and modes of transport with the lowest emissions. Among these, railways have pride of place but receive insufficient support from European investors and politicians. With the European Year of Railways ending in December 2021, Catherine Vieilledent shows here how European railways policy has evolved over recent decades, and how rail has fallen behind when it could play a lead role in the Union’s environmental strategy. She stresses the advantages of intra-European rail transport (for both passengers and freight) and the importance of re-balancing modes of transport (with the aim of encouraging a modal shift). In so doing, she is arguing for the completion, as soon as possible, of the trans-European rail network, a key element in ‘sustainable resilient mobility’ on the Old Continent.

Note de veille

Géopolitique - Institutions

Les budgets de défense européens : état des lieux

L’invasion russe de l’Ukraine le rappelle sans équivoque : les conflits conventionnels d’ampleur et de haute intensité n’appartiennent plus à l’Histoire. Cette guerre agit comme un électrochoc pour les démocraties occidentales qui voient la ruine, les cohortes de réfugiés, les combats se rapprocher de leurs frontières orientales. De nombreux dirigeants européens ont très rapidement annoncé un renforcement de leur effort de défense. Il apparaît donc utile de faire un point sur les budgets de défense et ...

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Note de veille

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Confiance, peurs et démocratie en perspective

Pour réfléchir aux futuribles envisageables après l’agression subie par l’Ukraine, mettons en perspective les évolutions actuelles des opinions. Référons-nous à deux enquêtes menées en 2018 et 2021. La première dans 42 pays [1], la seconde dans 55 pays [2], recueillant les opinions de 47 408 personnes en juillet-août 2021. Elle a été effectuée par Ipsos pour Fondapol et six autres think-tanks [3]. Les régimes totalitaires chinois, turc et russe suscitaient déjà, en 2018, beaucoup de craintes. Mais l ...

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Podcast

E11 - Les News du futur. Autonomie stratégie de l’Union européenne face à la Chine

Futuribles · E11 - Les News du futur. Autonomie stratégie de l'Union européenne face à la Chine L’Institut Jacques Delors a publié en décembre 2021 un rapport consacré à l’autonomie stratégique de l’Europe face à la Chine. La guerre en Ukraine modifie le contexte dans lequel se pose cette question de l’autonomie stratégique notamment du fait des incertitudes sur le positionnement de la Chine vis-à-vis de ce conflit.Dans cet épisode des News du Futur, Sylvie BERMANN ...

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Vidéo

Institutions

Les institutions de l’Union européenne face aux crises - Table ronde autour de Robin Degron

Robin Degron est haut fonctionnaire, professeur de droit, docteur en géographie économique. Ses travaux portent notamment sur la construction européenne, les territoires et les finances publiques vertes. Robin Degron met en discussion ses réflexions prospectives sur les défis posés aux institutions européennes, particulièrement par la multiplication des crises et la confrontation aux enjeux environnementaux. Cette table ronde animée par François de Jouvenel, délégué général de Futuribles International, s'est tenue en visioconférence le vendredi 4 février 2022. Site internet : https ...

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Revue

Géopolitique

Towards a Post-Brexit Foresight

It was on 31 January 2020 that the United Kingdom’s Withdrawal Agreement from the European Union was signed, followed, after difficult negotiations, by an agreement of 30 December 2020 specifying the arrangements for co-operation between the EU and the UK. This Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into force on a permanent basis in May 2021, marking Britain’s official exit. But things are far from being settled (as has been evident in the area of fisheries or Northern Ireland), and the question of future prospects, both for the UK as a country going it alone on the international stage and its relations with the EU, remains largely open, both in trade/economic terms and at the diplomatic level.

Derek Martin and Jean-François Drevet attempt to provide some answers to these questions and to cast light on the post-Brexit future on both sides of the Channel. How do relations stand between London and Brussels? Might they remain lastingly ‘acrimonious’? Will the UK withstand the tensions generated by Brexit among the Celtic nations? Can it recover its major international standing? Two scenarios are proposed: the (probably illusory) advent of a ‘Global Britain’ and the ‘return of the prodigal son’ to the EU (though on what conditions?). In either case, the point is to anticipate what the post-Brexit period could lead to in the medium-to-long term, and for both parties — the UK and the EU — to equip themselves with appropriate strategies.

Chronique européenne

Géopolitique

Angela Merkel’s European Orphans?

After 16 years at the head of Europe’s most economically powerful nation, Angela Merkel departed the German chancellery at the end of 2021, leaving the European Union, in the view of some commentators, virtually orphaned. But is this really the case? Might her exit not provide an opportunity to relaunch some different strands of European policy? As Jean-François Drevet sees it, a number of signs given out by the new ruling coalition in Germany (of Social-Democrats, Greens and Liberals) seem to point to such a development. This is particularly the case with respect to institutional advance (perhaps towards a federal Europe) or the possible stiffening of its foreign policy to tackle Europe’s autocratic neighbours (particularly Russia and Turkey) with more than merely economic responses, such a move perhaps also heralding a revival of the Franco-German partnership. All in all, thanks to this passing of the baton in Berlin a new era might emerge, potentially aided by the French presidency of the EU and the future clarification of relations with the post-Brexit UK.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Construire l’autonomie de l’Europe face à la Chine

Construire l’autonomie de l’Europe face à la Chine

L’Union européenne (UE) a tardé à prendre en compte l’influence croissante de la Chine dans le monde et ce n’est qu’en 2019 que la Commission européenne a proposé une stratégie pour y faire face, sur la base d’un triptyque la considérant comme un « partenaire, concurrent commercial et rival systémique ». La relation de l’Europe avec la Chine est un enjeu important qui a conduit l’Institut Jacques Delors à constituer un groupe de travail sur ...

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Note de veille

Économie, emploi

Plan européen de relance : un défi pour l’Espagne, l’Italie… et l’Europe

Le Recovery Plan, le plan de relance des pays de l’Union européenne (UE) atteindra-t-il ses objectifs ? Difficilement si l’Espagne et l’Italie venaient à s’effondrer. Leur déconfiture aurait « des conséquences très négatives en France » souligne Yves Bertoncini [1]. Ajoutons que cela fragiliserait la démocratie en Europe, en renforçant les courants populistes dopés par les réseaux numériques. Le plan de 750 milliards d’euros, adopté en juillet 2020, le NextGenerationEU, constitue le « plus vaste train de mesures de ...

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Chronique européenne

Géopolitique - Population

Europe Caught in the Migration Trap?

Six years after the migration crisis episode of 2015, which ended in a controversial deal between the European Union and Turkey for containing the inflow of refugees from Syria, a new crisis has been sparked this autumn (2021). This one has broken out on the borders of Poland and is driven by the Belarusian authorities by way of a riposte to EU sanctions. With populist parties gaining ground in many countries and making their case by combatting immigration and the Islamism they associate with it, questions of migration are looming larger in public debate on both the Right and Left. It is not unusual, in these debates, for the fierce opponents of immigration to hold the European Union responsible.

However, as this opinion piece shows, matters are not so simple. The EU has, admittedly, promoted the free movement of persons within the Union and, hence, intra-European migration (as a response to real labour-force needs among its most developed members). But both the management of migrant flows from external countries and the integration of migrants fall within the remit of national governments. Each has a role to play then: it is up to the EU to establish an effective agreed migration policy that doesn’t heap all the burden on the member states at its borders, and for the individual states to review their national integration policies so as not to play into the hands of extremists of whatever kind.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

La Chine et les infrastructures portuaires en Europe : risque de dépendance ?

L’Europe serait-elle menacée d’un risque de dépendance à l’égard de la Chine qui chercherait à contrôler une partie du trafic de ses ports maritimes, en prenant les commandes de ces derniers, ou à tout le moins de certains d’entre eux ? Pour répondre à cette question, il est nécessaire de distinguer entre d’un côté ce qui relève de la stratégie des entreprises maritimes, dans le contexte du marché concurrentiel maritime mondialisé, de l’autre des politiques ...

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Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Modelling Environmental and Climate Ambition in the Agricultural Sector with the CAPRI Model

Modelling Environmental and Climate Ambition in the Agricultural Sector with the CAPRI Model

N.B. : Le titre complet de cette étude est : Modelling Environmental and Climate Ambition in the Agricultural Sector with the CAPRI Model. Exploring the Potential Effects of Selected Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies Targets in the Framework of the 2030 Climate Targets and the post-2020 Common Agricultural Policy. Deux stratégies européennes fixent des cibles à atteindre dans les domaines de l’agriculture et de l’environnement d’ici à 2030 : les stratégies biodiversité (Biodiversity Strategy, BDS) et « De la ...

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Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions

Le Réveil de la pensée européenne

Le Réveil de la pensée européenne

Le livre très documenté de Patrick d’Humières (avec une dédicace à la députée européenne Marielle de Sarnez, décédée début 2021) couvre un vaste champ de réflexion que cette phrase de l’auteur pourrait résumer ainsi : « pour atteindre une autonomie stratégique, l’UE [Union européenne] doit d’abord atteindre une autonomie de pensée […] elle doit s’émanciper du cadre néolibéral et y substituer son modèle économique autour de ses valeurs propres de solidarité et d’universalité. » Dans le chapitre 1 ...

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Actualité du futur

Institutions

Conférence annuelle d’ESPAS : vers un renouveau de la prospective en Europe ?

Les 18 et 19 novembre, s’est tenue (en ligne) la conférence annuelle d’ESPAS (European Strategy and Policy Analysis System), l’agence interinstitutionnelle ayant pour fonction de faire vivre la prospective au sein des organes de l’Union européenne (UE). Intitulée « Shaping Europe’s Future: Global Trends and Strategic Choices », elle avait une double ambition : faire connaître les travaux de l’agence ainsi que les méthodologies qu’elle adopte, et faire se rencontrer des prospectivistes et des décideurs politiques ...

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