Stratégie (étude de cas)


Économie, emploi - Institutions - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Tracer la voie vers une Europe plus résiliente

Prospective stratégique. Tracer la voie vers une Europe plus résiliente. Rapport de prospective stratégique 2020

Le 9 septembre 2020, la Commission européenne rendait son premier rapport de prospective stratégique, afin de « tracer la voie vers une Europe plus résiliente ». Premier d’une série de rapports annuels de ce type, il s’inscrit dans une volonté de l’Union européenne (UE) de placer la prospective stratégique au cœur de l’élaboration des politiques publiques. En pleine crise sanitaire, ce rapport a pour objectif de faire de la résilience le nouveau point de référence des politiques européennes ...

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Biodiversity: Visions and Strategies — Six Visions for Preserving Biodiversity to 2050

As part of the series on the oceans, seas and coasts launched in July-August 2020, biologist Gilles Boeuf alerted us in our previous issue (no. 440, Jan-Feb 2021) to the importance of marine biodiversity and the risks it faces from climate change. Continuing that series and following on from the warning from Gilles Boeuf, this article by Benoît Labbouz, Sarah Lumbroso, Isabelle Vial and Denis Lacroix presents the lessons learned from a 2020 foresight exercise on the preservation of biodiversity to 2050, within the framework of a research/action project on which the French Office for Biodiversity combined with AgroParisTech.

Six visions of the state and management of biodiversity in metropolitan France up to 2050 were constructed and are played out here for our series, as a way of specifically addressing marine biodiversity issues. This article reviews elements of the framing of the problem and the methodology. It goes on to outline these six visions and a first series of lessons drawn from them. These represent a challenge for actors in the environmental field with regard to the concerns to be considered and the available options and levers for improving the state of biodiversity.


Géopolitique - Institutions


Bouleversement. Les nations face aux crises et au changement

Voir l’analyse de l’édition originale en anglais (2019), par Pierre Papon, accessible sur notre site en cliquant sur ce lien.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail

Capital immatériel : exercice pratique

Pour préparer une sortie aussi positive que possible de la crise actuelle et mieux résister aux suivantes, les entreprises doivent se poser quelques questions vitales : quelle est leur agilité, leur capacité à prévenir ou déceler un changement dans leur environnement, à prendre les décisions qui s’imposent et passer à l’acte ? Comment renforcer les capacités à gérer le changement, même imprévu, donc à innover, voire à se réinventer ? Quelles sont les mesures les plus urgentes ? Les réponses à ces ...

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Analyse prospective

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

L’Union européenne face à la pauvreté

Comment l’Union européenne envisage-t-elle la pauvreté ? Quels objectifs s’assigne-t-elle en la matière ? Quels sont ses instruments d’intervention ? Quelles sont les perspectives ? Dans les années 2010, la stratégie « Europe 2020 » a fixé un objectif chiffré de réduction du nombre de pauvres (moins 20 millions). À l’heure des premiers bilans, il apparaît qu’une telle ambition n’a pas été atteinte et pourrait être contrariée encore par la crise économique issue de la pandémie de Covid-19.


Population - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

The Sea is Rising: Impacts and Strategies. Scenarios to 2100 and Adaptative Trajectories

In October 2019, AllEnvi [the French National Alliance for Environmental Research] published the findings of a foresight study on the environmental, social and economic consequences of rising sea levels — one of the direct manifestations of climate change — in the years to 2100 and the way we might anticipate these consequences and prepare for them. That exercise, based on the scenario-building method, enabled eight general scenarios and three territorial focuses to be developed. Denis Lacroix and Nicolas Rocle outline its main lessons here.

After first going into the framing, methodology and context involved, they present the scenarios in three family groups (‘Coastal adaptation’, ‘Denial’ and ‘Fragmented World’), together with the territorial focuses relating to the Aquitaine Basin, the Netherlands and Vietnam. These scenarios reveal potential sea-level rises, the consequences for the coastline and the strategies to be adopted to mitigate the impacts and, most importantly, adapt to them.

Since the conditions for a reversal of the present situation (which would require highly virtuous global policies) are hardly likely to eventuate in any near timeframe, the aim is now to prepare for the coastline to be overwhelmed by the sea. The warning is all the more serious as a growing number of our contemporaries are concentrated in such areas, not to speak of the holidaymakers who rush there and of the other consequences that may ensue, as evidenced by the most exposed territories. To keep coastal areas in a state described by the authors as lying between ‘moderate’ and ‘serious’, it is essential that decision-makers and citizens work as of now on resilience and energy saving… We shall come back to this subject, this article being the first of a series on the sea that will continue in late 2020 or in 2021.


Géopolitique - Institutions

Upheaval : How Nations Cope with Crisis and Change

Upheaval: How Nations Cope with Crisis and Change

Jared Diamond poursuit ses réflexions sur l’effondrement (titre de son livre paru en 2005 [1]) de sociétés confrontées à des crises, en comparant, dans Upheaval, les réactions de sept pays face à un bouleversement (upheaval). Sa méthode, exposée dans son premier chapitre, est originale. Il tire des enseignements de deux crises personnelles et des conseils de thérapeutes : des doutes métaphysiques sur sa vocation de chercheur en préparant sa thèse de physiologie à Cambridge, ultérieurement il se reconvertit à la ...

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Cities and Climate –What Visions?

Given the difficulty of achieving a global agreement to cope with the challenges of climate change or even a national resilience programme, an increasing number of initiatives are coming up from the local level for pre-emptively implementing policies to adapt to climate change or combat it. There are several towns and cities across the world that have taken this line (Copenhagen, Totnes, Växjö, Bristol, etc.) but, as Jean Haëntjens shows here, an effective response to climate change requires the development of a genuine strategic vision capable of mobilizing all the actors concerned. For the moment, the towns and cities that have managed to come up with such a vision are few and far between.

After a –largely historical– review of the importance of vision in changes of urban paradigm, Jean Haëntjens stresses how much twenty-first century eco-urbanism broadens the range of possible solutions to the many issues facing our towns and cities today. But, though digital innovations in fact offer new opportunities at the local level, we should nonetheless be wary of “technological solutionism”: the new technologies are tools which towns and cities can use to their advantage, but to become really “smart” they have to develop a vision. After presenting a series of established or emerging urban models (the frugal city, the creative city, the leisure city and the eco-metropolis), along with the values and imaginative conceptions that underpin them, this article shows –without being unaware of the potential obstacles– how a town or city can produce and renew its strategic vision to reinvent itself and meet the challenges of today.


Société, modes de vie

Culture and the Media in Perspective

In 2009 the French Ministry of Culture and Communication celebrated its 50th anniversary (it was created by André Malraux in 1959) and on that occasion decided to look towards the future also by launching a large-scale foresight and strategic study for the organization, aimed at taking in developments in the many fields covered by cultural activities. How can France, often presented as a case of cultural exceptionalism, come to terms with the three major dynamics affecting culture in the broad sense: the digital shift, globalization and the rise of individualism? How can the Ministry of Culture and its associated policies adapt to these changes, while also taking account of the changes in cultural practices?

Philippe Chantepie, who coordinated this enormous foresight and strategic exercise, reports its main findings here. He begins by presenting the factors and components of the cultural system that provided the basis for identifying four possible future scenarios for culture and the media up to 2030 (“Continued Exceptionalism”, “The Cultural Market”, “The Creative Imperative” and “The Culture of Identities”), together with 20 issues ensuing from these. Then, taking this diagnosis into account, he explains the strategic orientations to be envisaged by the Ministry of Culture and Communication in its organization and in the policies it puts in place in the years to 2020. The aim must now be to take account of the profound change of context at the national, European and world levels, and of the changes in practices which are going to intensify as new generations come on the scene, and to adapt to these while taking account of the new actors intervening in the cultural field, preserving the legitimacy of a policy and innovating in the three major fields of activity which it covers: namely, artistic creation, heritage, and the cultural industries and media.


Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Post-carbon Society: Pioneering Cities

In 2009 a programme was launched, steered jointly by the Foresight Mission of the French Ecology Ministry and by the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), called “Rethinking Cities in a Post-carbon Society.” The programme’s work is still on-going towards a final report planned for 2013. The idea of a transition towards a “post-carbon” society embraces four main objectives: the reduction of greenhouse gases by 2050 to one quarter of their 1990 levels, virtual autonomy in respect of carbon-based energies (oil, gas and coal), an adequate capacity for adaptation to climate change and, lastly, greater attention to situations of energy precariousness.

As part of the dossier Futuribles is devoting, this month, to this programme, Cyria Emelianoff and Elsa Mor show, in this article, how certain cities have gradually taken this subject on board, developing –often thanks to civil society initiatives and the emergence of networks of pioneering cities at the European level– highly ambitious strategies of transition towards less carbon energy consumption and lower greenhouse gas emissions. Here they outline two concrete cases of cities that are highly active in this field, Hanover and Bristol, showing their aims, the strategies deployed, the levers used and the results obtained. They particularly stress the importance played in these two transitions by the economic and environmental departments coming together on the question, and also by the development of “multi-partner” approaches. They are, nevertheless, critical of the difficulties in establishing proper “multi-scale climate governance” involving –above and beyond these pioneering cities– the regional, national, European and international levels, with a view to a more large-scale post-carbon transition.



Qatar between Dynamism and Ambition: Socio-economic Prospects to 2030

Though it is a very small country in the Arab peninsula (just over half the size of Wales), the Emirate of Qatar nonetheless occupies an increasingly important economic and diplomatic position globally. Awareness of the country has grown in recent years with a Qatari presence developing –and being consolidated– in the sporting sector (football clubs, TV channels etc.), but most importantly Qatar is also one of the leading global producers of natural gas, behind Russia and Iran. It also ranks number one in terms of per capita GDP (at parity of purchasing power).

In this article, Perla Srour-Gandon lists the country’s main assets –particularly its energy assets– and also outlines the Qatari authorities’ strategy for maintaining this economic prosperity, even into a world without hydrocarbons. She specifies, among other things, the “2030 Vision” they have developed in the educational, socio-economic and environmental fields, as well as in the areas of sport, tourism and culture, to guarantee a sustainable future for Qataris. It is as yet unknown whether this economic diversification strategy will bear fruit, but it is evidence of a degree of clear-sightedness on the part of the emirate, which is aware that its income stream from gas will not last forever and is using its current position of strength to make longer-term investments.


Entreprises, travail

Sun Tzu, Strategist of the Twenty-First Century. On Pierre Fayard, Sun Tzu. Stratégie et séduction

In The Art of War, written in the fifth century BC, Sun Tzu offers “attitudes and mental models that are much better adapted to the realities of our world than the dominant Western thinking”, argues André-Yves Portnoff. The 13 chapters of this Chinese treatise on strategy, here translated into French with a commentary and examples by Pierre Fayard, teem with precepts and advice which “today’s decision-makers” can apply in their professional environments. André-Yves Portnoff stresses their relevance and points out, among other things, “the backwardness of current analysts and actors, the great majority of whom (unlike Sun Tzu) have failed to comprehend that what is of crucial importance is understanding things and people”.

Analyse prospective

Entreprises, travail

Comment changer de modèle économique ? Le cas de la VPC

La majorité des entreprises est concernée par ce qui arrive à la vente par correspondance (VPC) confrontée, sous la pression d’Internet, à une double question. Comment changer de modèle économique lors d’une mutation technologique ? Mais également comment gérer la période qui peut être longue où l’on est amené à fonctionner selon deux modèles, le nouveau, innovant, mais aussi l’ancien qui assure encore la majeure partie du chiffre d’affaires, en raison des habitudes d’une partie ...

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Bibliographie prospective « France 2025 »

Futuribles consacre ce numéro spécial de la Bibliographie prospective aux huit rapports issus de l'exercice de prospective "France 2025", lancé en 2008 à l'initiative du Premier ministre français, François Fillon, sous la direction d'Eric Besson. Cet exercice visait à établir un diagnostic stratégique pour la France à l'horizon 2025, en utilisant la méthode des scénarios. Les huit rubriques habituelles de la Bibliographie prospective sont donc ici chacune dédiées à l'une des huit thématiques considérées comme ...

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Bibliographie prospective n°67

La Bibliographie prospective du mois de janvier 2009 consacre son Focus au quatrième rapport de prospective du National Intelligence Council (NIC), intitulé Global trends 2025. A transformed World. Ce prestigieux rapport met en scène les tendances globales identifiées au travers de quatre scénarios qui, cette année, accordent une importance nouvelle aux questions des ressources stratégiques et du changement climatique. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de comptes rendus de livres, études et rapports à dimension prospective ...

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Entreprises, travail

Le troisième aéroport parisien : démocratie ou démagogie ?

The question of whether or not to build a third airport in the Paris region keeps cropping up. Consequently, for the last 25 years, numerous studies have concluded, in essence, that there was no need for this project to start immediately but that it would nevertheless be wise to earmark a site that could ultimately replace the existing airport at Orly.
The question was therefore raised as to which site to choose, and this gave rise to a public debate that Michel Godet summarizes here, stressing both the usefulness of a preliminary public discussion before decisions of this kind are made and the ill-effects when the debate is poorly conducted.
He argues that the "great debate" launched in 2001 with the DUCSAI commission (Démarche utilité concertée pour un site aéroportuaire international) to achieve agreement on a site for the new international airport was curtailed, partly because it was launched without the protagonists having a real knowledge of the parameters of the problem. Godet stresses how important it is for public decisions involving the future to be the subject of public debate - public participation being in any case a prerequisite for involvement in the project - and criticizes strongly the democratic pseudo-debates that he considers are worse than anything.
The article is an extract from the book 2006 et après... Le choc démographique (2006 and After... The Demographic Shock) to be published by Odile Jacob (Paris) in January 2003. We have also quoted the plea that Michel Godet makes for the French strategic planning agency, the "Commissariat général du Plan", to be turned into the "Commissariat à la prospective", a timely suggestion just when the keen commitment to planning might give way to a keen commitment to anticipation in the service of strategy.


Entreprises, travail

L’Âge du verre

Ce beau petit livre publié dans une collection qui se distingue par sa concision, sa bonne documentation et la qualité de son illustration, n'est pas un livre de recherche ou de prospective, mais sa lecture rassemble de nombreuses données qui aident à mettre en perspective des concepts importants. Il tord le cou sans le dire aux expressions stupides et trompeuses de matériaux nouveaux ou de techniques nouvelles qui devraient être remplacées par progrès des matériaux, progrès techniques. Nouveau, le ...

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Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique

La France est-elle encore une grande puissance ?

« La France est-elle encore une grande puissance ? » Telle est une préoccupation majeure de bon nombre de décideurs et de citoyens français. Avant de répondre à cette question, Pascal Boniface (notamment directeur de l'Institut des relations internationales et stratégiques) s'efforce de définir ce qu'est une grande puissance dans le système international actuel. Puis il replace la France dans ce contexte et analyse les relations qu'elle entretient avec, d'une part, les États-Unis et, d'autre part, les ...

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Entreprises, travail - Territoires, réseaux

Bogota 2000 : un espacio para cogestionar la transformacion de la capital (Bogota 2000 : un espace pour la co-gestion de la transformation de la capitale)

La planification stratégique, utilisée jusqu'à aujourd'hui par les entreprises privées pour faire face à des marchés toujours plus compétitifs, commence à être appliquée aux grands conglomérats urbains. La Planification stratégique urbaine (PSU) s'efforce de rendre compatible la logique des marchés et les besoins des citoyens pour assurer un futur viable à la ville. La PSU propose ainsi aux collectivités locales de déterminer des priorités sur lesquelles concentrer leurs efforts, sélectionner les domaines dans lesquels l'intervention de ...

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Entreprises, travail - Société, modes de vie

La co-opétition. Une révolution dans la manière de jouer concurrence et coopération

Selon la vision traditionnelle, les objectifs d'une entreprise sont les suivants : conquérir des parts de marché, battre ses concurrents et dicter ses conditions aux fournisseurs. Mais, selon les auteurs, cette vision est incomplète car la plupart des entreprises ne réussissent que si d'autres font de même. Plus précisément, les entreprises ne doivent pas hésiter à coopérer au moment de la création du marché et à se concurrencer pour le partage des gains. En s'appuyant sur la théorie ...

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Entreprises, travail - Institutions

L’Union européenne et l’avenir de ses institutions

Jean-Victor Louis, professeur de droit communautaire institutionnel, dresse dans cet ouvrage un bilan de ses réflexions après des débats tant au Parlement européen qu'au sein des administrations nationales belges et dans les structures de recherche universitaires. Il analyse ici les défis auxquels l'Union européenne doit faire face et les enjeux de la Conférence intergouvernementale : faire en sorte que l'Union européenne ne se dilue pas sous le poids du nombre et de la diversité, renforcer les conditions du ...

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