Retraite

Bibliography

Institutions

Un essai de prospective sur les retraites en France à l’horizon 2040

Dans ce TRP est développée l'étude présenté dans le n° 268 de la revue Futuribles et réalisée par la SARL Futuribles à l'aide de la méthode des scénarios. Cette étude s'efforce d'examiner quelles pourraient être les conséquences du vieillissement démographique en France eu égard à différentes hypothèses d'évolution du contexte socio-économique général, non des hypothèses plus ou moins contrastées sur l'évolution de la croissance économique, comme dans d'autres travaux, mais des hypothèses portant ...

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Editorial

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Le mythe du plein emploi

Nous voici, en ce début de l'année 2001, à nouveau confrontés en France à deux enjeux qui, paradoxalement, demeurent traités de manière distincte : celui des perspectives d'emploi et celui de l'avenir des retraites.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Retraites : la confusion organisée. Le débat sur l’avenir des retraites en France

As the baby boom generations prepare to retire from work, the problem of the future of pensions is looming with increasing urgency. The topic has often been discussed in the pages of Futuribles, with regard to France and the other industrialized countries. The crunch time is now near in France, and many reports have been devoted to the subject over the last two decades, in increasing quantities in recent years.
Following the report of the Commissioner of the Plan on "The Future of our Pensions" and the study by the Economic and Social Council on "The Social and Demographic Outlook to 2020-2040", which we have already reviewed, a study has recently been published by a former Minister of Social Affairs, René Teulade, which has enabled the present French Prime Minister to put an end to the procrastination of many previous governments, all of whom recoiled at the challenge offered by the indispensable and unavoidable need to reform the French pension system.
Alain Parant reviews here the analysis of the future of pensions made in the "Teulade Report" and its main recommendations. He shows that, while all those who write about the subject agree on the scale of the problem, René Teulade is unusual in displaying great optimism about the outlook for economic and job growth - this optimism allows him to discount any risk of major crisis, on condition that some small adjustments are made.
Alain Parant sets out to demonstrate why he finds such optimism "irresponsible", stressing in particular the poor performance of France with regard to employment and therefore the doubts that raises about the desirability of extending the number of years that have to be worked in order to qualify for a pension. Lastly, he criticizes the absence of a real willingness to undertake reforms and emphasizes the consequent dangers.

Revue

Institutions

La réforme des systèmes de retraite en Italie. Les enseignements d’une expérience originale

Italy was one of the first European countries to encounter the problems of an ageing population. The issue of the future funding of retirement pensions came to the fore there in the 1970s, and was made all the more difficult by the fact that the existing system was a patchwork of specific rules, often strongly influenced by particular interest groups.
Since then, as Stéphanie Toutain demonstrates, various governments have tackled the problem and have tried to implement reforms that would create a single pensions system and would cope with the difficulties of future funding resulting from an ageing population. Most of the reforms came to grief through partisan quarrels and opposition from trade unions and interest groups. It was not until 1992 that the Amato and Dini governments were able to secure widespread public support for a fundamental reform of the system.
The reform consisted of gradually raising the retirement age combined with lengthening the reference period on which pensions are calculated, as well as changes in the method of calculation. The measures also aim ultimately to institute a uniform set of rules for all the different categories of workers. A transition period was designed to allow the reforms to take place gradually.
Admittedly, the reform has not solved all the problems of funding but, as Stéphanie Toutain stresses, it is the way that Amato and Dini managed to get it ratified that is worth examining. It was by involving the social partners in the original plans, by co-operating closely with them as the plans took shape, and by soliciting the views of all concerned (employed, unemployed and retired people) via a referendum that the Italian government made the reform palatable. An example to follow?

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Social Security Pensions : Development and Reform

Les futurs retraités sont-ils voués à l'indigence ? Selon cette étude du Bureau international du travail, 90 % de la population mondiale en âge de travailler ne sont pas couverts par des régimes de retraite qui peuvent leur garantir un revenu suffisant. Les auteurs de cet ouvrage pointent le doigt sur la mauvaise gestion de bon nombre des régimes en vigueur qui, selon eux, expose une grande partie de la population mondiale à la pauvreté durant la vieillesse. Même lorsque la ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Population

Les transferts entre générations. L’État, le marché et les familles

The authors examine the relations between generations and argue, in essence, that the transfers between younger and older groups, both public and private, that are increasingly discussed quite appropriately in the context of how pensions are to be financed in future, cannot be properly understood without taking into account family relationships and structures.
They show that the debate on the future of pensions often focuses too narrowly on two players : the market and the state (and on two systems : redistribution and capitalization). They emphasize the need to consider financial flows within the family group, which can differ enormously depending upon the family's resources, the numbers and preferences of each generation.
After discussing the key arguments put forward in support of capitalization and of redistribution, they stress the crucial role of the family and how this role can change as the number of generations rises and resources are increasingly switched within and between generations. The authors illustrate their thesis with data available for France, but it is clearly also applicable to any country with an ageing population.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

L’avenir des retraites en Europe

The future of pensions, mainly based on the principle of redistribution, provokes legitimate concern in European countries, due not only to the aging of the population but also to the evolving socio-economic context. While we may be unable to predict how the latter will evolve in the next decades, some trends are worrisome : globalization of the economy, for example, and its corollary of international competitiveness, forces entreprises, to be more cost-competitive and to minimize their contributions to social programs, including the unemployment problem.
In such a context, it is not difficult for some to raise the spectre of failure of the redistributive pension system and the spectre of intergenerational warfare, while others promote the merits of capitalization. To set capitalization and pay-as-you-go in opposition is nevertheless a false debate, according to Giovanni Tamburi. These two techniques of financing are more complementary than opposing. In fact, many European countries have made highly opportune reforms and are evolving toward a mixed system.
The author describes these reforms and shows how elements of capitalization can be introduced into the systems of pay-as-you-go (investing part of the contributions into saving funds) and concludes by describing the costs and modalities of financing pensions. He stresses that pay-as-you-go systems jeopardize job creation.

Revue

Institutions - Population - Santé

Vieillissement démographique et protection sociale

This article summarizes the main conclusions of the study on "Demographic Aging in European Union to 2050", published by the European Commission.
The authors first clarify the amplitude and time frame of demographic aging in seven European countries (Germany, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, United Kingdom, Sweden) and in the European Union as a whole. To this end they use two indicators: the proportion of elderly in the population, and the differential rate of aging among neighboring countries.
Then they show the impact of aging alone (other factors remaining equal) on the financing of health care and pension systems. They demonstrate, for example, that if aging corresponds to the central scenario of Eurostat, financial equilibrium in the health care system could only be maintained by increasing the rate of contributions by half or by reducing the benefit by a third.
By the identical reasoning process, Gérard Calot and Jean-Paul Sardon show how impacts on the pension system might be accommodated: increasing the rate of contributions, decreasing the purchasing power of pensions relative to the net salaries of the work force, increasing the number of contributory years to qualify for a full pension, or by increasing the numbers of active contributors through higher rates of participation in the labor market or an increase in immigration.

Revue

Institutions - Population

L’avenir des retraites aux États-Unis

The United States, like European countries, faces a rapid aging of its population, particularly after 2010 when the baby boomers (1946-1964) reach the age of 65. The aging process will be all the more pronounced because of increase life expectancy.
As in Europe, this phenomenon has aroused concerns for the future of pensions. Basic U.S. pensions (Federal Old Age Pension, Federal Social Assistance for the Disabled, and Welfare for Elderly Indigents - Social Security Insurance), are based upon the principle of redistribution. These are supplemented, for a more restricted number of individuals, by company pensions and by individual retirement saving plans.
Following a re-examination of demographic trends in the United States, Daniel Béland, describes the organization of its pension system and the impact that the foreseeable aging could have. Finally, he reviews the reforms contemplated as a consequence and the polemics employed by the proponents and the adversaries of redistribution.

Revue

Institutions

Les retraites à l’horizon 2040. Les projections financières des régimes français de retraite, une note de synthèse

At the request of the French Prime minister, the Commissaire au Plan appointed a Task Force to diagnose the situation and prospects of the French retirement system (basic retirement and complementary retirement).
Within its mandate, the Commissaire au Plan had asked each pension plan to make projections to 2040 of the dependancy ratios (contributors, receivers) and the prospects for resources and expenditures, given a common framework of demographic and macro-economic hypotheses.
Charles du Granrut, using these projections, has made a synthesis which complements the recent publication of the Task Force and which should contribute to the public debate that is now required.

Revue

Institutions

Retraites : à quand la fin des annuités ?

France, like the other industrialized countries, confronts a rapid aging of its population and a consequent danger to the stability of its retirement system, given the principle of equalization between basic and complementary plans. The French Prime Minister asked the Commissaire au plan to explore the challenge and the possible avenues for addressing it. One of the main recommendations, in line with the Reform of 1993, is the extension of working life. This would obviously avoid an excessive degradation of the ratio between the years of contributions and those of receiving benefits.
Jacques Bichot offers a contrast between two systems: the one based on annual payment systems found in basic retirement plans, and the systems of bridging offered by complementary plans. He shows that the former, being excessively complex, rigid and unfair, should be replaced by a point system which, everything considered, is more equitable, transparent and easier to manage.
He bases his thesis on the fact that the return on contributions is unequal among ranks and that those who have been unable to have a complete career (such as women, immigrants and occasional workers) are penalized. This, he shows, has been built into a deeply opaque system of injustice and of unfair bureaucratic practices which is overruling the fundamental principles of a contributory logic.
Jacques Bichot makes a plea for a reform - towards a point system -which will eradicate the injustices of the present system, make it more adaptable to new needs and more manageable. He shows, finally, how to implement a transition between the two systems by borrowing some useful principles recently adopted by the Association générale de retraites des cadres and l'Association des régimes de retraites complémentaires (Associations of retired managers and of complementary retirements systems).

Bibliography

Institutions - Population

Seniors : l’explosion

Ce livre riche, vivant et synthétique fait le tour de ce que sont et seront, en particulier en France, les nouveaux « vieux » (qui préfèrent naturellement s'entendre appeler « seniors » ou « retraités »), de ce qu'ils font, et des enjeux majeurs qu'ils soulèvent en tant que groupe démographique appelé à dominer (sinon positivement, du moins négativement) le XXIe siècle. Dans la confusion qui accompagne aujourd'hui les propos de tous bords tenus sur l'avenir et, le cas échéant, la ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Retraites en péril

Publié dans une collection dont l'ambition est d'éclairer les débats publics jugés trop simplistes ou bien inutilement confus, cet opuscule est un condensé des écrits de Jacques Bichot sur la question des retraites. Il s'adresse, en priorité, aux non-lecteurs de « Quelles retraites en l'an 2000 ? », son précédent livre paru en 1993. Remettant l'ouvrage sur le métier, l'auteur y dénonce à nouveau l'organisation des retraites, qui n'a rien de sociale, et le refus ...

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Bibliography

Institutions

Vers une prospective des retraites en France à l’horizon 2030

Même si l'ampleur et le calendrier du phénomène diffèrent d'un pays à l'autre, la France comme tous les pays industrialisés se trouve confrontée à un vieillissement démographique qui sera particulièrement rapide à partir des années 2005-2010. Ce vieillissement risque d'entraîner, à système économique et social inchangé, une forte augmentation de la charge des retraites et des dépenses de santé qui, surtout dans les pays où les systèmes de protection sociale reposent principalement sur la répartition, pourraient ...

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Bibliography

Institutions

Le Financement des systèmes de retraite spéciaux. Une approche internationale

Cet ouvrage résulte d'une étude conduite dans le cadre du club « Entreprises et prospective » commanditée par La Poste, France Télécom, la SNCF et EDF. Il est consacré aux systèmes de retraite des entreprises de service public en Europe, systèmes de régimes dits spéciaux dont la connaissance est encore plus lacunaire que celle portant sur le régime général des salariés. La première partie s'intéresse tout particulièrement au cas français : elle décrit les problèmes posés par l'évolution naturelle des ...

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Bibliography

Institutions - Population

La Dynamique de la retraite : une menace pour l’Europe

La combinaison de l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie, de plus en plus rapide depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale, et de la forte baisse de la natalité, qui a commencé selon les pays du milieu des années 60 à celui des années 70, a amorcé un vieillissement rapide de la population des vieux pays industriels. Et même les pays industriels réputés plus jeunes, notamment les dragons asiatiques, sont entrés dans la spirale. Demain ce sera le tour de la ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Institutions

La Banque mondiale et les retraites. Une synthèse de l’approche néolibérale

La Banque mondiale a publié en octobre 1994 un rapport sur La crise du vieillissement 2 qui a été largement diffusé depuis. Elle y propose une approche complètement renouvelée des retraites et la mise en place d ' u n nouveau système de couverture de la vieillesse q u ' elle qualifie de « système à trois piliers ». La démarche générale qu'elle adopte se déroule en trois temps : le constat d'une crise imminente, l'appréhension des dispositifs de retraite à partir ...

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Revue

Institutions - Population

Longévité et retraite en France

Longevity and Retirement in France
Life expectancy in France has increased by 35 years over the last century. This spectacular increase is due to reduced mortality at all ages but is more accentuated at the two extremes of life where it used to be especially high. First infant mortality has bottomed out, and more recently the average death age keeps rising.
This second phenomenon explains why life expectancy at 60-years-old increases faster than life expectancy at birth. The number of persons reaching 60 is going to rise more rapidly and as they live longer the proportion of sixty-years-old-plus will rapidly increase, especially in relation to the number of adults between the ages of 20 and 59.
To prevent the weight of retirees from falling too heavily on the active population, the duration of retirement relative to working life could be shortened. The reform proposed in 1993, to increase progressively the period of contribution required in order to receive a full pension, was a step in this direction.
But even if labor market conditions did not make it so difficult to extend the length of working life, this measure would be insufficient. We must therefore explore some other pathways of reform which will inevitably run into the eternal issue of acquired rights.

Bibliography

Géopolitique - Institutions

Gradual Retirement in the OECD Countries. Macro and Micro Issues and Policies

Quelle doit être la ligne directrice des prochaines politiques de l'emploi en ce qui concerne les travailleurs âgés dans les pays de l'OCDE (Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques) ? Cet ouvrage tente de répondre à cette question en procédant à une analyse comparative des témoignages d'expériences vécues dans certains pays de l'Union européenne (Suède, France, Allemagne, Royaume-Uni, Pays-Bas), mais également au Japon et aux États-Unis. Jusqu'à très récemment, l'absence de mise en retraite ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Retraites et fonds de pension : l’état de la question en France et à l’étranger

La baisse des taux de remplacement étant inéluctable en France, la question des compléments de retraite se pose mécaniquement. Les références étrangères en la matière sont de peu de secours. De nombreux pays ont mis en place des fonds de pension, mais dans des contextes sociaux et culturels très différents. Les régimes de base de ces pays sont peu protecteurs. Plusieurs facteurs se cumulent aujourd'hui pour rendre les fonds de pension moins avantageux pour l'employeur. Ainsi, aux États-Unis ...

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Bibliography

Institutions

« La retraite en Allemagne »

À l'heure ou l'on reparle du « modèle allemand » en matière de protection sociale et de négociation, force est de constater la similitude entre la France et l'Allemagne en matière de retraite, dans sa politique générale et jusque dans ses réformes. Ce numéro 12 de Retraite et société présente un panorama de l'assurance vieillesse allemande et des enjeux auxquels elle est confrontée. L'Allemagne, confrontée à des défis démographiques, économiques et financiers se trouve de fait dans ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

État-providence : arguments pour une réforme

Les textes réunis dans cet ouvrage, parus initialement dans Le Débat, veulent contribuer à la réflexion sur la réforme de l'État-providence. Ils sont articulés autour de cinq temps forts, et témoignent de la nécessité, de l'urgence et de l'ampleur des révisions à opérer. Dans un premier temps, Jean-Marie Poussin examine les contraintes démographiques : il montre que les dysfonctionnements du système de redistribution tiennent à l'altération du contrat entre générations, elle-même causée par les tendances lourdes de ...

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