Prévision (étude de cas)

Bibliography

Territoires, réseaux

Étude prospective des aéroports de la région PACA aux horizons 2030 et 2050

Analyse prospective des évolutions du transport aérien et des incidences sur le système aéroportuaire de la région PACA. Constructions et évaluation de scénarios de développement des capacités aéroportuaires en région.

Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities. Scenarios to 2050

Après un rappel des derniers scénarios énergétiques de long terme élaborés par Shell en 1995, on trouve une description des principaux facteurs (état des ressources, technologies et choix de société) qui vont former le futur contexte socio-économique de l'énergie. État des ressources Les réserves de charbon ne semblent pas près d'être épuisées à l'horizon 2050, même si elles sont concentrées dans un petit nombre de pays et deviendront de plus en plus distantes des marchés. La pénurie ...

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Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Prospective générationnelle des comportements des voyageurs internationaux d’ici 2020 en Allemagne en France et au Royaume-Uni

Réalisation d'une analyse prospective des clientèles internationales touristiques en provenance d'Allemagne, de France et du Royaume Uni à partir d'une démarche générationnelle à l'horizon 2020

Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Les Perspectives de l’environnement de l’OCDE

L'originalité de ces perspectives de l'environnement de l'OCDE par rapport aux travaux analogues (par exemple ceux du PNUE) est qu'elles ont pour objectif de présenter l'évolution probable de l'environnement dans le monde à l'horizon 2020 dans une optique économique. En effet, prenant conscience que les principaux facteurs de modification de l'environnement sont d'ordre économique (croissance, libéralisation des échanges et des investissements), social (changements démographiques, évolution de la population active et modes ...

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Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Climate Change 2001. Vol. I. The Scientific Basis

Ce troisième rapport de l'IPCC actualise le deuxième rapport datant de 1996, confirmant que les premières projections concernant le réchauffement du climat ont été sous-estimées. Les dernières recherches arrivent à la conclusion que les températures pourraient gagner jusqu'à 5,8 °C d'ici 2100. L'IPCC conclut également que cette hausse n'a pas eu de précédent dans les mille ans écoulés et que l'activité humaine en est responsable.

Bibliography

Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Tourism 2020 Vision - Americas

This newly released report: Tourism 2020 Vision - Americas continues WTO's programme in the field of forecast studies. This regional volume on Americas is divided into three parts. Part one examines the development of tourism in Americas in the first half of the 1990s, analyzing especially the key factors which determined American prospects. The second part deals with the various determinants governing the forecast to the year 2020, while the third part presents the forecasts themselves taking as well into ...

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Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

World Energy Outlook 2001. Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth

Après la grande panne d'électricité survenue en Californie en 2000, les experts en énergie auguraient hardiment que les bénéfices de l'industrie solaire doubleraient à l'horizon 2005. Or, la dernière parution de World Energy Outlook prévoit pour les énergies alternatives une part relativement faible dans la panoplie énergétique mondiale des deux décennies à venir. L'hydraulique est la source d'électricité d'origine renouvelable de loin la plus importante dans les pays de l'OCDE : en 1999, il ...

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Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Prix du pétrole

La volatilité des prix du pétrole en général et les hausses récentes des cours du brut relancent les interrogations sur le fonctionnement du marché pétrolier, sur l'épuisement annoncé des réserves d'or noir et sur les solutions de rechange. Un pétrole à 35 $/b inquiète alors que la locomotive économique américaine donne des signes de ralentissement, que la Californie - pays emblématique de la high tech - connaît pour la première fois une pénurie de carburants et d'électricité et que ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi

États-Unis : l’emploi à l’horizon 2008

At the end of 1999 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS, responsible for US employment statistics) published a series of projections for employment in the United States between now and 2008. Charles du Granrut presents some of the main findings here, showing that, even if the rate of growth slows down, the present situation of virtually full employment is likely to continue.
According to the BLS, the American economy has been "tertiarized" and the trends noted since 1976 will probably be maintained in the coming decade. However, as Charles du Granrut stresses, "the image of an American economy based largely on services is too simplistic": for one thing, the growth of many services is closely linked to manufacturing; for another, the growth of services is strongly tied to demand and the arrangements made to satisfy that demand.
Lastly, the nature of employment in the United States is also changing: the level of skills and qualifications required are in general rising, which does nothing to reduce inequalities (according to the BLS, the highest rates of growth are in the best-paid but also in the less well-paid jobs).

Revue

Population

Le salut par l’immigration ?

Some people think that bringing in foreign workers would be a way of overcoming the threatened shortage of skilled labour; for others, it would remedy the effects of an ageing population and the widening gap between those of working age and those in retirement.
The Population Division of the United Nations has in fact just produced a range of scenarios intended to shed light on how many immigrants would be needed by eight countries in order to maintain in the long term (to 2050) either their current numbers in work, or their economically active population, or else to stabilize the relationship between active and retired people (aged 65 and over).
Alain Parant reviews the results if these forecasts, which show, for example, that between now and 2050, France might need to bring in between 5.4 million and 93.7 million immigrants, while South Korea would need between 6.4 million and 5.1 billion immigrants! He argues that there is likely to be fierce competition to attract these immigrants... Above all, however, resorting to immigration - no matter how desirable this may be - cannot be a panacea for a shortage of labour, and even less a means of compensating for an ageing population.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Retraites : la confusion organisée. Le débat sur l’avenir des retraites en France

As the baby boom generations prepare to retire from work, the problem of the future of pensions is looming with increasing urgency. The topic has often been discussed in the pages of Futuribles, with regard to France and the other industrialized countries. The crunch time is now near in France, and many reports have been devoted to the subject over the last two decades, in increasing quantities in recent years.
Following the report of the Commissioner of the Plan on "The Future of our Pensions" and the study by the Economic and Social Council on "The Social and Demographic Outlook to 2020-2040", which we have already reviewed, a study has recently been published by a former Minister of Social Affairs, René Teulade, which has enabled the present French Prime Minister to put an end to the procrastination of many previous governments, all of whom recoiled at the challenge offered by the indispensable and unavoidable need to reform the French pension system.
Alain Parant reviews here the analysis of the future of pensions made in the "Teulade Report" and its main recommendations. He shows that, while all those who write about the subject agree on the scale of the problem, René Teulade is unusual in displaying great optimism about the outlook for economic and job growth - this optimism allows him to discount any risk of major crisis, on condition that some small adjustments are made.
Alain Parant sets out to demonstrate why he finds such optimism "irresponsible", stressing in particular the poor performance of France with regard to employment and therefore the doubts that raises about the desirability of extending the number of years that have to be worked in order to qualify for a pension. Lastly, he criticizes the absence of a real willingness to undertake reforms and emphasizes the consequent dangers.

Revue

Population

L’impact du vieillissement démographique en France à l’horizon 2020-2040. Une note de synthèse fondée sur le rapport du Conseil économique et social

The French Economic and Social Council has just produced a report, overseen by Chantal Lebatard, on "The social and demographic outlook for France to 2020-2040" which marks a great step forward in its analysis of the social and economic issues that may arise in the medium and long term as the result of an ageing population. The report is remarkable because:
- the study is based on far more daring population forecasts than those normally used by INSEE (the National Statistical Office); they are probably closer to the real range of possible futures;
- the simulation is based on a neo-classical growth model that makes it possible to test quite a wide range of hypotheses;
- the exercise is not confined to examining the future of pensions but looks more generally at the impact on the social security system as a whole.
In his summary of the report, Charles du Granrut first reviews the hypotheses and the results of population projections, which confirm the inexorable increase in the population aged 60 and over. He then goes on to explore the hypotheses and main results of the economic simulations, especially for GDP and employment. Finally, having described the chosen hypotheses, he outlines some of the potential social and economic impacts of ageing on the social protection system (health, pensions, family support...).
This exercise is a useful addition to the studies conducted so far, which mostly concentrate on pensions. It highlights the obvious - a high level of growth would make the adjustments easier - but also stresses that the scope of problems nevertheless remains daunting.

Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

Feeding the World : A Challenge for the 21st Century

L'originalité de cet ouvrage, par rapport à tous ceux qui sont publiés sur la question « la Terre peut-elle nourrir six milliards d'homme (voire plus) », est qu'il s'intéresse à l'ensemble de la chaîne alimentaire, de la bactérie aux régimes idéaux. L'auteur reprend le principe d'efficience, emprunté à la question énergétique, pour évaluer comment on pourrait tirer meilleur parti des ressources alimentaires existantes : « tirer parti des contraintes de l'environnement et rechercher une plus grande ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi

Slovenia and the European Union : Macroeconomic Development Scenarios

Le développement économique futur de la Slovénie est ici imaginé sous la forme de deux scénarios : celui de l'entrée dans l'Union européenne en 2005, et un autre supposant que celle-ci n'aura pas lieu avant 2010. Si cette intégration n'intervient pas, la croissance du PIB (produit intérieur brut) flottera entre 3 et 4 %, alors que dans le scénario d'adhésion elle atteint 5-6 %. Dans les deux scénarios, une réorientation des échanges commerciaux en direction des régions yougoslaves ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Territoires, réseaux

America and the World, 1898-2025 : Achievements, Failures, Alternative Futures

Cet ouvrage offre une bonne rétrospective de l'histoire des États-Unis, insistant, comme le titre l'indique, sur ses forces et ses faiblesses, ses succès et ses erreurs au cours du XXe siècle. Puis, une fois le passé retracé et décrypté, l'auteur nous propose six scénarios possibles pour les États-Unis à l'horizon 2025. Le premier, « Stabilité unipolaire », est une extrapolation de la situation présente : les États-Unis, superpuissance incontestée, n'abusent pas de leur pouvoir tandis que, de son ...

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Revue

Institutions - Population - Santé

La dynamique des dépenses de santé. France : l’impact du vieillissement sur les dépenses de santé à l’horizon 2020

Bui Dang Ha Doan discusses the fact that spending on health is rising faster than the gross domestic product (GDP) in all industrialised countries. This phenomenon has caused considerable concern for some time and has already given rise to many plans for reform which have been implemented to varying degrees and with varying success.
Since the rise is generally the result of increases in both supply and demand (which are, therefore, obviously, mutually reinforcing), French authorities have tried to limit France's number of doctors in hope that this would bring about a fall in the quantity of medicines prescribed as well as medical facilities. This measure was expected to lead to a reduction in health spending between now and 2005, if not before.
The author shows, however, that the ageing of the population alone, and in particular the extremely rapid growth in the numbers of very old people, will automatically lead to a steep rise in health expenditures. This will occur because of the age factor (the health costs of a grandmother are five-times higher than those of her granddaughter) and also the generational factor (tomorrow's grandmothers will have higher expectations of care than those of previous generations).
In short, the author argues that any let-up in the growth of health spending as a result of rationing supply in the next ten years can only be temporary, and furthermore, this will be the case, no matter how the health system is organized.

Revue

Population

Les futurs de la mortalité

Over the past fifty years, life expectancy in France has risen considerably : men lived eleven years longer on average, by 1996, and women thirteen years. Life expectancy at birth is now 74.6 years for males and 82 years for females. While this progress was mostly due to decreased infant mortality, since 1970 the improvement is due to lower mortality for those of 60 years and over. "As age increases", notes Jean-Paul Sardon, "the stronger is the relative gain in longevity". In other words, more and more people will reach 60 years, and they will live longer and longer.
This dramatic progress has taken place, at different rhythms, in all Western countries. All show distinct differences between genders (and among socioprofessional categories). Two obvious questions come to mind : one about the quality of extended life (with or without incapacity), the other about the continuation of the trend itself.
Jean-Paul Sardon provides us with updated synthesis on controversies incident to the issue. In particular, there are two opposing schools of thought on the future of mortality. For one of them, life expectancy will eventually plateau around 85 years of age; for the other, it can be extended up to 120 years, thanks to better conditions of living and progress in medicine. The second forecast proves to be accurate, aging will be a far more serious problem than the most pessimistic of current scenarios : the proportion of elderly in the population would skyrocket from about 30% to 70%!

Revue

Institutions - Population - Santé

Vieillissement démographique et protection sociale

This article summarizes the main conclusions of the study on "Demographic Aging in European Union to 2050", published by the European Commission.
The authors first clarify the amplitude and time frame of demographic aging in seven European countries (Germany, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, United Kingdom, Sweden) and in the European Union as a whole. To this end they use two indicators: the proportion of elderly in the population, and the differential rate of aging among neighboring countries.
Then they show the impact of aging alone (other factors remaining equal) on the financing of health care and pension systems. They demonstrate, for example, that if aging corresponds to the central scenario of Eurostat, financial equilibrium in the health care system could only be maintained by increasing the rate of contributions by half or by reducing the benefit by a third.
By the identical reasoning process, Gérard Calot and Jean-Paul Sardon show how impacts on the pension system might be accommodated: increasing the rate of contributions, decreasing the purchasing power of pensions relative to the net salaries of the work force, increasing the number of contributory years to qualify for a full pension, or by increasing the numbers of active contributors through higher rates of participation in the labor market or an increase in immigration.

Revue

Géopolitique - Population

Les perspectives démographiques européennes. Une synthèse des projections démographiques à l’horizon 2050 pour les pays de l’Union européenne

This article exposes briefly (and without discussion) the most recent demographic projections drawn for the countries of the European Union for the year 2050, published by the Netherland's Bureau of Statistics for the Statistical Office of the European Communities (Eurostat).
The authors remind us first of the hypotheses - limited to three in each case which have been chosen for each of the given variables: fecundity, mortality and net immigration. They then present the five extreme scenarios implied by all possible combinations of the selected hypotheses and therefore all possible paths of demographic evolution.
While most of the time we only use the median of demographic projections (leading us to suppose that it is the most probable), this synthesis has the merit of showing the complete spectrum of possible futures. It suggests the amplitude of uncertainty concerning the populations of member countries, for although aging is general and irreversible for all of them, the intensity and the schedule of the problem is not identical among countries.

Revue

Institutions

Les retraites à l’horizon 2040. Les projections financières des régimes français de retraite, une note de synthèse

At the request of the French Prime minister, the Commissaire au Plan appointed a Task Force to diagnose the situation and prospects of the French retirement system (basic retirement and complementary retirement).
Within its mandate, the Commissaire au Plan had asked each pension plan to make projections to 2040 of the dependancy ratios (contributors, receivers) and the prospects for resources and expenditures, given a common framework of demographic and macro-economic hypotheses.
Charles du Granrut, using these projections, has made a synthesis which complements the recent publication of the Task Force and which should contribute to the public debate that is now required.

Bibliography

Société, modes de vie

Livestock to 2020 - The Next Food Revolution

Vision 2020 sur l'alimentation, l'agriculture et l'environnement est une initiative de l'Institut international de recherches sur les politiques alimentaires visant à développer une vision partagée et un consensus sur les actions à mener pour satisfaire les besoins alimentaires futurs de la planète tout en allégeant la pauvreté et en protégeant l'environnement. Ce document de synthèse aborde les questions de l'offre et de la demande de produits alimentaires d'origine animale et résume les projections ...

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