Indicateurs

Note de veille

Entreprises, travail - Société, modes de vie

La conscience humaine au service des générations futures

Consultante en stratégie de transformation des entreprises, Virginie Rio-Jeanne a récemment proposé, dans la Harvard Business Review France, la mise en place d’un nouvel indicateur destiné à compléter le quotient intellectuel (QI) et le quotient émotionnel (QE) : le quotient du niveau de conscience (QC). Elle part du principe que, compte tenu des avancées scientifiques (en particulier dans le domaine de l’intelligence artificielle), l’intelligence humaine ne pourra plus rivaliser longtemps avec celle des machines ; et qu’il faut ...

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Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Factfulness

Factfulness

Selon les auteurs de Factfulness, les individus ont souvent une analyse erronée de leur environnement et ont tendance à prendre de mauvaises décisions. Quelles sont les raisons de ces erreurs et comment les éviter ? Pour répondre à ces questions, les auteurs distinguent neuf instincts ou biais cognitifs comme l’instinct du fossé, l’instinct de la généralisation, l’instinct du blâme, etc. Tout d’abord, les individus ont une vision binaire de la réalité : par exemple, l’humanité doit être ...

(680 more words)

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Économie, emploi - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

La Théorie du donut. L’économie de demain en 7 principes

La Théorie du donut. L’économie de demain en 7 principes

Venant d’un mouvement, Oxfam, dont le but affiché est de lutter contre la faim et la pauvreté dans le monde, mais dont quelques-unes des 20 associations membres rêvent aussi de faire table rase du passé pour mettre en place « une autre économie » ou « une autre société », on pouvait s’attendre à une pesante diatribe de 400 pages, bourrée de lieux communs. Or cet ouvrage est pondéré, agréable à lire et bien documenté (pas moins de 15 pages de bibliographie ...

(1142 more words)

Note de veille

Économie, emploi - Société, modes de vie

Inégalités de revenus : vers la stabilité ?

Alors qu’elles ont beaucoup diminué entre les années 1970 et le début des années 2000, les inégalités de niveaux de vie connaissent depuis, en France, des évolutions plus mitigées. Elles ont continué à diminuer entre 2010 et 2013, puis se sont stabilisées jusqu’en 2016. Cette stabilisation des inégalités de niveaux de vie peut-elle être durable ? Niveau de vie moyen des 10 % les plus riches rapporté à celui des 10 % les plus pauvresSource : INSEE, calculs et © Centre d ...

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Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

The Tyranny of Metrics

The Tyranny of Metrics

Professeur d’histoire à la Catholic University of America (Washington, D.C.), Jerry Z. Muller est l’auteur de plusieurs livres sur le capitalisme et rédige des chroniques pour les grands quotidiens américains. Son travail se situe au point de convergence de l’Histoire (notamment celle de l’Europe), de la philosophie et des sciences sociales. Dans le présent ouvrage, il dénonce la façon dont, malgré les tragiques erreurs commises, au nom de la rigueur mathématique, par le secrétaire d ...

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Analyse prospective

Population - Société, modes de vie

Campements et bidonvilles en France : qualification et quantification

La Mairie de Paris vient de publier les chiffres du premier recensement réalisé dans la capitale (les 15-16 février dernier) des personnes sans domicile fixe : près de 3 000 personnes concernées, sans tenir compte des hébergements d’urgence ni de l’accueil (en gymnase principalement) réalisé dans le cadre du plan Hiver. Mais à ces sans-abri, s’ajoutent aussi un certain nombre de personnes logeant dans des habitats précaires (campements, bidonvilles, etc.) dont il est également important de mesurer l ...

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Note de veille

Population - Société, modes de vie

La population musulmane en Europe, 2010-2050

Dès qu’il s’agit de population musulmane, les chiffres les plus fantaisistes ont droit de cité. Le crédit qui leur est accordé tient plus aux a priori qu’ils confirment qu’au sérieux avec lequel ils ont été établis. Ainsi, les données diffusées à partir de l’enquête téléphonique de la TNS-Sofres de 2007 auprès des 15 ans ou plus [1] plaisent beaucoup à ceux qui veulent à tout prix minimiser la présence musulmane en France : 3 % dont 32 ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi

The Emergence of the African Economies: A New Analytical Framework for Socio-Economic Drivers and Performance

The concept of emerging countries or economies appeared in the 1980s and gained currency when the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) seemed to be moving into a global leadership role. Though the concept remains ill-defined, “emergence” is frequently applied now to countries that show significant economic and social progress.

With the rejection of the many economic programmes that are often dictated by development agencies (e.g. structural adjustment programmes), and echoing a resolve on the part of Africans to take their fate into their own hands, there is much talk today of the emergence of Africa and of emergence plans being drawn up in many countries. But the question remains open as to what emergence means, what the main drivers of emergence are and how performance can be evaluated, particularly when it comes to comparing the different trajectories of African countries.

The Performances Group consultancy has developed an analysis grid for the process of emergence and produced a model based largely on a typology of the driving factors of emergence (collective ambition, leadership and vision, development of the private sector etc.) and economic and social performance indicators (economic growth, shared prosperity etc.). Its chief executive, Victor Ndiaye, and Ruben B. Djogbenou explain that analysis grid here and the way composite indicators have been established that make it possible to evaluate and compare the relative emergence of African countries. They propose an analytical framework for this process and, on the basis of the indicators selected, offer a league-table of countries detailing their performance levels between 2005 and 2015, which will no doubt spark considerable debate.

Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Un suivi de l’accord de Paris sur le climat depuis l’espace

Les 195 États signataires de l’accord de Paris conclu lors de la convention-cadre des Nations unies sur les changements climatiques (COP21) en décembre 2015 (dont les États-Unis, même si ceux-ci, sous l’administration Trump, ont exprimé l’intention de s’en retirer, d’une manière qui n’est pas encore claire) se sont engagés à diminuer leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) et en particulier de CO2, et à faire tous les cinq ans un bilan ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi

Measurement of the Digital Economy at the National Level: Do we Need to Redesign our Accounting Tools?

In its last issue (no. 417, March-April 2017), Futuribles initiated discussion on the question of the slowdown in productivity gains and the consequences for the countries concerned. After that first instalment, which assessed long-term productivity trends in the developed countries, the role of technical progress and intangible factors, we are continuing our reflection on this question with an examination of economic indicators — is the decline in productivity gains real or is it the product of statistical indicators that are not well-suited to their accurate measurement?

In this article, Didier Blanchet shows how the national accounts evaluate the French economy by measuring Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and how that particular measure copes with the spread of digital technology. Are the many innovations produced by the ICT revolution adequately measured in terms of their effective contributions to the economy and to the well-being of consumers? To tackle the question of a possible mismeasurement, Blanchet examines three points in the debate that seem essential to him. The first concerns the scope of GDP: what does it aim to measure and why? The second relates to issues around the volume-price split: how can price changes at constant quality be measured in a context where some economic activities are undergoing a marked transformation as a result of the digital revolution? Lastly, he raises the question of factoring well-being into economic indicators, stressing its importance but reminding us that the national accounts make no claim to measure it. The debate on this last issue extends well beyond that around GDP and how GDP takes in the effects of the digital revolution: it is a far more complex area of controversy and the national accounts are just one (admittedly, essential) element in it.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Population

Le Prix d’un homme. Plaidoyer pour un prix minimum de la vie humaine

Le Prix d’un homme. Plaidoyer pour un prix minimum de la vie humaine

Dans Le Prix d’un homme. Plaidoyer pour un prix minimum de la vie humaine, François-Xavier Albouy, docteur en économie, expert du risque et de l’assurance et fondateur de la revue Risques, mène une réflexion sur le prix que nos sociétés accordent à la vie d’un homme. Il souligne l’ambivalence, voire l’hypocrisie, à dire que la vie n’a pas de prix alors que l’observation des pratiques de nos sociétés indique le contraire. Il propose ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Société, modes de vie

The OECD’s Better Life Initiative: Measuring what Counts for Citizens and Society

“There is more to life than the cold numbers of GDP and economic statistics” runs the opening sentence on the website of the OECD’s recently created Better Life Index. This is an encouraging stance, given that, until the first decade of this century, economic indicators alone governed the measurement of the wealth and development of societies, despite that choice of quantitative indicators being regularly contested, not least in the columns of Futuribles. For 10 years or so, there has been increasing debate on the need to incorporate other elements (environmental and social factors, in particular) to measure the progress of societies and the OECD itself has moved into this new field by developing novel, more qualitative indicators. Martine Durand offers a view of this Better Life Initiative, launched by the OECD in 2011 and aimed at measuring what contributes to improving both individual and collective well-being. Apart from economic resources and job satisfaction, also assessed are state of health, housing conditions, quality of environment, work-life balance, educational level, community, civic engagement, personal safety and subjective well-being. After presenting this initiative and the value of the exercise, Martine Durand shows the main lessons that flow from it, particularly for France compared to the other member states of the OECD. She particularly stresses the specific attention given in the last edition of the “How’s Life?”report to the situation of children and the impact of voluntary work on individual well-being. Lastly, she highlights the need to incorporate these new indicators measuring well-being into the direction of public policy (as France, New Zealand and the United Kingdom do), so that they contribute effectively to social progress in the fields identified as essential by individuals.

Revue

Santé - Territoires, réseaux

Health in the Age of –and in Terms of– Big Data

The broad dissemination of information technology and the use of the Internet in very varied fields, both professional and personal, has triggered an unprecedented rush to collect data of all kinds. This data, personalized or pooled, makes up what today we call “big data”, a mass of highly diverse information that can be used for many and varied purposes, depending on the motivations of the companies or bodies exploiting it. In the health sector, the exploitation of big data is a source of both hope (since it may improve the understanding and solution of medical problems) and dangers (excessive monitoring of individual behaviour, ethical questions etc.), and it is important to bear this in mind if society is to gain optimal benefit from the use of this data.

Daniel Eilstein and Jérôme Pozuelos offer an overview here of the data gathered in France today with regard to health, how that data is processed, and the questions raised by the protection of personal data. They also show the perspectives opened up in the medical field by the use of such mass data (particularly through what is called data cross-referencing). Here again, research will have to find a solution to the freedom/security dilemma but, provided certain ethical conditions are respected, some noteworthy advances may well eventuate.

Editorial

Économie, emploi - Société, modes de vie

De la pensée à l’action

Arthur Cecil Pigou fut sans doute le premier, voici bientôt 100 ans, à avoir travaillé sur l’économie du bien-être et introduit la notion d’externalité [1], deux notions qui allaient rester très absentes des préoccupations qui ont présidé, quelques décennies plus tard, à l’établissement des systèmes modernes de comptabilité nationale. En revanche, quelque 50 ans plus tard, en France, la Commission des comptes de la nation souligne les limites de la comptabilité économique qui, pour reprendre les termes ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Société, modes de vie

Towards New Development Indicators: Issues and Challenges as Seen Through the Case of the European Union

“Wealth is unstable and passing”, wrote the Greek playwright Menander in the 4th century BCE, yet human beings have striven to measure it for centuries. And for many a long year they have done so using exclusively monetary and economic indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite regular objections to this choice of indicators, including in the pages of Futuribles, we had to wait until the 2000s before other elements (particularly, environmental and social factors) were taken into account by the national and international authorities in measuring the wealth and development of societies. Laura Brimont, Damien Demailly and Lucas Chancel remind us here how these new indicators emerged and the uses to which they can be put. They go on to show how they are becoming officially established at the European level and now form part of the medium-to-long-term strategies of the EU –for example, through the “Beyond GDP” initiative or the Europe 2020 strategy. They close by highlighting the issues involved in the establishment of such indicators, in symbolic terms, in terms of politico-economic harmonization and in terms of the evolution of European political priorities, while at the same time deploring a certain disconnect between the academic authorities producing these new indicators and the (political and citizen) actors who are expected to use them.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Images économiques du monde 2016

Images économiques du monde 2016

L’édition 2016 des Images économiques du monde, parue cet automne, consacre son dossier d’ouverture aux tensions internationales qui contrarient de plus en plus fortement la marche du monde. Trois axes sont ici traités : un axe socio-économique (« Une planète humaine sous tension : crise sociale et développement ») qui aborde la question démographique en lien avec l’objectif d’un développement durable, et la question de l’emploi ; un axe géopolitique largement centré sur l’émergence de nouvelles puissances, ses caractéristiques ...

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Revue

Éducation

Education: the Growing Impact of International Standards

The comparative educational studies carried out by various —public or private— international bodies have led to analyses and recommendations that have had an important influence on national or sub-national education policies. This is particularly the case with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Among other things, the OECD publishes annual indicators and, every three years, the results of evaluations carried out as part of its Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), which has been profoundly influential in many countries. To which we should add, in the case of EU members, the studies and tools developed by the European Commission through its “Open Method of Coordination”.

In this article, Alain Michel analyses the extent to which the impact of PISA and European recommendations are leading to a certain homogenization of educational policies and curriculums (contents, objectives, modes of assessment, coordination…). He also asks how justified the criticism of the OECD is for its allegedly over-economistic vision of education, and examines the reality of the soft power that organization might be said to exert on national education policies —a power which is, admittedly, driving towards convergence, though without as yet actually standardizing educational systems.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Un nouveau monde économique

Depuis plus de 70 ans, nous agissons dans un monde « piloté par le PIB [produit intérieur brut] », quoi qu’on en dise et en dépit des nombreuses recherches, contributions et avis publiés sur cette question depuis le rapport du Club de Rome et les premières interrogations sur la croissance, dans le début des années 1970. Pourtant, d’autres indicateurs existent bel et bien, issus de travaux mêlant économistes et statisticiens, voire des citoyens profanes engagés dans des dispositifs comme les ...

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Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Biomonitoring humain et gestion des risques sanitaires et environnementaux

Le biomonitoring humain consiste à analyser, au sein du corps d’une personne, la présence de substances toxiques (dans le sang, les urines, les cheveux, etc.). Cela permet de voir, par une analyse plus ou moins complexe, si l’environnement dans lequel évolue l’individu a ou non un impact sur son organisme et sa santé.                    De nombreux pays ont recours à cette technique depuis quelques années, notamment l’Allemagne, qui a « biomonitoré » plus de 50 éléments chimiques au cours ...

(1111 more words)

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Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Toxique ? Santé et environnement

Pesticides, perturbateurs endocriniens, nanoparticules, substances toxiques chimiques variées… : quel est leur impact sur notre santé ? Quel rôle jouent-ils dans le développement des pathologies caractéristiques de notre monde moderne (cancers, obésité, asthme…) ? Comment les données épidémiologiques collectées sont-elles analysées et dans quelle mesure servent-elles à la prise de décision ? Trois chercheurs et professeurs, Francelyne Marano, Robert Barouki et Denis Zmirou, explorent ces différentes questions dans Toxique ? Santé et environnement : de l’alerte à la décision. La première partie de l’ouvrage ...

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Revue

Population - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Tools for Measuring Segregation

With the rise of the Front National, the unearthing of hotbeds of Jihadism and polemics around whether there is social, or even ethnic, apartheid in certain districts, France has, since the January 2015 terrorist attacks, seen an increased level of debate on the existence of social ghettos and the sociology of the individuals who might live in them. And yet, as Bernard Aubry and Michèle Tribalat show here, there are very few reliable figures on which to build an argument one way or another, particularly regarding the origins of the population groups concerned. And the traditional indicators, supposing that they exist and are backed up correctly by the demographic surveys, are not necessarily the most pertinent for observing the sociological evolution of a population in a particular territory and its potential segregation. Drawing on a recent analysis carried out in the USA, Aubry and Tribalat show the relevance and importance of so-called neighbourhood segregation indicators that make it possible to assess the concentration of populations (on a socioprofessional or communal basis) much more subtly and in very precise geographical detail. Using old data available in France, they explain how these kinds of indicators could be developed in that country and what information they would be capable of providing. At the same time, they deprecate the scant interest shown in this by the official statistical institutes, if not indeed their hostility to it. This is an impasse which is, to say the least, deplorable, since whatever the positions defended by the various parties to the debates cited above, they need to be supported by precise data, as it is only on the basis of such data that appropriate political responses can be proposed.

Note de veille

Entreprises, travail - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Les brevets, indicateurs de qualité scientifique ?

Les brevets sont-ils un indicateur fiable de la compétitivité technologique des entreprises ? La réponse à cette question est loin d’être claire. En effet, peut-on mesurer la qualité d’un brevet, c’est-à-dire sa capacité à déboucher sur des percées techniques ? L’Observatoire des sciences et des techniques (OST) a essayé d’y répondre dans une étude récente portant sur un secteur particulièrement dynamique, celui de l’aéronautique et de la défense [1]. L’OST a traité les données de ...

(1075 more words)

Document étude

V3 : Evaluer par l’immatériel

La méthode V3 (« Vision, Valeurs, Volonté ») est un outil de pilotage stratégique et d’évaluation du capital d’une organisation et des décisions envisagées. Elle est issue d'un processus de réflexion collective d'un groupe de travail composé de représentants d'entreprises diverses (Électricité de France-Gaz de France, MAAF Assurances, Renault, Schneider Electric et la SNCF) et de Futuribles International.  

Futurs d'antan

Économie, emploi

Cost and Value of Human Life According to Alfred Sauvy (1977)

As Nicolas Treich shows in his article on the value of a human life in economics in this issue, in a context of the rationalization of budget decisions, the evaluation of public policies might draw more frequently on the statistical value of human life to inform analyses before political decisions are taken. This economic tool is part of the classical arsenal of cost-benefit analysis in the Anglo-Saxon world. Though used less systematically in France, the idea of attributing a value to human life is not entirely new there. As Alain Parant shows, looking back at analyses published almost 40 years ago by the French economist and demographer Alfred Sauvy, it is relatively easy to determine the cost of a human life and to assess the opportunity embodied in it or its “profitability” at different points in the age cycle (depending on whether we are in a stationary or a growing economy). And, though it is more difficult or less “politically correct” to determine its value, Sauvy argues that that value does have a de facto existence in the form of the socio-economic treatment applied to people at different times of their lives, but that this is not always based on sound assessment criteria.

Revue

Économie, emploi

The Value of Human Life in Economics

For many years France has been faced with a national debt that compels it now –and, no doubt, for a long time to come– to tighten its budget and control its spending as much as possible. In this context of long-term scarcity of budgetary resources, various economic and statistical instruments will have to be deployed to produce a rationalization of public expenditure. Among these, the technique that apportions a statistical value to human life could be used more systematically in the evaluation of public policy, ahead of actual decision-making. This Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) should not be understood as the value conferred on a particular human life, but as the amount the community is prepared to allocate to reduce a risk of death.

Nicolas Treich reminds us of this in this article, which aims to explicate the concept of the value of life in economics, to show how it is calculated and assessed empirically, and also what its role is (particularly in the Anglo-Saxon countries) in public decision-making. The point is that the VSL enables the impact of expenditure, regulation or investment on the risk of death to be evaluated, and thus enables trade-offs to be made. Clearly, these trade-offs are made at community level and still raise a number of questions (which the author reminds us of), particularly where fairness is concerned. Yet, given the budgetary constraints mentioned above, in an increasing number of political decisions, VSL will probably be incorporated into the decision-support criteria. Hence the need for a clear understanding of how it is arrived at and how this tool can be combined with other risk-management approaches and instruments.