Les projections d'effectifs scolaires dans le premier degré dépendent essentiellement du facteur démographique et, notamment, de l'estimation des naissances à venir. La DPD se base sur les derniers bilans démographiques de l'Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques pour estimer la population scolarisable des prochaines années. Le second facteur, d'effet beaucoup plus réduit, est l'évolution de la scolarisation à chaque âge, particulièrement à 2 ans et au-delà de 10 ans. Les prévisions s ...
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En se basant sur une analyse morphologique qui consiste en un croisement bidimensionnel des agents et des fonctions du système, Emilio Fontela s'efforce de réfléchir sur l'université dans ses deux fonctions, d'enseignement et de recherche, en termes prospectifs. Il utilise ensuite la méthode des scénarios, en prenant pour cadre ceux réalisés par la cellule de prospective de la Commission européenne « Europe 2010 ». Il dégage ensuite deux scénarios exploratoires et un scénario plus « normatif » pour l'avenir de ...
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Le groupe d'experts STRATA-ETAN (STRATegic Analysis - Expert Thematic ANalysis) a été mis en place par la Commission européenne en décembre 2001 dans le but d'identifier les différentes options devant soutenir, par le biais d'études prospectives, la coopération européenne dans le développement des relations entre l'éducation supérieure et la recherche. Ce rapport identifie les défis majeurs pour l'Europe en ce domaine et propose trois scénarios pour le développement des relations entre l'éducation supérieure et la ...
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Cet ouvrage réunit 29 auteurs de 12 pays différents, professeurs de prospective, qui décrivent les théories et méthodes qui sous-tendent leurs cours. Dans la partie introductive, Wendell Bell fait d'abord la distinction entre les futurs possibles, probables et préférables ; Eleonora Masini plaide pour une meilleure coopération entre les sciences sociales et la prospective, et Warren Wagar s'attarde sur le rôle de l'histoire dans les « future studies ». L'australien Richard Slaughter veut fonder une discipline critique, tandis que ...
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Les ouvrages sur l'utilisation des technologies de l'information et de la communication (NTIC) dans le domaine de l'éducation et de la formation sont évidemment très nombreux, tant paraît a priori évident l'impact que ces techniques exercent ou peuvent exercer sur le fonctionnement d'un secteur d'activités en plein essor et en pleine mutation, dans le contexte de la société et de l'économie dites de la connaissance. L'originalité, donc la valeur ajoutée, de ce ...
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Cette étude apporte un nouvel éclairage sur l'importance de l'éducation et sur la rentabilité des investissements qui lui sont consacrés, en passant en revue les centaines d'études réalisées sur ce thème au cours des dernières décennies. Globalement, le taux moyen de rendement d'une année supplémentaire de formation est de 10 %, mais il dépend du degré de développement économique du pays considéré : il est plus élevé en Amérique latine et dans les Caraïbes, ainsi qu'en Afrique ...
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Malgré les progrès réalisés sur la voie de l'égalité des chances entre les hommes et les femmes dans l'Union européenne, l'objectif d'une pleine égalité au quotidien est encore loin d'être atteint. Ce rapport donne un aperçu de la situation à trois stades de la vie - jeunesse, âge adulte, retraite - et met en évidence la position relative de chacun en termes de revenus, d'influence et de rôles respectifs dans la société. On y lit que ...
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Aboutissement d'une volonté d'automatisation de l'accès aux connaissances, le savoir en ligne, pour répondre aux impératifs actuels de formation, implique une double nécessité de formation technique des usagers et d'assistance par des opérateurs humains qualifiés, dont témoigne le rôle accru des médiateurs et des enseignants sur les réseaux. Or l'e-learning, en essor exponentiel depuis 1995, se heurte à deux obstacles : économique (coût des installations et de la formation des usagers) et pédagogique (sentiment d'abandon ...
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Drawing mainly on the example of Italy, but also on developments in other European Union countries, Professor Luisa Ribolzi of the University of Genoa examines the factors that have led to challenges to traditional ideas of equity in education systems; she then highlights the changes in attitude that to her seem irreversible.
The concept of egalitarianism based on the principle of providing a unified and unbiased system of state schools is being replaced by a concept of providing an equitable system that takes account of differences and a variety of needs. For this new approach to be implemented, the state's role as regulator needs to be redefined according to the principle of subsidiarity; it also requires greater autonomy for individual schools and new professional attitudes on the part of teachers and head teachers.
In his speech introducing the seminar "Schools: dateline 2020", Jacques Lesourne, who in 1987 wrote an important book about the future of the French education system in the medium and long term (Éducation et société demain. À la recherche des vraies questions. Paris: La Découverte, 1988), outlines the reasons why it is so necessary to think seriously about the outlook for education.
He mentions first the factors linked to the special nature of the tasks and constraints of the school system, and then discusses the main developments in the technological, economic and social context which will oblige education systems to undergo reforms. This will mean greater independence of action for those who, through their innovations, are able to generate "creative disorder", but also requires a prospective long-term study to clarify their decisions and initiatives.
Given both the new expectations and the new needs arising in the field of education, Françoise Cros offers an innovative portrait of the teacher of the future which some may find too strongly put but which is nevertheless quite plausible. Admittedly there are considerable obstacles to be overcome before the teaching profession undergoes such radical change, but her vision of what teachers might be like in 2020 is consistent with the emergence of a knowledge-based society and the new stress on life-long learning for all. Moreover, the writer makes the very relevant point in her conclusion that the high rate of turnover in the profession in the next ten years will create circumstances highly favourable to such change.
The remarks published here are extracts from an article that appeared in an issue of the journal Administration et éducation (no. 1, 1999) devoted to "Social divides, educational divides". Not included are Claude Thélot's observations on the development of social and geographical inequalities in the French education system: he argues that, whatever anyone says and even if inequalities can be seen to be moving upwards, the school system has nevertheless helped to make French society more democratic insofar as inequalities in access to education are, overall, less marked now than in the past.
That said, much still needs to be done in order to weaken the mechanisms whereby élites reproduce themselves. From this perspective, Claude Thélot argues that the education system should become more diversified while maintaining a strong national framework, able to curb the inequalities that might arise. He also makes the case for a deliberate policy of positive discrimination, while pointing out the contradictions that must be avoided, the precautions required and the need for transparency about the choices to be made.
Using the metaphor of painting, Jean-Michel Saussois sets out to provide here three broad-brush pictures representing the rôle of schools in the economy and society in France, the first two looking back to the thirty Glorious Years (the "Trente Glorieuses") followed by the thirty Lean Years, while the third looks forward to the developments linked to what is commonly called "the knowledge-based economy".
Against this historical backdrop, he analyses the dynamic interaction between the tasks given to schools and the changes in priorities and means of regulating the economy and society. Thus between the end of World War II and the end of the 1960s, the French republican élitist model fitted well with the Fordist organization of industrial production. During the subsequent 30 years, characterized by increasing globalization and a growing reliance on market forces, new forms of competition destabilized both the Fordist compromise and the crucial role of schools in facilitating upward social mobility, as well as the tight links between diplomas, skills and remuneration. Although paper qualifications have become more essential than ever, they are now less and less a guarantee of upward social mobility. The result has been a loss of confidence in schools, while even more is expected of them. The current rise of the knowledge-based economy demands new skills, some of which can be acquired and assessed only on the job, and this leads to the emergence of new markets in skills that oblige schools to redefine their key role and to change their ways of operating.
There is no single European model for education, let alone a universally accepted one. Even within the European Union there is enormous diversity, which Francine Vaniscotte sets out to describe here.
Two different views coexist, she explains: the first combines primary education with the first stage of secondary education (everyone attends a single school), whereas the second considers an initial division (selection?) at the beginning of secondary schooling to be necessary.
Taking her analysis a step further, the author identifies four types of education system within the EU:
- the single school model (everyone attends the same school for the whole period of compulsory education) operating in Scandinavia;
- the all-purpose school model, offering pupils a variety of possibilities at secondary level (Great Britain);
- the streamed school model, which is structured according to options chosen early on, but with some degree of mobility between them; this is the most common arrangement in Austria, Germany, Luxemburg, Switzerland, etc.;
- the common core model (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain), which is inspired by the single school model but does not fully apply it, and is shaped by very different traditions and values.
These differences relate to religious traditions and to deep cultural disparities; they also reflect ideological differences, Francine Vaniscotte emphasizes, though she concludes by pointing out some factors bringing the models closer together.
In this second introductory presentation of the topic "Schools: dateline 2020", Alain Michel, the academic coordinator of the seminar, briefly highlights the main challenges raised for schools by a rapidly changing society which is causing inequalities to become greater and generating new ethical issues, while also creating demands for new skills and even new mental attitudes.
He then discusses the changing expectations with regard to the education system and raises the key question of what shared general culture all pupils should have acquired by the time they leave school in 2020.
Lastly, he offers several ideas about the consequences of all this for the way the process of learning is organized, how change is guided, and the outlook for teaching as a profession. Aspects of these topics were discussed in two articles published in Futuribles in 2000 and 2001 (nos. 252 and 266).
Alain Michel proposes six scenarios for the future of schools in the industrialized countries over the next 15 to 20 years. The scenarios have been developed as part of the programme on "Tomorrow's schools" of the Centre for Research and Innovation in Education (CERI) at OECD (the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).
Under the first scenario the status quo continues, which would mean generally deteriorating schools, despite some marginal improvements.
The second scenario, called "Extending the market model", shows what might happen if state schools were at least partly privatized, ultimately leading to a greater split between the public and private sectors in education.
The third scenario, called "Schools at the heart of the community", represents the exact opposite, in which education is considered to be a public good, and schools would play a key role in promoting citizenship.
The fourth scenario, too, "Schools as key learning institutions", tries to respond to the need to upgrade the role and prestige of education whilst placing greater emphasis on the responsibilities of schools to develop knowledge and skills.
By contrast, the remaining two scenarios reflect forms of decline. In the fifth, "Networks of learners" within a society composed of networks (typical of today! ) the main features are the fragmentation of national education systems, the diminishing role of the state and, simultaneously, the rise of local school systems and major networks.
The final scenario has the striking title "The flight of teachers and collapse". It foresees schools deteriorating and general discontent, especially on the part of parents and teachers. This is probably unlikely to occur within the next 20 years, and would happen only if there were major upheavals in the short or medium term.
Obviously these scenarios are not all equally probable, and are even less likely to occur in every part of the OECD area. Furthermore, some of them are more hypothetical while others are more normative. Nonetheless, they are extremely useful in quashing fears of possibilities that clearly remain open. They also show the importance of the issues facing schools today.
À quoi ressemblera l'école de demain ? Quelles sont les grandes tendances qui influent le plus sur l'éducation et de quelles façons vont-elles se manifester dans les prochaines années ? À quels problèmes de fond faut-il s'attaquer aujourd'hui pour ouvrir dans ce domaine des perspectives d'avenir favorables ? À partir d'un ensemble très fourni de données internationales provenant d'études statistiques et de travaux de recherche, cet ouvrage analyse les tendances à l'œuvre au XXIe siècle ...
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What is needed in response to the "third Industrial Revolution" currently under way is a new social contract which would be the counterpart of what the welfare state was to the second industrial age, except that - given the present trend toward globalization - this new social contract should benefit everyone and not a minority of the relatively fortunate.
To Jerôme Bindé, one of the essential elements in this new social contract is lifelong learning for all, as the only possible remedy for the appalling problems of literacy that affect not only the poor countries but also the so-called developed nations.
Yet these problems cannot be solved simply by extending systems of education based on the old models. We need to completely rethink what is taught and how it is taught, making the most of the latest technologies to promote distance education and access to knowledge for all. But it is important also to be aware of the danger that these technologies may themselves lead to new disparities, new forms of illiteracy, and that they will create a gulf between a minority of the "haves" with access to "the paradise of knowledge" and the "have-nots" consigned to the hell of educational ghettos.
In order to avoid this outcome and truly to allow everyone to benefit from education they need throughout their lives, and not just the basics at the beginning, it is necessary to rethink the delivery systems and promote distance education. The author offers various examples from both North (the Open University in Britain) and South (a Unesco project in nine developing countries).
As regards content, Jerôme Bindé stresses the need "to learn to learn" throughout life: "learn to know, to do, to be, but also to live with one another". And while he emphasizes the usefulness of a basic education in certain disciplines (philosophy, history), he never misses an opportunity to insist that development and democracy ultimately depend on education and the constant fostering of human abilities.