Avec La France des territoires, défis et promesses, Pierre Veltz offre une analyse prospective stimulante. En l’ancrant dans le temps long et en s’appuyant sur sa connaissance fine des transformations socio-économiques, en particulier celles concernant la mondialisation et l’hyperindustrialisation, il déconstruit nombre d’idées fausses qui encombrent le débat public et parvient à énoncer en termes renouvelés les enjeux politiques de la France. Son hypothèse : nous assistons à un tournant local qui, bien négocié, pourrait constituer un ...
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In analysing the dynamics of different territories in France over a long period, Gérard-François Dumont shows how three very distinct periods can be distinguished. Up until the end of the 18th century, the country was mainly rural. It became more urban from 1936 onwards and the populations of mid-sized towns then began to grow at the expense of the big cities. However, this trend was reversed 40 years later when the cities began to take off. The author examines the reasons for the rise and fall of these different spaces, showing that there is no inevitability about the futures that different territories will enjoy.
This is attested by the fact that highly contrasting dynamics are seen at different levels, as Dumont shows here with three examples. His first is the town of Vitré near Rennes, which seemed in danger of becoming a “dormitory town” for the nearby city, as Rennes, with its industrial development, drew in enormous numbers of workers. The second example is the small town of Espelette, which also seemed doomed to decline but, thanks to the Confrérie du piment d’Espelette — an association for the promotion of the local variety of red pepper — actually developed an impressive dynamism through agricultural activities and tourism. The third is a little village in the Haute-Loire department called Saint-Bonnet-le-Froid, which was also transformed into a tourist and culinary destination by the efforts of the management of the Auberge des cimes hotel. From these case studies, Gérard-François Dumont draws a number of lessons regarding the factors that determine a territory’s future.
As we are constantly repeating in Futuribles journal, no territory is doomed in advance. Its future depends primarily on the ability of local actors to combine their efforts to serve a vision rooted in the particular characteristics of the locality.
Le rapport Crise et développement. La région du lac Tchad à l’épreuve de Boko Haram effectue la synthèse d’une étude réalisée par l’Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD) sur la région du lac Tchad, pour le compte de l’Agence française de développement (AFD). Les travaux de terrain et en ateliers qui ont permis la collecte d’une grande part des données utilisées ont été conduits entre mars et juin 2017, la rédaction du rapport ayant ...
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Dans le cadre de l’élaboration de la stratégie régionale pour la mer et le littoral (SRML), le conseil régional de Bretagne a confié au CESER l’élaboration de trajectoires possibles pour la Bretagne maritime à l’horizon 2040. Le rapport explore quatre récits imagés et contrastés destinés à susciter le débat et à éclairer les décisions d’aujourd’hui, afin de faire de la mer le pilier du développement durable de la Bretagne et de sa cohésion sociale et ...
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Given the serial failure in recent decades of policies enacted in France (by both Right and Left) to counter unemployment and revive economic activity, a number of actors and parts of the country have set about developing projects on their own initiative and on their own local scale. These are what are known as “bottom-up initiatives”, attempting to stimulate new thinking or activities from the grassroots. It is the role of the “Makers of the Future” column in Futuribles to present these kinds of initiatives and hence encourage citizens to be proactive in economic and social matters.
In this issue, Marthe de La Taille-Rivero has chosen to present the story and current activities of Pôle Archer, an economic development hub established in the Drôme department of South-Eastern France. Though initially built on what remained of an economically devastated shoe industry, the hub has pulled in actors from very different sectors to revive local economic activity. Pôle Archer was, then, one of the first French horizontal — rather than vertical — competitiveness hubs, being linked to a geographical area and not to a particular sector of excellence. The experiment has since spread, with the establishment of PTCEs — territorial clusters of economic cooperation. Given its encouraging prospects, Pôle Archer provides further evidence of the desirability of such bottom-up projects, which often owe their success to the motivation of their developers and, in many cases, turn out to have long-term viability. This is also what Marthe de La Taille-Rivero shows in the appendix to this article, where she goes back over several of the initiatives that have been described here since this particular column was launched. Most of these have held up and seen their activities expand, a sign that they were genuinely the work of “Makers of the Future”.
Martin Vanier ajoute à ses qualités de géographe celles d’un théoricien et d’un écrivain profondément attaché au sens des mots. En un temps où la pensée politique se contente trop souvent de formules plus médiatiques que pertinentes (comme l’égalité des territoires), il nous propose une clef de lecture particulièrement éclairante : le couple dialectique réseaux et territoires. Il explique pourquoi nos systèmes de représentation politique et de management public, profondément ancrés dans la notion de territoire, sont aujourd ...
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As many observers see it –and have for more than 30 years now– the so-called industrialized societies are all travelling in the shorter or longer term towards a post-industrial order in which services will supplant productive activities. Yet, as Pierre Veltz shows here, that may not be how the future will pan out. Contrary to the thinking that sees industry as a thing of the past, to be supplanted by tertiary activities, Pierre Veltz outlines the emergence of a hyper-industrial model that consists in combining industrial production with service activities, thanks largely to digital technology and networked organization.
After recapping the development of the industrial world over a long period (in which leadership by Western countries is actually quite recent), Pierre Veltz presents the new industrial question from four angles: times and space (a world of hubs and networks, with enterprises between hyper-distribution and hyper-concentration); sources of performance (rise of transactional relations, but a need also for interpersonal relations and trust); forms of competition (the growing role of fixed costs and investment in design, access to networks, infrastructure etc.); and modalities of organization (increasing recourse to project teams and service provision).
The emergence of a hyper-industrial society of this kind represents an opportunity for France if it equips itself to become part of it, while taking account of the inherent dangers and ambivalence, such as the risk of hyper-polarization between high-powered decision-making and production centres and more specialized, sub-contracting territories, and the danger of a threat to salaried employment with reduced levels of employment protection. However, as Pierre Veltz sees it, France (like Europe in general) seems better placed in these areas than its American and Asian competitors to be able to combine innovation, security and solidarity.
Dans le cadre de son dispositif de prospective régionale, le conseil régional Nord-Pas-de-Calais mène actuellement un travail autour de la résilience, avec une expérimentation prospective sur deux territoires : la Communauté d’agglomération du Douaisis, et l’Agence Boulogne Développement Côte d’Opale. Une journée d’échanges organisée le 24 juin 2015 a permis de partager les premiers enseignements de l’expérimentation avec un large panel de témoins, représentant aussi bien les collectivités locales, les acteurs économiques ou culturels, que le ...
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Echoing the forum in this issue devoted to “France between declinism and tradition” –and particularly Cécile Désaunay’s article, which highlights the many new initiatives aiming to set the country on the path of transition, Éric Vidalenc shows here how a region –Nord-Pas-de-Calais– is taking its fate into its own hands and embarking on this path. Still bearing the scars, both in its landscapes and socio-economically, of the last two industrial revolutions (coal, followed by the steel and textile industries), Nord-Pas-de-Calais has in fact been embarked, for several years, on a resilience process aimed at implementing a “third industrial revolution” (of the kind advocated by Jeremy Rifkin), based on control of energy consumption, renewable energies and digital technologies. Éric Vidalenc shows how that process got underway, describes its aims, the actors and the resources mobilized, and outlines the first lessons that come out of this ambitious strategic, forward-looking exercise. It is, of course, too early to see tangible results in economic, social or environmental terms etc., but we should probably welcome the dynamic that has been set in train and the pro-activeness of the local actors who have formed a stern resolve to put an end to decline by taking the path of a self-chosen sustainable development.
En publiant Le Nouvel Égoïsme territorial, Laurent Davezies élargit le champ de sa réflexion. Après avoir décrit les fonctionnement et géographie des mécanismes de redistribution monétaire qui irriguent le développement des territoires à base économique résidentielle, après avoir alerté sur la fragilité d’un processus d’équilibrage et de solidarité qui repose sur le dynamisme des métropoles françaises dans la mondialisation et un niveau de transfert public que les contraintes budgétaires du pays ne semblent pas pouvoir maintenir, l’économiste ...
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Même s’il n’existe pas de recensement officiel, une trentaine de monnaies locales complémentaires (MLC) seraient aujourd’hui en circulation en France, et autant sont en projet. On en compterait 5 000 dans le monde et leur nombre serait en hausse depuis le début des années 2000, notamment depuis le début de la crise économique qui a accru la méfiance envers les monnaies officielles . Ces monnaies suscitent un engouement croissant mais sont encore peu étudiées, surtout par les ...
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Interview de Laurent Davezies par Hugues de Jouvenel, le mardi 2 décembre 2014, à l'occasion de la table ronde sur « Comment ont évolué et pourraient évoluer les performances relatives des régions françaises ? ». Cette table ronde était introduite par Laurent Davezies, professeur au Conservatoire national des arts et métiers (Cnam) où il est titulaire de la chaire « Économie et développement des territoires », enseignant en économie urbaine et régionale à Paris XII, Paris I et Sciences Po, auteur avec Thierry Pech ...
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Following Mario Polèse’s article which opens our dossier on “Greater Paris”, Jean-Claude Prager shows how the Paris region, which seems to have reached some limits in terms of economic dynamism, not unlike France itself, should and can rebound in the knowledge economy.
After reviewing the weaknesses of the Île-de-France in terms of employment and economic growth, he stresses its failings with regard to innovation, a crucial factor in determining the international rankings of rival metropolises (London, Tokyo, New York etc.). Jean-Claude Prager also underscores the essential place of human capital as one of the key factors where innovation and economic drawing power are concerned; hence the need to improve the education system and increase research provision, both regionally and nationally. Lastly, re-dynamizing French enterprise also involves new forms of state intervention and incentivization in favour of both enterprise creation and the consolidation of small and medium-sized companies. This is ground on which the Île-de-France could serve as a local test-bed for initiatives that could later be rolled out nationally. With such a vision, Jean-Claude Prager argues that the prospect of the development of an entity like Greater Paris represents a genuine opportunity for the Île-de-France region.
Introducing the dossier on “Greater Paris” published in this issue, Canadian professor Mario Polèse takes an external look at Paris’s place among the world’s great cities. Expressing surprise that the city isn’t the economic capital of Europe, given its geographical position and other assets, he offers various strands of explanation, first relating to language, but, more importantly, to economics and regulation. Speculating on the role Greater Paris might play in improving the place of the French capital in the new economy, he stresses the rigidities that currently deter the establishment of start-up companies in the capital (particularly in the property field), even though there are considerable resources in terms of scientific and technological research in the Île-de-France region (France’s “Silicon Valley” on the Plateau de Saclay). He concludes by proposing two possible scenarios for the capital region –assuming the development of Greater Paris and with a time-horizon of 2030– depending on whether or not genuine structural economic changes are made in France to attract and retain talent.
The revolutions that have rocked the region (the famous “Arab Spring”) have kept the Maghreb on the front pages of the world’s press for more than three years now. Today it is at a crossroads. On the one hand, the countries of the Maghreb –Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia– are struggling to recover their political equilibrium. On the other, they are unable to meet the socio-economic challenges facing them in a context of internationalizing trade and strong competition from the developing countries of Asia. However, the region has many assets that could enable it to find its place in the global economy, if a genuine effort of regional integration were undertaken.
This is what Nadji Safir demonstrates here. He begins by stressing the limitations of the development policies pursued in the Maghreb and the region’s shortcomings in terms of the “social management of knowledge”. He goes on to outline the seven major sets of issues and constraints that are crucial to the future of the region, which he breaks down as follows: ideological and cultural; political and security-related; educational and scientific; social and economic; ecological and territorial; humanitarian and security-related; and political and geostrategic. On the basis of these issues and of the assets at the disposal of the countries of the Maghreb, Safir stresses that regional economic integration is an essential prerequisite for turning the area into a genuine growth hub rather than a crisis zone, and doing so at the regional and also, potentially, the international level.
En 2011, le Qatar bénéficie d’une balance courante qui lui a permis de dégager 56 milliards de dollars US d’excédents. Ces montants ont permis de : — moderniser les infrastructures (villes, autoroutes, ferroviaires, aéroports, loisirs) ; — renforcer le secteur industriel (liquéfaction et pétrochimie) ; — développer les services (financiers, tourisme). L’économie publique reste dominante et représente 75 % à 80 % du PIB (produit intérieur brut). Grâce à cette politique expansionniste sur les plans budgétaire et monétaire, et malgré la crise mondiale, l’Émirat ...
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The re-election in June 2011 of prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an in Turkey, confirmed the rootedness in Turkish society of the AKP, the Islamic party that has commanded a majority in the country since 2002. It has to be said that the “Turkish model”, so often advocated by Western countries in the 20th century, has undergone major development and is arousing growing attention on the part of Turkey’s Arab neighbours. Given the geopolitical upheavals affecting North Africa and the Middle East for almost a year now, can this non-Arab border-nation between East and West, with its secular, democratic state led by an Islamic party enjoying broad popular support, become a source of regional inspiration ?
Jean Marcou examines this question within the framework of the series of articles on the Mediterranean initiated by Futuribles in 2011. He begins by reminding us how much the image of Turkey has changed in less than a century, with the “Turkish model” evolving from that of a modernized, secular Muslim country – which, despite a relatively flimsy layer of democracy and the domination of politics by the army, became an ally of the West – into a democracy asserting its Muslim identity and exercising an independent diplomacy. This has been a course of development that has left the country no longer an estranged “brother” to its Arab neighbours, but a power with renewed autonomy vis-à-vis the West and an example that might inspire those countries which have just emancipated themselves from the yoke of dictators. Quite clearly, as Jean Marcou reminds us, a number of internal ambiguities and difficulties remain, beginning with the Kurdish question, but the former “Sick Man of Europe” has undoubtedly become a key actor again in this region that stands the crossroads of Africa, Europe and Asia.
What are the prospects for territorial cohesion policy as a complementary objective to economic and social cohesion policy, asks Jean-François Drevet here. He first outlines the analytical actions and tools for the territory of Europe created within the framework of Community regional policy — European Regional Development Fund, Interreg programme, Green Paper etc. — then, comparing it with existing arrangements, reflects on the possible implementation of the new territorial cohesion objective, which he sees as a priority. This objective “introduces a concern for balance that aims to provide territories, and hence populations, with guarantees of access to infrastructures and social services, which”, he concludes, “are one of the foundations of democracy and economic efficiency”.
The choice of indicators enabling us to understand the world, society etc. and to act on that understanding has always been central to the concerns of the Futuribles journal. These pages have, in consequence, often seen criticism of the limitations of the French statistical machinery (for measuring migration flows, for example, or the integration of population groups of foreign origin) or of human development indicators, such as those used by the United Nations, which do not take sufficient account of social and environmental aspects.
In this article, Florence Jany-Catrice and Rabih Zotti take this debate forward, presenting a social health indicator (SHI) applicable to the French regions (based on a scale measuring inequality and poverty) that was recently trialled by the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region. Taking into account the many dimensions that play their part in the social health of an area (education, policing and justice, employment, housing, income, health and social relations), this SHI was applied to the various French regions for 2004 and casts a new light on their levels of social performance. In the main, the urbanized regions come furthest down the scale, whereas others, such as Limousin, emerge as socially successful. Some regions remain at the bottom of the scale whichever indicator is selected. These include Nord-Pas-de-Calais and Languedoc-Roussillon, which are among the stragglers both in terms of income per inhabitant and social health. Generally, however, it was found that good economic health and good social health do not go together systematically.
Is access to Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) a prior condition or a consequence of a country's economic development? To put it another way, should the developing countries wait until they have reached an economic level close to that of the industrialized countries before accessing - and benefiting from - ICT and its economic impact, or should they rather vest their efforts in ICT in order to stimulate their economic development? In the view of the authors of this article, the latter option may well be the right one where Africa is concerned.
After outlining the emergence and nature of telecommunications on the African continent (particularly the mobile telephone), this article examines that technology's contribution to economic growth and development, including direct and indirect employment, the rise of new activities, service substitution, contributions in terms of education and health etc. It also stresses the particular case of "m-payment" (payment by mobile phone), which helps to bring access to systems of micro-payment, micro-finance and other banking services to a population very largely excluded from the classic circuits of banking and finance. This is a means of imparting dynamism to the economy and triggering a virtuous circle. Without neglecting the limits to the expansion of ICT in Africa (and keeping in mind the many regional disparities), the authors express genuine optimism about African countries' access to ICT (which might even be boosted by technological leaps, such as, for example, the mobile internet) and about the positive impacts of that access on the continent's development.
La formation de partenariats public / privé s'est révélée un élément essentiel de la croissance régionale et locale dans de nombreux pays développés. Les agences de développement économique adoptent une approche pluraliste pour atteindre les objectifs économiques, sociaux, environnementaux qu'elles fixent en fonction de leurs priorités locales. Les projets primordiaux portent toujours sur la régénération de zones sinistrées ou abandonnées. Cependant les expériences sont singulières car en liaison avec la gestion spécifique des actifs locaux. Dans ces exemples, le ...
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Comme le souligne Hugues de Jouvenel en introduction, la Méditerranée, région au passé d’une richesse extrême, est aujourd’hui marquée par des tensions et des fractures importantes, ne fût-ce qu’en matière économique et environnementale. Les tendances actuelles sont-elles tenables à moyen et long termes ? C’est à cette question et à réfléchir aux moyens d’action possibles que se consacre le Plan bleu depuis sa création à la fin des années 1970. À l’occasion de la sortie ...
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Experts in local development are obsessed by the apparent recent growth of competition among regions to attract productive activities. According to Laurent Davezies, they are focussing on the wrong aim: "what matters for the development of a given region is not to produce as much wealth as possible but to tap into as much consumer spending as possible".
The author argues that France is witnessing a growing divergence between the areas where things are produced as against those where they are consumed, as a result in particular of the amount of time spent not working and the places where we spend our leisure, which are quite separate from those where we work.
The areas where people go for their leisure time and as consumers (both being activities that incidentally stimulate local economies) are far more dynamic and attractive - in part thanks to the injection of public funds - than metropolitan areas (starting with the Paris region), where the quality of life is declining.
Laurent Davezies's conclusion is that the French are tending to move to regions that are more attractive for residential purposes, which means above all those focussing on consumption.
La situation économique d'Amiens est délicate : handicaps découlant de sa proximité avec Paris (université, recherche et développement), activité commerciale quasi exclusivement de proximité, et faible poids des entrepreneurs et commerçants locaux. Comparée aux communautés voisines (Reims, Lille, Rouen), la capitale picarde manque de signes de reconnaissance et reste à l'écart des grands axes de communication (lignes ferroviaires à grande vitesse, aéroports Roissy-Charles-de-Gaulle et Orly). Cependant, de nouvelles opportunités apparaissent et conduisent à l'identification de trois grands axes ...
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Cet article présente l'exercice de construction de scénarios réalisé en novembre 2002, lors d'une conférence sur l'avenir des régions européennes organisée par le think-tank allemand Scenario Management International (ScMI). La méthode utilisée est longuement développée. Tout d'abord, trois grandes questions ont servi de cadre à la réflexion : la première portait sur la vitesse de l'intégration européenne, la deuxième sur la survie des cultures régionales, la troisième sur le dynamisme de l'innovation technologique au sein ...
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