Croissance économique

Bibliography

Économie, emploi

Fault Lines in China’s Economic Terrain

Dans cette étude de la Rand Corporation, une équipe d'économistes tente d'évaluer ce qui pourrait entraver, et selon quelle ampleur, la croissance explosive de la Chine dans la prochaine décennie. Huit fractures potentielles sont identifiées. Le premier défi chinois est le développement du chômage, de la pauvreté et de troubles sociaux. Les auteurs évaluent le chômage en 1999 à 23 % de la population active, soit 170 millions de personnes, chiffre dû en particulier à la croissance démographique des ...

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Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

The European Economy in the Medium Term

Les instituts appartenant à l'AIECE (Association of European Conjuncture Institutes) ont mis en commun leurs prévisions de croissance économique à l'horizon 2007. L'OFCE les a rassemblées et en a tiré des prévisions globales qui indiquent, pour la zone euro, une croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) de 0,8 % en 2003, 1,9 % en 2004 et une moyenne de 2,2 % par an entre 2004 et 2007. Dans les pays de l'Est et scandinaves, ces chiffres ...

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Futurs d'antan

Économie, emploi

L’économie politique de la gratuité (1957)

We reprint here a piece that was originally published by Bertrand de Jouvenel in 1957, later included in his book Arcadie. Essais sur le mieux vivre (Arcadia. Essays on Living Better; Paris: SÉDÉIS, collection Futuribles, 1968), which happily has just been brought out again (Paris: Gallimard, coll. Tel, 2002).
In this text, which appeared almost 50 years ago, the author of Arcadia, after discussing the limitations of economic accounting methods, argues how inadequate the methods are, inasmuch as they do not take account of unpaid services (work in the home, for example) or free goods (such as oxygen) or what he terms "negative goods", today more commonly called externalities.
Reading this article by the pioneer of "political ecology" makes one wonder how much progress there has been in our thinking over the last 50 years. We should recall, moreover, that it was at roughly the same time (1971, to be precise) that Futuribles published Jacques Delors' book Les Indicateurs sociaux (Social Indicators), which also stressed the need even then to design better tools (than economic indicators alone) for measuring the state of our societies. Let us hope that in future, further encouraged by concern for the environment, more sustained efforts will be made to improve national accounting systems.

Revue

Économie, emploi

De la croissance au développement. À la recherche d’indicateurs alternatifs

Among the sayings associated with the social upheavals of 1968 in France were "nobody falls in love with a growth rate" and the gross national product (GNP) doesn't measure the level of national happiness... This was the start of criticisms of the yardsticks used to measure national performance, and what some called derogatively "the gospel of progress" with its heavy reliance on economic indicators.
Almost 40 years later, have we really managed to shake off this way of thinking? Not really, says Jean Gadrey. He echoes the criticisms of the gross domestic product (GDP), which is used even more often today, and discusses the advances that have been made towards creating different indicators, the best known being the "human development index" constructed by the UN Development Programme.
From the outset Gadrey acknowledges that "the choice of weights attached to the different variables making up an indicator, like the choice of variables taken to be significant, is a matter for public debate and for a confrontation of viewpoints, as to what should be included and what should be of greatest importance". Bearing this in mind, he presents the efforts made in recent years to develop new indicators that capture more accurately social advances and/or the impact of human activities on the environment. He then describes the new overall indicators, which can be grouped into three categories:
- those mainly concerned with matters of human and/or social development, without systematically attaching monetary values to the variables;
- those inspired mainly by environmental concerns, without systematically attaching monetary values to the variables;
- those intended to complement the national accounting indicators by adding or subtracting variables measured in monetary terms, with variants that factor in environmental criteria to a greater or lesser extent.
Since the second half of the 1990s there has been renewed interest in these overall indicators of development. Gadrey describes those that he considers the most promising, making clear how they have been constructed and how reliable they appear to be. His article is especially welcome at a time when a new approach is emerging (exemplified in France by the work of Dominique Méda and Patrick Viveret) that seeks to "re-evaluate wealth", to assess more accurately the true level of economic and social development, also taking environmental factors into account, not only of our countries but also of our organisations. In many ways, therefore, the article is in line with the studies being undertaken, including in businesses, to improve accounting systems and to be less rigidly bound by evaluations measured solely in commercial terms.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Population

« Démographie et croissance mondiale à l’horizon 2030 »

Au cours des trente prochaines années, le rythme de progression de la population active va ralentir dans toutes les régions du monde. La croissance économique mondiale (3%) pourrait cependant rester comparable à celle des trente années passées grâce à une hausse plus forte de la productivité et au poids croissant des zones émergentes les plus dynamiques. Le glissement du centre de gravité de l'économie mondiale vers l'Asie en développement va s'accentuer. En revanche, le rattrapage des régions ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Population

2000-2040 : population active et croissance

Le vieillissement de la population française va avoir des conséquences sur l'économie et en particulier sur l'évolution de la population active. Un des moyens de combler le déficit de main d'oeuvre serait une remontée des taux d'activité, notamment aux âges extrêmes de la vie active. La suppression progressive des dispositifs de cessation d'activité permettrait une hausse du taux d'activité des plus âgés, et le cumul emploi-formation une augmentation de celui des plus jeunes.

Revue

Économie, emploi

Le cycle Kondratieff : mythe et réalité

The upturn in economic growth in France since 1997, a few years later than in the United States, has been interpreted in a number of different ways. For many observers, it suggests the start of a new phase of expansion, following logically, as required by the Kondratiev cycles, on the "Thirty Lean Years" that succeeded the post-war period of growth.
According to many enthusiastic believers in the Kondratiev function, our economies are subject to phases of expansion and then of less rapid growth occurring inevitably, no matter what we do, every 50 years; the present upturn is supposedly stimulated by a favourable international environment and the coming-of-age of the information and communications technologies.
Éric Bosserelle argues that this is a crass and wrongheaded interpretation of the theories of Nicolaï Kondratiev, who was interested only in long-term fluctuations in prices and never claimed to construct a theory that would be able to explain the past, let alone predict future patterns of economic growth.
Bosserelle reminds us of some essential truths about Kondratiev's work, the somewhat fragile empirical basis for it and the long-term fluctuations that he brought to light. He demonstrates the advantages as well as the limits of the theories, including those that arose from the particular circumstances of the period Kondratiev studied.
He therefore stresses that the Kondratiev cycles are concerned with the dynamics of prices of basic products over the long term, a concern that is unfortunately completely or partially overlooked by modern theories, none of which has managed to deal convincingly with a key question: the recurrence of cycles lasting half a century. Consequently, Éric Bosserelle concludes, it would be as well to remain cautious with regard to certain fashionable viewpoints which suggest that our economies are going to develop according to unalterable laws.

Revue

Économie, emploi

France : retour au plein emploi ?

Edmond Malinvaud offers us here a masterly economics lecture on the subject of employment. It is in three parts: the first concentrates on the lessons of the past, the second looks at the prospects and issues between now and 2010, and the third examines the priorities that should govern French economic policy.
First of all he surveys the developments observed in the course of recent decades, stressing in particular the increasing levels of unemployment up to 1996, which he blames not so much on the frequently cited rigidities of French society as on rapid wage increases which were halted belatedly by a strong economic policy.
Then, observing that the French economy managed to generate 1.6 million jobs in the last four years as a result of a more favourable economic climate and an interventionist public policy, Malinvaud reflects on the prospects for economic growth, including those caused by the boom in new technologies and, above all, on the future increases in productivity -the factors boosting and holding it back- and the likelihood of a new situation of full employment, including the possible level of structural unemployment.
Along the way he stresses the risks of inflation and argues the need both for a "carefully judged macroeconomic policy" and for a reform of the welfare state so as to avoid, in particular, the traps of unemployment and low activity rates.
In the end, Edmond Malinvaud highlights the priorities that French economic policy ought to adopt if it is to achieve a better balance henceforth between economic and social concerns, and between efficiency and fairness.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Macroéconomie et santé : investir dans la santé pour le développement économique

Améliorer l'état de santé et l'espérance de vie des pauvres est une fin en soi, et c'est en principe un des buts du développement économique. Mais l'amélioration de la santé est aussi une condition essentielle de ce même développement. En effet, le sida, le paludisme, la tuberculose (entre autres) entravent encore la croissance de nombreux pays, particulièrement en Afrique. Selon les auteurs de ce rapport, un investissement de 66 milliards de dollars US supplémentaires par an ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

L’impact des TIC sur la croissance. Les technologies de l’information et de la communication en France : diffusion et contribution à la croissance économique

This article examines the most recent assessments of the spread of information technology (IT) in the French economy and their contribution to growth; these evaluations are accompanied by some comparisons with the United States.
The authors start by looking at the impact of IT on the French economy, focusing first on the share of IT output in total production, and then on how they have spread throughout the whole economy. On this second point, they point out the difficulties of conducting an accurate evaluation in the absence of appropriate indicators and comparable data covering a long period. Nevertheless, they conclude that the IT have shown a strong upward trend in France, albeit to a lesser extent than in the United States.
In the second part of the article, the authors investigate the contribution of the IT (roughly defined as computer and telecommunications hardware and software) to growth. Here, too, they emphasize the problems of making an evaluation, but conclude that the contribution to the growth of GDP in France of all the IT taken together was probably on average around 0.3% per annum between 1967 and 1999. They note that this contribution, though far from negligible, was well below the comparable figure for the United States.

Forum

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Nouvelle croissance ou vieilles lunes ?

This is a time of "new growth", thanks to the IT (information technology) and the widespread confidence, indeed conviction, that we are at the beginning of a new Kondratiev upturn, launched into a new era of stable prosperity.
Michel Godet, sceptical as always of generally accepted ideas, warns us to be cautious. True, Europe is currently enjoying a new growth spurt, which furthermore has created new jobs. But this phenomenon, here in Europe as in the United States, has little to do with the IT.
The impact of the IT obviously should not be overlooked, since they have undoubtedly helped in the development of a new economy, in particular by stimulating competition and therefore lower prices. Yet the new growth should not be overestimated on the basis of the Nasdac and the stock market bubble which will ultimately burst.
In any case, Godet argues, convinced that human beings are the only real source of wealth and that the future depends on what they want, the growth cycle theories (especially that of Kondratiev) are illusory. The new growth cannot continue without generating adverse side-effects and consequently in Europe, with its ageing population, weak and fluctuating demand.

Revue

Économie, emploi

France : une croissance plus riche en emploi

As we have stressed many times in Futuribles when discussing French economic growth, the employment response has been weak compared with other industrialized countries. Arnaud Gérardin demonstrates here that the situation is gradually getting better. In the '70s, it took an increase of at least 2.6 % in GDP to generate growth in employment. This figure fell to 2.2 % in the '80s and should come close to 1.2 % in the '90s.
The author goes on to describe the factors which have contributed to this improvement and to identify their respective influence :
- the first element is development within the sector of tertiary activities, which is important because apparent labor productivity there is generally weaker than in industry ;
- the increase in part-time work, especially since 1992, should be a second factor ;
- the development of short-term employment contracts is a third element ;
- last, the reduction of social expenditures within the framework of the quinquennial law, coupled with a moderate increase in wages, has probably contributed to the general amelioration.
Arnaud Gérardin translates the contributions into percentages : 10 % for the internal changes within the sectors of the economy, 20 % for the development of part time work, 20 to 30 % for the development of short term contractual work, and 20 to 30 % for the policy aimed at reducing social expenditures.
It is nevertheless important to note that with the number of employees and job seekers increasing in average by 140,000 per year (that means 1 % of private sector employment), the growth rate required to stabilize unemployment is greater than the rate which can keep employment constant. If about 1.2 % is sufficient today to stabilize employment, it would take 2.2 % growth to keep unemployment at a constant share of the work force.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

L’Économie mondiale de demain. Vers quel essor durable ?

L'optimisme est de mise dans cet ouvrage issu de la conférence organisée par le forum de l'OCDE sur l'avenir, les 2 et 3 décembre 1998 à Francfort, sur le thème « Le dynamisme économique du XXIe siècle : anatomie d'une longue période d'expansion ». En effet, les intervenants partent du principe que le monde se trouve face à une perspective séduisante, celle d'un nouveau boom économique engendré par la coïncidence du changement technologique (technologies de l'information ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi

États-Unis : l’emploi à l’horizon 2006

The United-States : Employment in the Year 2006
Periodically the US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes ten-year forecasts on the economy and employment in the United States. Charles du Granrut presents here the main results of forecasts to the year 2006 which were produced last year by the BLS.
These forecasts reveal that American economic growth should continue in the medium term and should generate sufficient jobs to contain unemployment at its current level. They show the differences by sector (decline in industrial employment, rise in jobs in the tertiary sector), the level of qualification and remuneration which, overall, would be in accordance with recently recorded trends.
Commenting briefly on these forecasts, the author thinks that the anticipated high performance in the American economy would more likely result from a happy conjunction of factors rather than from the advent of a "new era". He underlines on the other hand how the performance of the United States in the matter of creating jobs differs from that of France and reveals the very different methods of regulation which are at work in these two countries.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Population

The Great Population Spike and After : Reflections on the 21st Century

Dans cet ouvrage, W.W. Rostow explique que l'on peut observer le « grand pic démographique » de l'humanité au travers d'un graphique retraçant les taux de croissance de la population mondiale depuis 8000 ans avant J.C. jusqu'à l'an 8000 de notre ère. Un tel graphique montrerait, selon lui, un taux de croissance démographique moyen égal à zéro, excepté pour la période comprise entre 1776 et 2176. « C'est au cours de cette période, dit-il, que ...

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Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Innovation et croissance

Les faibles marges de manœuvre laissées à la politique conjoncturelle du fait de l'appartenance à l'Union européenne et monétaire amènent à s'interroger sur les autres instruments dont disposent les gouvernements pour infléchir la croissance et l'efficacité du système productif. Robert Boyer et Michel Didier nous invitent à une réflexion sur les moyens susceptibles d'influencer les entreprises et les amener à une démarche plus novatrice. Dans la compétition mondiale, l'innovation est la condition de la ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Turning Point. The End of the Growth Paradigm

Selon Robert Ayres, directeur du Centre de management des ressources environnementales à l'European Business School, la croissance économique, communément mesurée en termes de produit national ou intérieur brut, n'est qu'une illusion. Elle reflète peu, sinon rien, du bien-être humain en termes réels (santé, nourriture, éducation, loisirs, etc.). De plus, cette croissance économique n'avantage aujourd'hui qu'une faible proportion de la population globale. Les bénéfices du libéralisme sont affectés à une minorité alors que la majorité ...

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Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

L’Année stratégique 1998

Comme chaque année depuis sa création par l'Institut des relations internationales et stratégiques (IRIS) en 1988, L'Année stratégique propose, dans une première partie, une analyse complète des grands événements politiques, diplomatiques, économiques et militaires, région par région, et met en perspective les grands enjeux du moment. Une seconde partie est constituée par une série de tableaux reprenant les données de base et les chiffres clés économiques, politiques, démographiques et stratégiques, ainsi que des classements réalisés pays par pays ...

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Économie, emploi - Institutions

La Chine économique en l’an 2000

L'auteur, A. Wilmots, est fonctionnaire des Nations unies. Il a dirigé au début de 1981, à la requête de la République populaire de Chine, la mission d'évaluation des désastres naturels dans les provinces d'Hubei et de coordination de la coopération multilatérale. Dans cet ouvrage, il commence par prendre acte de l'exceptionnelle expansion économique de la Chine depuis 1978. Quel est l'avenir de cette croissance et des signes d'épuisement ne vont-ils pas logiquement apparaître ? Si ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail

Croître : un impératif pour l’entreprise. Pour en finir avec les stratégies réductrices

Après dix années de restructuration et de réduction de coûts, et dans une conjoncture de faible croissance, croître demeure la préoccupation majeure des entreprises. Les dirigeants qui ont appliqué des stratégies réductrices doivent maintenant sortir de cette spirale, nous disent Gertz et Baptista dans leur ouvrage. En effet, il est possible pour toutes les industries de croître, même dans un contexte de faible croissance. Les auteurs expliquent pourquoi les entreprises doivent repenser leur stratégie et se réorienter vers la croissance ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi

Le Chômage est-il une fatalité ?

Si cet ouvrage est publié dans la collection Major des Presses universitaires de France, il n'en est pas moins un essai présentant une réflexion personnelle de l'auteur nourrie des débats contemporains sur le chômage. Le but de l'auteur n'est pas d'exposer une nouvelle explication des causes du chômage ou une théorie générale du chômage et de l'emploi, mais de donner les clés de lecture de la situation en France et dans les pays ayant ...

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