Croissance économique

CR table ronde

Économie, emploi - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Des marchés mondiaux au cœur de la tourmente

Lors de la table ronde organisée par Futuribles autour du rapport Cyclope qui fête son vingt-et- unième anniversaire, Philippe Chalmin a longuement souligné la tendance actuelle à la hausse des prix des matières premières. En cette fin de septembre 2007, le prix du baril de pétrole atteint le niveau historique de 82,58 dollars tandis que le prix du blé flambe et que le coût du fret maritime n’a jamais été aussi élevé.

Note de veille

Économie, emploi

Le PIB chinois a passé le seuil des 2 000 dollars US par habitant

Fin 2006, le niveau du produit intérieur brut (PIB) par habitant de la Chine a, pour la première fois, dépassé le seuil des 2 000 dollars US. Le 11 avril 2007, Le Quotidien du Peuple, l'organe officiel du Comité central du parti communiste chinois (PCC), publiait un article examinant la signification de cette nouvelle étape du développement chinois : " What Does It Mean to Have a Per Capita GDP of US$2000? " . Les perspectives restent globalement optimistes mais sont nuancées ...

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Analyse prospective

Économie, emploi

La Chine et l’Inde : le lièvre et la tortue ?

Il est traditionnel d'opposer la vitesse de la croissance de la Chine à un développement économique de l'Inde plus lent. L' analyse développée récemment par deux chercheurs de la Brookings Institution montre que la réalité est plus complexe. Ainsi, la croissance indienne est relativement forte et a tendance à s' accélérer. En termes de facteur de croissance, la croissance chinoise est intensive en capital tandis que la productivité totale des facteurs joue un rôle relativement plus important en ...

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Analyse prospective

Économie, emploi

Economie mondiale à l’horizon 2050 : cap sur l’Asie ?

En se basant sur un modèle de croissance néoclassique, les projections du CEPII (Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales) que cette note d'alerte analyse visent à estimer les perspectives de l'économie mondiale à l'horizon 2050. Selon ces projections, les économies avancées verraient leur poids diminuer dans l'économie mondiale au profit des pays asiatiques, en particulier la Chine, l'Inde et la Corée du Sud. La hausse des niveaux de vie pourrait être significative puisque ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Population

The Possible Futures for the Indian Economy

India, like China, has increasingly fascinated Western economists and analysts. The country that calls itself "the world's largest democracy" looks to be one of the most promising economic powers of the 21st century.
Jean-Joseph Boillot, an expert on India, examines here the rather too common tendency to idealize its economic prospects. He makes use of scenarios to show the possible trends for this vast nation in the coming years and he emphasizes the many uncertainties facing the country, disagreeing with the idea that India will be a superpower by 2050. For both demographic and economic reasons, there is no guarantee that India will soon achieve a comparable growth to its Chinese neighbour. With the aid of forecasts and scenarios, Jean-Joseph Boillot highlights the many factors that could affect Indian growth prospects. In particular, he cites the results of a study produced by the Davos forum which concluded that India's economic development remains unclear and will depend above all on the political strategies it adopts.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Population

emography, Economic Activity and Growth. Why Is there Such a Disparity in Economic Growth between the United States and European Countries?

As we have already argued (Futuribles, n° 299, July-August 2004), whereas the standard of living of Europeans gradually caught up with that of the Americans in the three prosperous decades after the Second World War, the gap between them has widened again since then. What is the reason for the relative decline of Europe vis-à-vis the United States and for the varied showing from country to country within Europe? The experts disagree as to the underlying causes of these differences.
Because we are concerned with knowledge-based economies, the factors most often mentioned are the lower spending on R&D, the lags in innovation and rigidities in the labour markets of European countries, especially France. "Wrong!" say Philippe Durance, Michel Godet and Michel Martinez. Instead the explanations lie in the differences in demographic increase and the disparities in hours worked and, above all, in employment levels.
The authors' arguments come down to three factors. First, four-fifths of the difference between growth rates in the United States and Europe can be explained by the difference in rates of population increase, followed by the shorter hours worked by those in employment (an American works 25% longer hours than a French worker), and lastly the lower proportion of those in work in Europe, with significant differences among countries, for instance between Britain and France.
And here the authors proffer an argument that cannot fail to capture the attention of our readers: "Let's stop boasting about the apparent high productivity rate in France, which is largely a reflection in the statistics of the fact that the least productive workers are consigned to the scrapheap". In other words, "the hourly productivity rate is then an indicator of exclusion", and it would be better if everyone worked, so that overall activity rates rose, rather than practising discrimination in the name of maintaining productivity.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

À l’aube d’une nouvelle vague de croissance ?

At the meeting of the European Council in Lisbon in March 2000, the European Union set itself the goal of becoming by 2010 "the most dynamic and competitive knowledge-based economy in the world". As readers of Futuribles have seen on several occasions, despite this intention, Europe is falling further and further behind the United States in terms of both economic growth and competitiveness and investment in so-called intangibles (research, education, human resources, etc.), although these are major factors in the knowledge-based economy.
Henri Delanghe, Vincent Duchêne and Ugur Muldur confirm the growing gap between Europe and the United States, adding as well the risk of being overtaken by the emerging economic powers (China, India, Taiwan...). Basing their argument on the theory of long cycles (Kondratiev), the authors reckon that the industrialized countries are about to enter on a fifth wave of sustained and lasting economic growth, thanks to innovations arising from new information and communications technologies.
If indeed it turns out that this hypothesis of a new wave of prosperity is correct (which remains to be seen), two questions arise: can Europe speed up the arrival of this new growth cycle? And is its internal organization ready to deal with this new period of growth, in other words, has it developed an appropriate strategy designed for this new situation?
After a reminder of the key factors required for a new cycle of long-term growth to occur, the authors emphasize in essence that, despite the efforts encouraged in the framework of the Lisbon process, Europe does not possess all the prerequisites to drive forward this new growth spurt. The main obstacles are its under-investment in research and development, its failure to make full use of its human capital and the relative lack of competitiveness of its high-tech products. A change of strategy will clearly be essential if Europe is to avoid lagging behind the other industrialized countries (if not finding itself as leader of the emerging group!).

Revue

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Europe et États-Unis : la divergence économique

Although the standard of living of Europeans gradually caught up with that of the Americans in the three decades after World War II, it would appear that the trend has dipped since the 1980s. Economic growth in Europe has stagnated, whereas growth has continued in the United States, despite events such as the bursting of the high-tech bubble, and September 11th. Is the decline of Europe compared with the United States unavoidable? What are the reasons for it?
Alain Villemeur describes the different paths taken by the two major Western blocs. He disentangles the reasons normally given to explain the poor results achieved in Europe (inflation, high interest rates, less flexible markets, industrial decline...) and challenges their validity in the light of the remarkable counter-example provided by the Netherlands.
In his view, the key to economic recovery in Europe lies in the investment countries are prepared to make in innovation and knowledge, and the way that innovations are achieved and implemented. What matters most now is to give priority to innovations in products (which means investing in research aimed at developing new products and services) rather than in processes (i.e. attempting to improve or copy innovations in existing products). It is a European country, Sweden, that provides the model for this approach.
For Alain Villemeur, the only means of reversing the economic decline of Europe over the last 20 years lies in combining strong support for research and development and innovation (on the Swedish model) with close control of wage costs (as in the Netherlands), and ensuring that this strategy applies also to the new members of the European Union.

Revue

Économie, emploi

Quel avenir pour la Chine ?

With economic growth running at around 8% per annum for over 20 years, China is often in the headlines of the Western media. The emergence of this demographic giant on the world economic stage and its greater involvement in geopolitics, after years of choosing to remain aloof, have raised considerable concerns - which are not absurd, given the size of this new competitor. Furthermore, increasing numbers of multinational firms (sometimes based in the United States or Europe) are choosing to relocate their manufacturing activities to China, where labour is cheap and little social protection is provided. China seems to be in the process of becoming the factory for the rest of the world.
Does this mean that its future is settled and China's place among the great industrialized nations is guaranteed? Will China stay on this steep growth path in spite of its authoritarian political regime? Are there not risks of major tensions developing? What are these risks and what might happen if they materialize?
Such questions are among those raised in this special number of Futuribles devoted to China. The articles have been assembled by the members of Asie 21, a study group focussed on the future of Asia that has been meeting for several years under the aegis of the Futuribles group.
In the first article, Michel Jan provides a general overview of the Chinese situation and its prospects between now and 2020 or 2025. He starts with the country's growth targets for the next 20 years, as well as the possible consequences, especially in the social and political spheres, if they are in fact achieved. He then discusses the various strategic choices faced by the Chinese leadership if the country is to maintain its position, in particular if it opens up to the outside world. Lastly, Michel Jan suggests several scenarios for its future, ranging from "more of the same" to some degree of democratisation, as well as the possibility of collapse; the most likely, in his view, is for the present situation to continue (i.e. the country tightly controlled by an authoritarian regime), punctuated by moments of "social respite" which will be essential to prevent everything from imploding but not enough to allow China to regain its dominant economic position for many years.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Territoires, réseaux

Activités économiques et territoires. Changement de décor

Les transformations des géographies, des techniques, des modes de régulation de nos sociétés invitent à reconsidérer en permanence les rapports entre activités économiques, organisations des entreprises et territoires...À l'avenir, à quelles règles les localisations des entreprises obéiront-elles ? Les transformations socio-économiques attendues vont-elles conforter le poids du « local » ou, au contraire, accélérer la dilution de l'espace national dans un ensemble européen et mondial ? Sera-t-il encore possible de développer une politique d'aménagement du territoire qui arriverait à réconcilier ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

The Economic Impact of ICT : Measurement, Evidence and Implications

Cette étude confirme les conclusions d'une étude précédente datant de 2001, à savoir que les TIC (technologies de l'information et de la communication) constituent un moteur pour la croissance. Dans les pays où les TIC tirent la croissance, la hausse de la productivité a été soutenue, même dans la période actuelle de ralentissement économique. Ensuite, les TIC créent des activités à fort potentiel de croissance (haut débit, télécoms, e-commerce). De plus, même si les investissements technologiques ralentissent le ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Productivité et croissance

Le niveau de vie de la France, et plus largement de l'Union européenne, est inférieur d'environ 25 % à celui des États-Unis. Que s'est-il donc passé depuis les « Trente glorieuses », années fastes de rattrapage de l'Europe par rapport aux États-Unis ? Comment expliquer la rupture des évolutions relatives de productivité et de niveau de vie entre l'Union européenne et les États-Unis des années 1990 ? Par les nouvelles technologies ? Quelles réformes mettre en œuvre en France pour que ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Éducation

Éducation et croissance

Le rapport rappelle que l'éducation influe de diverses manières sur la croissance économique ; il met en valeur l'impact du niveau de développement économique et remarque que la France a un système éducatif moins adapté à l'innovation et aux nouvelles technologies que les États-Unis. Il apparaît que ses performances dans le secondaire sont dans la moyenne des partenaires de l'OCDE (Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques), que la massification et la démocratisation des universités donnent nombre ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Perspectives économiques en Afrique 2003-2004

Cette troisième édition des Perspectives économiques en Afrique présente une évaluation des évolutions économiques du continent, en s'appuyant principalement sur l'analyse approfondie de 22 pays qui, dans leur ensemble, représentent environ les deux tiers de la population de la région et les trois quarts de son PIB (produit intérieur brut). Le continent africain a retrouvé en 2003 un taux de croissance moyen de 3,6 %, soit le plus élevé des quatre dernières années, et notablement supérieur aux 2 ...

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Forum

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique

Les perspectives économiques de la Banque mondiale

Véronique Lamblin examines here how the World Bank arrives at its long-term forecasts. She first describes the variables selected (working population, rates of savings and investment, productivity), then outlines the Bank's economic outlooks for each major region of the world from now until 2015, although she stresses that these involve a high level of uncertainty.

Forum

Économie, emploi

Rétrospective et perspectives de la croissance économique sur longue période

Although she is cautious about the viability of using changes in gross domestic product as an indicator, Céline Laisney presents an overview of both past and future changes in GDP in the main regions of the world. Drawing on the work of specialist agencies such as OECD and the World Bank, she shows that the period of rapid economic growth from the 1950s to the 1970s was more the exception than the rule. In future we must therefore expect slower rates of growth, more like those of the 1950s, especially in France and in Europe generally.

Forum

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Les vases communicants de la croissance

In an analysis of the reasons for the low rate of economic growth in France, Jacques Bely emphasizes here how unhelpful it is to look for answers in contrasting the public and private sectors. In his view, an increase in the rate of economic growth will be achieved not by privatising certain public services but by improving their efficiency. Bely argues that the failure of public services to take account of this "efficiency factor" leads to a need for even greater productivity on the part of the market and competitive sector, thereby impairing the contribution of the latter to fostering growth. It is therefore essential for the French public services to acknowledge this efficiency dimension and take their inspiration from businesses in making organizational changes that will provide greater customer satisfaction at lower costs. This is one of the keys to reviving French economic growth, says Bely, and he offers some concrete proposals at the end of the article.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Population

Vieillissement et richesse des nations

Les auteurs estiment qu'à cotisations inchangées, le vieillissement est un facteur de développement : l'allongement de la durée d'inactivité incitant à une épargne plus abondante, il en résulte que le vieillissement des générations actuelles est aussi favorable aux générations futures.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Les TIC et la croissance économique

Une très abondante littérature s'est consacrée, sur les dernières années, à la question des technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC), et à leur influence sur la croissance économique. L'OCDE a joué, dans cette réflexion, un rôle de premier plan, par une variété de travaux de grande qualité qui, par les comparaisons internationales qu'ils proposent, permettent de positionner les pays de l'OCDE en termes de production et de diffusion des TIC. Il est moins ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi

Perspectives économiques de l’OCDE 2003

Malgré les incertitudes ambiantes et l'atonie actuelle de l'activité, ces Perspectives tablent toujours sur une reprise graduelle quoique peu spectaculaire de l'activité. Un tel scénario semble le plus probable même si une rechute dans la récession ne peut être exclue. Avec la fin de la guerre en Irak et la sécurisation des gisements de pétrole, la menace d'une crise pétrolière plongeant l'économie mondiale dans la récession a perdu en actualité. Toutefois, la perception d'un ...

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