Jean-François Drevet, ancien fonctionnaire à la Commission européenne, est responsable de la Tribune européenne de la revue Futuribles. Il a proposé une analyse des conséquences de la crise actuelle sur les pays européens et sur L’Union européenne.
Alors que le système des subprimes a montré toutes ses limites au cours de l'année 2008, les États-Unis ne semblent pas pour autant renoncer au principe du prêt non discriminant pour les particuliers. Preuve en est le succès croissant des reverse mortgages, ou prêts hypothécaires inversés, qui visent les seniors en manque de liquidités mais qui ne veulent pas vendre leur maison pour en obtenir.
Cette intervention s’appuie sur le document de travail intitulé « De la crise financière à la crise économique » mis en ligne le 1er décembre 2008. En premier lieu, Charles du Granrut a expliqué que les réactions des autorités publiques face à la crise financière sortaient du cadre historique classiques, et que les phénomènes observés lors de cette crise (en particulier la volatilité) se révélaient eux-mêmes plus intenses que ceux de 1929.
Much ink is still to flow on the financial crisis of autumn 2008. It is difficult as yet to evaluate the extent of the damage and if we do venture some mid- or long-term forecasts in the pages of Futuribles, we do so only with the utmost caution. It seems, in fact, to have become virtually impossible to determine how things are going to develop in the financial sphere, since the players have lost all confidence in each other and, despite intervention on an unprecedented scale, the powers that be are finding it difficult to restore trust.
Analysts have remained cautious even on the deep causes of this crisis, given that those in the world of finance themselves still find it hard to understand how matters raced so far out of their control. Is mathematical modelling, which is a key element in the operation of global financial markets, in some way to blame for the current parlous situation, and, if so, to what extent? Pierre Papon inquires here into the significant role played by that modelling, demonstrating, in substance, that mathematical tools are undoubtedly very useful in the financial field, but that they have to be regularly submitted to both theoretical and practical testing.
Last October Philippe Delalande enquired, in this journal, into the impact of the current Western financial crisis on the Chinese economy, indicating that that crisis might ultimately present an opportunity for China to stabilize its economic development at a "sustainable" level. This month Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière goes beyond this and offers an analysis of the mid- and long-term consequences of recent economic developments on the global equilibrium and, more particularly, on the influence of the Asian continent, and the ensuing issues for Europe.
After recalling demographic changes and prospects in Asia, he shows that the economic shift begun in the 1970s with the rise of Japan and confirmed in the 1990s by the "miracle" of the new industrialized countries, is currently being reaffirmed, despite the sideshow of the 1997 crisis. Hence, unless a scenario emerges in which "globalization grinds to a halt," the heart of the global economy could well come to reside lastingly in Asia, with internal (national or regional) demand as its main engine. Drawing on the relevant statistical evidence, Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière illustrates his argument by examining recent developments in, and the future prospects of, the main countries of Asia (China, India, South Korea, Taiwan etc.). Lastly, he outlines the consequences of this economic shift: competition over costs and quality of labour, an explosion in the number of consumers (the middle classes), an aggravation of the environmental situation (two elements Europe could draw on to reposition itself), geopolitical changes (the growing influence of China and India in Africa) etc.
Quels impacts auront la crise financière mondiale et, plus généralement, la dégradation actuelle de la conjoncture sur les villes et les ménages français ? Une étude du magazine L'Expansion et d'Experian permet de dresser un panorama prévisionnel de la France " d'après la crise " et confirme que les inégalités risquent fortement de se creuser.
Since mid-2007 we have been witnessing a financial crisis that originated in the now notorious "subprime crisis" which developed in the United States in 2006/07. Since most of the financial institutions concerned have international ramifications, the crisis spread, damaging the confidence of many players in the global financial system, and it continues to inspire fear regarding its possible consequences.
Since the Chinese economy is closely linked to that of the USA, on account of the many letters of credit issued in dollars, American Treasury bonds held by China and export flows to the United States, is there a risk that this economic giant will be affected by the current crisis? We should not assume so, argues Philippe Delalande: on the one hand, the conditions for a property slump, followed by a banking and stock-market crisis, do not seem present in China; on the other, the current global crisis might well enable that country to reduce its pace of growth and opt for a path of "harmonious development", provided that inflation does not take off.
Hugues de Jouvenel : Jean-Paul Betbèze, merci de venir à notre secours pour nous permettre de mieux comprendre quelle est la teneur, quels sont les motifs et éventuellement les conséquences de la crise financière en cours. Le prospectiviste, inéluctablement, face à un phénomène tel que celui-là se dit « est-ce un phénomène porteur d’avenir ou un phénomène conjoncturel ? », « est-ce un phénomène de krach momentané ou bien faut-il s’attendre à ce que cette crise financière ait des répercussions majeures sur l ...
(65 more words)
Ten years have passed since the dreadful Asian economic crisis of 1997 which seemed to put a stop to the extraordinary growth of the Asian economy at the time. But after a period of readjustment - at great cost to a large part of the population because of the lack of a social security safety-net - Asia in 2007 is once again the most dynamic region in the world.
Jean Raphaël Chaponnière looks back over the decade: after a short account of the history of Asia's growth over the long term, he recalls what led to the 1997 crisis, what the consequences were for the major countries in the region (South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, China, Japan...) and how they coped with it. He also assesses the situation in 2007, showing how China seems to have overtaken all its neighbours (aside, perhaps, from Japan) in terms of its international economic and political standing.
Lastly, he discusses the prospects for Asian growth over the next 10 to 15 years: the economic dynamism of China looks likely to continue to have a positive effect on Asia as a whole, despite some concomitant damage, especially to the environment. He also examines Asian growth in the context of globalization and its impacts on the West (Europe, United States).