Ce rapport de l'OCDE étudie les politiques agricoles de huit pays représentant un tiers de la production agricole mondiale : l'Afrique du Sud, le Brésil, la Chine, l'Inde, la Bulgarie, la Roumanie, la Russie et l'Ukraine. Il ressort de cette étude que, dans la plupart de ces pays, la part des recettes agricoles brutes issues des subventions du soutien public est inférieure a 15 %, alors qu'elle est en moyenne de 30 % dans les pays membres de ...
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En 2000, l'économie mondiale est dominée par six groupes de pays : les États-Unis, les 15 pays de l'Union européenne (UE), l'Inde, la Chine, le Japon et les six pays d'Asie du Sud-Est (Singapour, la Malaisie, l'Indonésie, la Thaïlande, la Corée du Sud et Taiwan). En termes démographiques, ces six groupes de pays représentent 58 % de la population mondiale ; en termes de PIB (produit intérieur brut), ils représentent 73 % de la production mondiale. Sur la base ...
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Ce rapport, qui actualise la précédente édition datant de 1998, met le développement chinois en perspective en embrassant son histoire et son futur du Xe siècle au XXIe siècle. Cela permet de montrer qu'il s'agit moins d'une émergence économique que d'une réémergence : au Xe siècle en effet, selon les estimations de l'économiste Angus Maddison, la Chine était la première du monde en termes de revenu par habitant, et ce leadership a duré jusqu'au XVe ...
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Bates Gill est l'un des meilleurs spécialistes des questions internationales liées à l'Asie orientale. Il a notamment codirigé le premier volume du projet China: The Balance Sheet, publié en 2006 (cf. BP n°40, juillet-août 2006). « Étoile montante dans la constellation des grandes puissances, la Chine et sa nouvelle diplomatie de sécurité représentent des opportunités et des défis essentiels pour la communauté internationale, pour la région Asie-Pacifique, et pour les États-Unis ». Tel est le point de départ de ...
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L'AIE a élaboré deux scénarios, un scénario de référence (sans changement de politique) et un scénario alternatif (plus économe en énergie) à l'horizon 2030. Dans le scénario de référence, les besoins énergétiques de la planète devraient dépasser leur niveau de 2005 de 55 % à l'horizon 2030, augmentant à un rythme de 1,8 % par an. La demande atteindrait alors 17,7 milliards de tonnes d'équivalent pétrole (tep), contre 11,4 milliards de tep en 2005. La ...
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The American trade deficit reached 6% of the country's GDP in 2005, and it is likely to be close to 7% in 2006. Moreover, the rise in the price of oil, on which America is especially dependant, threatens to make this situation even worse. In addition, the budget deficit has also reached record levels and, according to many American analysts, it may well continue to grow at least until 2009. But as long as Americans are reluctant to save, the U.S. debt will be financed by foreign capital.
By contrast, China is managing to combine rapid economic growth with stable public finances: China runs a balance of payments surplus alongside a tiny budget deficit (1.5% in 2005). It uses its trade surpluses to build up dollar reserves and is becoming a major creditor of the United States.
In this article Philippe Delalande offers a comparison between the contrasting - yet increasingly interdependent - financial positions of these two major economies. He explains that the dual U.S. deficits (trade and budget) can be maintained because of the special status of the dollar abroad. Confidence in the dollar and in the American economy does not falter and the United States becomes ever more dependant on foreign capital, whereas the Chinese authorities have adopted the opposite policy, strictly regulating foreign investment in China and maintaining their currency, the yuan, undervalued vis-à-vis the dollar but tied to it.
The author explains that this is because the two countries' financial positions are more and more closely linked as a result of this situation and the increasing trade between them.
China, with its phenomenal economic growth, has for some years been facing a rate of development, especially of manufacturing, that is leading to serious environmental problems (air, water and land pollution, and a build-up of waste of all kinds). This situation is generating considerable costs which, given China's prospects for further rapid growth, could well rise very rapidly.
As China has woken up to these problems, the government has, according to this article, launched a new strategy: the "circular economy", which aims to use resources as efficiently as possible and to protect the environment, on the model of industrial ecology. In order to do so, China is in the process of developing a framework of regulations and standards that the authors set out here, having first explained what the circular economy involves. They also describe various pilot schemes (eco-parks, eco-cities) created around the country, reflecting the strong commitment of the local authorities to these projects. Lastly, the authors analyse the advantages and drawbacks of this type of regulatory framework, as well as its chances of success.
South Asia is in the midst of an economic boom, yet paradoxically its growth is the product of international rather than intra-regional surface trade. The barrier of the Himalayas, the Hindu Kush and the Karakoram range creates enormous problems for the construction of roads, railways and pipelines. Nevertheless recently the countries within the region, led by China, have been investing heavily in developing their overland transport networks. In addition to roads and railways, gas and oil pipelines are also being planned.
Alain Lamballe describes here the projects to extend these networks that are now under way or envisaged for the future. He stresses the economic and strategic importance of these efforts. Improvements in the links between China and the various countries of South Asia will indeed allow them to increase their volume of trade with each other (for the moment trade is mainly seaborne trade). This development will be a mixed blessing for Southeast Asian nations, Lamballe explains, because they will have to cope with a massive influx of Chinese goods.
L'usage croissant de l'automobile en Chine induit une hausse drastique des besoins en carburant et des importations pétrolières. Alors que l'augmentation de cette demande intervient dans une conjoncture défavorable du prix de l'énergie, qui semble appelée à perdurer, les autorités chinoises sont désormais contraintes de favoriser le recours à des énergies alternatives, en particulier celles qui sont liées à l'usage des biocarburants. Ce sujet avait déjà fait l'objet d'un texte paru sur le ...
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China is much praised for its economic performance and its rapid growth; much less mention is made of its diplomatic activities even though they are very persistent. Alain Lamballe unveils some aspects of Chinese policies in South Asia, showing how China is forging close links with its South Asian neighbours, especially India, but also Pakistan and Burma.
By building infrastructure, financing strategic bases and developing industrial linkages China is increasingly strengthening its position throughout the Asian continent for a combination of economic, political and security reasons. The Chinese strategy, aimed at offsetting the influence of the United States in the region, could in the long run help to reduce some regional tensions (Kashmir, in particular) and upset the international status quo, especially if India joins in. According to Alain Lamballe, the 21st century could then indeed be the century of Asia.
La vente de 150 avions Airbus à la Chine au mois de décembre 2005 permet à Pierre Bonnaure de développer des analyses sur la croissance chinoise et de s'interroger sur les perspectives mondiales du transport aérien. Les deux questions sont liées puisque les ventes d'avions à la Chine s'accompagnent de transferts de technologies et que la Chine semble nourrir des ambitions fortes dans le domaine du transport aérien. Ce secteur apparaît donc comme un observatoire privilégié des ...
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La place de la Chine dans l'économie mondiale est croissante. L' « usine du monde », comme on l'appelle parfois, commence à monter en gamme. Mais pour devenir un acteur économique mondial, avec ses propres marques, il lui manque encore deux compétences primordiales : - la capacité à créer de nouveaux produits et services, c'est-à-dire à innover ; - la capacité à vendre des biens et services de marque chinoise à l'étranger, c'est-à-dire la dimension marketing international. Sur la base de ...
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The impressive economic growth of China and its increasingly important place in international trade are much discussed in the media, business circles and even by Western governments. How can a country governed by an authoritarian communist regime become part of the market economy without major problems and flourish in it? This question applies to China, the most striking example, but also to Vietnam, its Asian alter ego.
Philippe Delalande analyses here how the Chinese and Vietnamese economies are adapting to the market. In particular, he shows how the Communist Party in both countries is trying to renew its legitimacy with the public in order to be able to continue to foster economic growth, and how it is opening itself up to national economic pressures so as to incorporate them in policy decisions and ultimately to control them better. Furthermore, he stresses the way in which both countries "make use of free market globalisation without submitting to it" (and angering their trading partners). Finally, he highlights the essential positive feature of both authoritarian regimes: the long-term confidence that allows them to embark on ten-year development strategies for tackling major issues such as energy, infrastructures and education...
Although this alliance between communism and the market economy is acrobatic as well as disturbing for Western commentators, it appears to work, says Philippe Delalande, and could indeed last longer than some people expect.
Not only does China cover a vast area (more than 9.5 million km2), the country has rarely exhibited any expansionist impulses. However, this might change, as Rémi Perelman argues here, because of its growing need for raw materials, and in particular energy, for which it depends heavily on foreign suppliers.
In order to strengthen its supply lines, China is establishing footholds abroad, especially in Burma and Pakistan. This diplomatic strategy, which Pentagon experts call the "string of pearls", indicates the clearsightedness of the Chinese and their readiness to do all they can to safeguard the basis of the country's economic growth. This new attitude is worrying for the United States, which is doing much the same thing in the region, for similar reasons.
Since the end of 2004, when elections brought a party explicitly in favour of independence from China into the governing coalition in Taiwan, the relations between China and Taiwan have regularly been in the news. The commentators are anxious about the growing tension between the two governments and the risks of open conflict.
In this article Rémi Perelman recalls the background and the key phases in the relationship between China and Taiwan. He sets out who the protagonists are and what position each takes, from maintaining the status quo via the threat of invading the island to declaring Taiwan's independence. He also makes clear what support the Taiwanese government might expect, including from abroad - in particular, would the United States really risk conflict with China if matters deteriorate? Finally, Rémi Perelman offers several scenarios for possible developments between 2006 and 2020, stressing nonetheless how little it would be in China's interest, from the point of view of its economic growth, to enter into a period of political upheaval.
SOMMAIRE Un monde plus sûr ? Tendances lourdes La pérennisation de l'asymétrie des conflits Multiplication des acteurs internationaux Développement de la criminalité transnationale Fusion sécurité intérieure et sécurité extérieure Le Moyen-Orient, pivot géopolitique des conflits mondiaux Incertitudes majeures Nouvelles instabilités régionales Les modes de régulation de l'espace géostratégique Place de la Chine dans l'échiquier régional et mondial Prégnance du terrorisme non conventionnel Microscénarios Ms 1 : Le monde poudrière Ms 2 : Une régulation internationale revisitée Ms 3 : Nouvelle bipolarisation
The city-state of Singapore in South East Asia, with its 4 million inhabitants living on 581 km2, forms a bridge between Malaysia and Indonesia. It has always played a special role, partly because of its geographical position on the route linking the Indian Ocean and the Far East, and partly because of its economic growth early on, which has been a model for the rest of the region. With the increasingly rapid economic development of its big neighbours, China and India, the Singaporean economy is now facing competition in most of the sectors that allowed it to succeed at the global level. The time has therefore come for Singapore to evolve new relationships with these countries. Rémi Perelman describes the main trends, showing how Singapore is holding its own with China and India, both economically and culturally (especially with regard to education). This position will naturally strengthen the international role played by the city-state.
China is now an important economic power, having enjoyed a high rate of economic growth for several years and attracted many Western firms. Its spectacular growth has allowed it to start to become an industrialized country from being a developing one. The transition period will probably last for some while; however, a certain number of problems may well emerge, in particular with regard to energy issues.
It will indeed be difficult for China to produce the energy it needs to maintain its current rate of growth and to meet the needs of its people as they adopt gradually more Western lifestyles, especially the automobile. It will be even harder if this development is to be "sustainable".
In this article Rémi Perelman elucidates the Chinese energy situation, describing the massive increase in energy demand, the shortfall in domestic energy resources despite ambitious infrastructure programmes, and hence the risks of a growing dependence on energy supplies from abroad. In his view the key question is whether, in the medium to long term, China's energy requirements will lead the regime to open up even more to the outside world and, as a consequence, this will bring about substantial political changes as well.
In this article Rémi Perelman offers two scenarios for the way that relations may develop between the two regional giants undergoing "reconversion": China and Russia.
During a period of more than 20 years, despite their ideological links, Maoist China and the Soviet Union maintained their own kind of Cold War, assembling troops on their common borders because of fears of invasion. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Sino-Russian relations were normalized, as each country tried to secure its place on the world economic stage and resume its role as a "normal" participant in international relations.
While China quickly became a key economic player, Russia has struggled to make headway in this area. Both nations nevertheless remain important political and military powers, and their position in international discussions cannot be ignored. Along with the European Union, they constitute the only opposition to American dominance. Their effectiveness would be all the greater if they cooperated with each other.
Taking as his starting-point various recent instances of collaboration between the two countries and, more broadly, with the Central Asian republics, Rémi Perelman outlines two scenarios for 2025: in the first, the current situation continues, with each of the two nations trying to improve its own position but without hurting the other, though also without becoming a real threat to North America; in the second, moves are made towards pan-Asian regional integration and this creates a genuinely three-way system - but perhaps only two-way if Europe does not manage to maintain its position ...