Cadre institutionnel

Bibliography

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Les Émotions

Les Émotions

Quelle chance pour les fidèles de Futuribles que Jean-Philippe Toussaint ait choisi la prospective comme toile de fond de son nouveau cycle romanesque. Après La Clé USB il y a un an,le deuxième volet de ce cycle, Les Émotions, nous permet de retrouver les aventures du prospectiviste Jean Detrez. Devenu au début des années 2000, à l’âge de 40 ans, fonctionnaire européen à Bruxelles, le héros a commencé sa carrière à Futuribles à Paris (p. 142). Mais, c ...

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Note de veille

Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Classer les universités ?

La science joue un rôle de plus en plus important dans la compétition internationale dont la course engagée pour mettre au point des vaccins contre le coronavirus est un exemple. Elle se joue entre des centres de recherche académique, des universités et des organismes de recherche comme le CNRS (Centre national de la recherche scientifique) en France et la Société Max-Planck en Allemagne, qui souhaitent attirer dans leurs laboratoires des professeurs, des chercheurs et des doctorants de haut niveau, et ...

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Forum

Économie, emploi - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

A Return to Earth in Prospect?

Within the framework of the Forum Futuribles is devoting to the Covid-19 crisis and its impact, various experts have been invited to react and share their thoughts on the current situation ‘in the thick of the crisis’, as it were. In this article Dominique Bourg and Sophie Swaton, longstanding proponents of ecological transition, present an agenda for action which they had begun to develop, as part of a collective, before the crisis occurred, but which has now become all the more urgent. Calling for a ‘Return to Earth’, the manifesto they are publishing in June, a week before this issue appears, formulates 35 concrete proposals for setting our economies, societies and institutions on a planet-friendly path of transition. Dominique Bourg and Sophie Swaton lay out the broad outlines of these proposals here, among them the establishment of a parliamentary chamber devoted to long term considerations, and the introduction of an ecological transition income…

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

Le Déméter 2020

Le Déméter 2020

Consacré à la place de l’Europe dans la mondialisation et aux transformations du commerce et des politiques agricoles, LeDéméter 2020 propose 10 analyses de fond (partie « Agrosphères »), esquisse huit réflexions prospectives (partie « Regards d’avenir ») et rassemble les grands chiffres de l’alimentation mondiale (partie « Repères »). En ouverture, Sébastien Abis et Matthieu Brun (Club Demeter) décrivent les enjeux moteurs pour la prochaine décennie : probable retrait des États-Unis des affaires internationales mais mondialisation des corridors d’approvisionnement d’une ...

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Revue

Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

‘Energy Europe’: A Reality that will Contribute to the Green Deal

It was by way of energy (mainly coal at the time) that the countries of Europe laid the foundations for their union in the 1950s (the Treaty of the European Coal and Steel Community, signed in 1951). Though that community ended in 2002 (integrated into the Union), questions of energy have nonetheless remained crucial on the European Union’s political agenda. They have loomed even larger in the context of the battle against climate change, as the EU occupies a special place in the world with ambitious objectives in terms of transition to carbon neutrality.

What are the issues for the European Union in this energy transition? And what measures have been put in place to achieve it? What might be in a European Green Deal of the kind that the EU Commission which took office at the end of 2019 has raised? As part of this second instalment in the series Futuribles is devoting to climate and energy questions, Thomas Pellerin-Carlin lays out the present realities and objectives of this ‘Energy Europe’.

Revue

Institutions - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

The Obstacles to Energy Transition: The Ideological and Socio-political Resistance

In late August 2018, the French Minister for Ecological Transition Nicolas Hulot, who had been in post for a little more than a year, threw in the towel. As he saw it, it had to be admitted that, with the best will in the world (and one couldn’t deny that he had that), it was impossible to implement an ecological transition worthy of the name without mobilizing all the parties concerned, including economic and institutional actors, in all sectors. Effecting ecological transition is a systemic undertaking; it involves the support and coordination of everyone and cannot succeed otherwise.

As we have seen in the various articles already published in the series Futuribles has devoted to energy and climate issues since last March, France and Europe have great ambitions for transition to carbon neutrality. And yet, as Jean Haëntjens shows here, confirming Nicolas Hulot’s observation, there are still very many obstacles to the success of such a transition, and they are very often ideological and socio-political in nature. Above and beyond individual behaviour, which certainly has to change (and which has to be encouraged to evolve), it is in fact at the level of transformations of socio-technical systems (transport, energy, agriculture…) and their financing that the main obstructions occur. Given this finding, and the complex interactions involved, will the ecological emergency at last shift the dial?

Tribune

Économie, emploi - Entreprises, travail - Société, modes de vie

Alarme, citoyens ! Organisons notre rebond !

Le Conseil économique et social de la région (CESER) Hauts-de-France, présidé par Laurent Degroote, a auditionné André-Yves Portnoff le 25 février 2020, pour qu’il présente les principales recommandations de son dernier ouvrage, coécrit avec Hervé Sérieyx [1]. Nous relayons ici cette communication prononcée devant les quelque 150 membres du CESER Hauts-de-France. Préambule Comme allait le faire le président Macron le 13 mars dernier, Hervé Sérieyx et moi avons souligné, dans notre ouvrage, la nécessité de nous délivrer du modèle ...

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Bibliography

Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Intelligence artificielle. Une approche européenne axée sur l’excellence et la confiance

Intelligence artificielle. Une approche européenne axée sur l’excellence et la confiance

Le 19 février 2020, La Commission européenne a lancé une consultation sur l’intelligence artificielle (IA) par le biais d’un Livre blanc, invitant toutes les parties prenantes à soumettre leurs commentaires d’ici le 19 mai 2020. Cette nouvelle initiative se situe dans la suite de plusieurs communications récentes sur le sujet [1] : en décembre 2018, la stratégie européenne de l’IA [2] et le plan coordonné avec les États membres ; en 2019, renforcer la confiance dans l’IA ...

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Note de veille

Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Une loterie pour le financement des projets de recherche ?

Le financement des projets de recherche est une préoccupation permanente pour les chercheurs, et un véritable casse-tête pour les agences nationales de recherche qui doivent opérer une sélection sévère des projets qu’ils peuvent financer avec leur budget. En France, les laboratoires de recherche publics (universités et organismes de recherche) reçoivent une dotation financière annuelle de base censée couvrir leur fonctionnement, souvent difficilement ; celle-ci doit être complétée par des financements sur projets qui leur permettent de s’équiper, d’accueillir ...

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Revue

Institutions - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

The Environmental Community: Who Can Advance the Environmental Cause in France?

With this issue 435 of Futuribles, we begin a new series of articles on energy questions and climate change — an enormous subject, the systemic character of which became clear to us when the French Minister of Ecological Transition Nicolas Hulot resigned in late August 2018. Hulot deplored the lack of greater — political and popular — support to enable real influence to be exerted on government policy and an ambitious project of ecological transition to be promoted in the face of the challenges posed by climate change. In this first instalment, we concern ourselves with the question of the actors involved in environmental questions: who are they, what weight do they have, and what are their actual motivations?

Daniel Boy, a specialist in public opinion and political ecology in France, offers a broad conspectus of environmental actors, from the supranational to the local level and ordinary French citizens, taking in national public bodies, elected or consultative, on the way. He shows, for example, what their positions are on ecological questions, how that has evolved, and how it might put them in a position to act (or not) in this area.

Note de veille

Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Prédire l’avenir avec des algorithmes ?

Si tout le monde a entendu parler du système de crédit social en Chine, qui vise à récompenser ou punir les citoyens en fonction de leur comportement, les algorithmes se développent dans d’autres domaines et pays avec une visée plus prédictive. Ce type d’outil implique systématiquement d’être alimenté par une large base de données. Au Royaume-Uni, 140 collectivités locales sur les 408 que compte le pays ont investi dans des systèmes de prédiction des problèmes de comportement ...

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Chronique européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

Institutional Prospects for the European Union

After the May 2019 elections, the European Parliament has begun a new term of office and a number of European institutions have changed leader or leadership team (the Central Bank, the Commission, the Parliament etc.). Will this institutional renewal enable the European Union to improve its operation? This is a hope that might be harboured, even if, as this column reminds us, it is very difficult to make a structure of this size work well and to unite the visions and aspirations of 28 member states, even in purely institutional terms. Nevertheless, the increased responsibilities granted to the European Parliament, the continued advance toward more democratic working and the way the institutions have withstood the various crises of recent decades are encouraging signs that the new European Commission will have to strive to reinforce.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

À la recherche de l’Europe sociale

À la recherche de l’Europe sociale

Encore davantage que le prétendu « déficit démocratique », le déficit social de la construction européenne a fait l’objet de nombreux ouvrages, souvent partisans, qui ont trouvé commode de dénoncer l’« Europe ultralibérale », comme Georges Marchais avait dénoncé « l’Europe du grand capital », parce qu’ils étaient en fait hostiles à la construction européenne. Pourtant, les europhobes britanniques font la critique inverse, en lui reprochant son prétendu excès de dirigisme. Dans un cas comme dans l’autre, l’important est de ...

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Revue

Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Strategic Foresight in the European Parliament

Following the May 2019 elections, the European Parliament begins a new term of office and a number of European institutions will subsequently see a change of leadership (Central Bank, Commission, Council, Parliament etc.). This may be the opportunity for the European Union to acquire new political momentum. If that is the case, will European policies match up to the major future challenges that are looming? More generally, how are long-term issues factored in by the European institutions?

Drawing on her experience, Danièle Réchard-Spence, who heads the unit charged with identifying and analysing the major current developmental trends for the European Parliament, shows us what strategic foresight consists in within that institution and how it feeds into the parliament’s work. Though it is never easy to assess the true influence of foresight studies on parliamentary decisions and action, it remains very instructive to understand how those studies are produced and disseminated among our representatives in the European Parliament, which is what this article by Danièle Réchard-Spence seeks to do.

Bibliography

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

D’une révolution à l’autre. Mémoires

D’une révolution à l’autre. Mémoires

Il faut lire le livre de Philippe Herzog dont j’ai tardé à rendre compte, notamment parce qu’il me semblait particulièrement pertinent d’en évoquer les principaux enseignements à l’approche des prochaines élections européennes. Cet ouvrage, sous-titré « Mémoires », est en effet plus qu’une autobiographie, un récit très vivant de 50 ans d’histoire politique, économique et sociale. C’est surtout un livre dans lequel l’auteur tire de cette période et de son expérience de très utiles ...

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Analyse prospective

Géopolitique - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement

L’Iran : dynamiques d’une puissance en transition

Depuis très longtemps, l’Iran est une puissance de première importance sur la scène internationale. La centralité stratégique de ce pays repose sur une histoire et une géographie. Quarante ans après la révolution islamique, l’Iran demeure incontournable mais inclassable. Doté de grandes ressources en hydrocarbures, le pays souffre d’une série de vulnérabilités économiques, liées à la fois aux limites structurelles de son modèle de développement, à la rigidité de son système politique et à son isolement persistant sur ...

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Forum

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Population

Pension Reform: Issues and Hazards. Don’t Throw Out the Supplementary Schemes with the Bismarckian Bathwater

For a very long time now the future of pensions has posed a problem in France, mainly on account of the trend toward an imbalance between the number of workers contributing to the scheme and the number of inactive seniors. Many parametric reforms have already been adopted, though these have proved notoriously inadequate when it comes to providing sustainable remedies for pension funding problems. French President Emmanuel Macron has, therefore, declared his intention to carry out structural reform aimed at replacing the basic and supplementary schemes – there is a total of 42 of these – with a single points-based system in which the value of the points would be the main adjustment variable.

The High Commission for Pension Reform (HCRR) is tasked with implementing this reform which has been the object of fierce debate. That fact is attested here in the argument presented by Jean-Claude Angoulvant, who sees it as having two major shortcomings. The first is the desire to unify all schemes, overlooking the disparities between them and lumping together independent and categorial supplementary schemes, which he regards as being quite well managed. The second failing is the decision to have the system run by the state, which is a very poor long-term manager, rather than by the social partners and, in so doing, shifting the pension system from an insurance-based to a ‘Beveridgian’ logic. In keeping with our usual understanding of our Forum feature, this article expresses a viewpoint intended to stimulate our readers’ thinking on a reform project that is still under discussion.

Forum

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Population

Pensions: Full Steam Ahead to the Unified Scheme!

Following on from the opening Forum article in this issue by Jean-Claude Angoulvant on the pension reforms that are currently in the pipeline, Jacques Bichot, whose thoughts on this subject we have published regularly, calls for the shift to a unified scheme to be speeded up in France. A reform of this scope actually has to be undertaken as early as possible in a presidential term. But in order that the future unified pension scheme can operate simply, without obviating the need to take account of the specifics of different occupations and careers, he suggests that use be made of the (non-state) pension funds. These are, in his view, the appropriate instruments for developing the tailor-made options which make it possible to respond to these particularities and to support the process of unifying the various pension schemes.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

European Union: Update

This May-June issue of Futuribles comes out a few weeks before the European elections that will lead to a renewal of the EU parliament and the arrival of new representatives of the European citizenry, who should be sitting until 2024. Preparations for these elections are taking place in a particular context: foot-dragging around the details of Brexit, rising populism, migratory pressures, a tense international context etc. And, like previous elections, there is a danger they will serve as a pretext for the settling of national quarrels rather than the discussion of shared European political issues.

This is a great pity since, as Jean-François Drevet stresses in this 100th European column, the issues are very real and there are still reasons to believe in Europe. This is the case at the institutional level where, despite some cases of deadlock, the Union has shown unexpected juridical resilience with respect to the test of Brexit; it is also the case in terms of sovereignty, where some policies (for example, around tax) have revealed their limitations when restricted to the national level.

The sphere of foreign policy remains, where there are more potential stumbling blocks and the lack of strategic vision and unity of action are still all too evident. But, were there to be a genuine effort to educate the public on the part of the pro-European parties, showing the citizens what the (current and potential) strength of the Union consists in, then the glimmer of a possibility of resolving a number of their problems could emerge through a change of the level at which political power is exercised.

Note de veille

Géopolitique - Institutions

La Macédoine à un tournant

En votant les amendements permettant de changer la Constitution macédonienne, le 11 janvier 2019, le Parlement de Skopje a fait un grand pas pour solder la dispute qui durait depuis 28 ans avec le voisin grec. Mais le chemin pour rejoindre l’Union européenne (UE) s’annonce encore long. La Macédoine est devenue la « Macédoine du Nord » : le 11 janvier dernier, c’est par une majorité des deux tiers (81 sur 120), que les députés de Skopje ont validé les ...

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Editorial

Éducation - Institutions

Enseignement supérieur : pour quoi faire ?

Au-delà des revendications en lien avec l’évolution des mœurs (celle des garçons de pouvoir aller dans les chambres des filles au sein des résidences universitaires), de la contestation de l’impérialisme américain (sur fond de guerre au Viêt-nam), les manifestations du printemps 1968 en France reposaient sur une vive contestation de l’enseignement supérieur. On y comptait alors de l’ordre de 500 000 étudiants au profil social très homogène (un enfant d’ouvrier avait 1,4 chance sur ...

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Revue

Éducation - Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques

Higher Education: the French Model in Question

Half a century has passed since the student revolt of May 1968 and it has to be said that higher education in France has since been democratized, there being more than 2.5 million students in 2016, as against some 500,000 at the time. But has that democratization been accompanied by efficiency (in terms of employment, excellence — including in research — adaptation to technological and scientific change and globalization, etc.)? Among other things, recent difficulties encountered by the higher-education student recruitment system, sustained international competition between educational institutions, the existence of disciplinary silos and the administrative complexity of the institutions concerned, despite regular attempts at reform, give grounds for doubt. It is for this reason that Futuribles has chosen to devote a dossier in this issue to the subject of higher education, a dossier to which Jean-François Cervel makes the opening contribution with an examination of the French model.

After analysing the way the system operates (it has evolved relatively little over time and favours France’s Grandes Écoles over universities in the classic sense of the term), Jean-François Cervel stresses its limitations in the current context of mass higher education and internationalized teaching. He outlines the developments there have been in the last decade and a half, and the efforts made, mainly by the universities, to keep abreast of these and invest in areas of future potential. Things are changing, but there is still much to do. Hence the importance, which Cervel stresses here, of rethinking the system and adapting its purposes and goals to the world of the future, which requires, among other things, a degree of administrative simplification and consolidation of structures. The proposals formulated by Jean-François Cervel are intended to make a contribution to current government thinking aimed at reforming higher education and research in France and at reviving the country’s competitiveness.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Two Voices for Europe: Towards a Revival of the European Union

A change has been underway in Europe for some months now. In the context of the announcement of the UK’s departure from the European Union and weakened US leadership from an unpredictable president, the voice of the EU may well assume particular significance and begin to resonate internationally. If we add to this encouraging prospects for economic growth and a proactive attitude on the part of the presidents of the European Commission and France, it does not seem far-fetched to dream of a genuine revival of the European project.

This at least is hinted at by Catherine Vielledent in this article, drawing on two speeches from last September by Jean-Claude Juncker and Emmanuel Macron, which both seem to be moving in the direction of such a stimulus to the Union and to European (economic, social, monetary etc.) integration. This article highlights the respective proposals of the two presidents on this question, their points of convergence and the perspectives they open up for the EU. It also stresses the need not to miss the window of opportunity, the next European elections being scheduled for a little over a year from now, in May 2019.

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions

Catalonia, Kurdistan, Scotland — What Right to Independence?

The political crisis Spain is going through after Catalonia’s referendum on self-determination and the direct rule imposed on that community until the regional elections of 21 December 2017 (the current issue of Futuribles went to press before that date) has played its part in rekindling debate on the potential independence of some European territories. Brexit had opened up the debate by raising questions over the status of Northern Ireland and Scotland. The same debate flares up regularly between Walloons and Flemings in Belgium or with regard to Corsica’s position in France etc. It is the aim of this first European column of 2018 to assess where we are today with the question of the right to independence within the framework of the EU, so far as territories like Catalonia, Kurdistan or Scotland are concerned. Jean-François Drevet draws on the statute and case law of the Union, and also on earlier experiences in Europe (in the Balkans, for example) or across the Atlantic (Quebec). Above and beyond the different ways different communities are assessed (“a double standard”?), he shows how complex such questions are and how naïve it is to assume that the settlement of regional independence demands on the Old Continent could be accelerated or simplified at the European level.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Institutions

Document de réflexion sur l’avenir des finances de l’UE

Document de réflexion sur l’avenir des finances de l’UE

Dans le cadre d’un processus initié au lendemain du vote du Brexit, la Commission européenne a publié une série de « documents de réflexion » pour illustrer une approche générale sur le futur de l’Europe [1]. Ces documents de réflexion abordent des points a priori essentiels pour l’avenir du continent, et de l’Union en particulier : dimension sociale (avril 2017), maîtrise de la mondialisation (mai), approfondissement de l’Union économique et monétaire (mai), défense (juin). Face à des dossiers ...

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